Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3,3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 V.B Justification of the War (11 Vols.) Internal Documents (9 Vols.) 4. The Kennedy Administration: (2 Vols.) Book II Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 TOP SECRET - SENSITIVE UNITED STATES - VIETNAM RELATIONS VIETNAM K FORCE OFFICE OF THE S ETARY OF DEFEN #/3 JTOP SECRET - SENSITIVE Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . TOP SECRET - Sensitive wbA* U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR - INTERNAL DOCUMENTS - The Kennedy Administration: January 196I - November 1963 BOOK II 5*o v **r TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive V.B.l*. U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR -- INTERNAL DOCUMENTS The Kennedy Administration: January I96I - November 1963 Foreword -. This volume contains a collection of internal U.S. Government docu- ments and position papers regarding U.S. policy toward Vietnam. The volume of materials for this period is so large as to preclude the inclusion in such a collection of more than a sample of the docu- ments in the files. Those classified materials that are included, however, were circulated at the highest levels of the Government and either bore directly on the process of policy formation or were decision -making instruments. The collection is organized chrono- logically and devoted exclusively to the Kennedy years. A separate volume covers the Johnson Administration, BOOK I : January thru December 1961 BOOK II : January 1962 thru October 1963 / TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 O O r C/> Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Dale: 201 1 ; ■ T TOP SECRET - Sensitive V.B.4. U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR — INTERNAL DOCUMENTS The Kennedy Administration: January I961 - November 1963 Contents and ♦ Chronological List of Documents 196l . Page 1. General Lansdale reports on his January visit to Vietnam: "The U.S. should recognize that Vietnam is in a critical condition and should treat it as a combat area of the cold war,,," He recommends strong support for Diem personally as the best available South Vietnamese leader, and the prompt transfer of Ambassador Durbrow, whose relations with Diem axe poor. Memo for Secretary of Defense, 17 January 1961 . . . 1 2. Embassy Saigon, is advised that Kennedy has approved Counter- Insurgency Plan (prepared by previous Administration) calling for increases in U.S. support for Vietnamese armed forces, contingent on reforms by Diem. State to Saigon f IO5I*. 3 February 1961 Ik 3. The President requests the SecDef to examine means for j placing more emphasis on the development of counter guer.- rilla forces. HSAM 2, 3 February 1961 . . 17 k. The Secretaiy of Defense is instructed to report his views on actions in the near future to launch guerrilla opera- tions in Viet Minh territory. HSAM 28, 9 March 1961....... 18 5, The JCS comment on the recommendations of Lt Gen Trapnell. In addition to the Trapnell recommendations, the JCS suggest that the U.S. provide Defense support funds on the same basis for 170,000 forces as for 150,000; that the U.S. pro- vide MAP support for the entire 68, 000 -man Civil Guard; and that the U.S. exploit these contributions to induce the GVH to accept the Counter Insurgency Plan. Memorandum reflects conflict of views between MAAG and Hnbassy in Saigon. JCS Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, JCSM 228 -6l, 11 April 1961 . 19 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 r TOP SECRET - Sensitive Si Page 6. Unsigned paper , apparently by Lansdale, proposes a Presi- dential directive organizing a Task Force to come up with an approved plan of action in Vietnam, The goals of U.S. policy in Vietnam fall into three interrelated parts: (l) pacifi- cation^ (2) stabilization and (3) unification of Vietnam under ant i -communist government. Tasks are outlined in this memorandum to accomplish these three goals. Paper in Deputy Secretary of Defense Task Force file, 19 April 1961.. 22 7# General Lansdale provides a detailed description of Presi- dent Diem and his family apparently intended for Vice ', President Johnson's use. Lansdale first met Diem in Saigon in 195'+- "Here is our toughest ally... a 60-year old bache- lor who gave up romance with his childhood sweetheart- . .to devote his life to his country." Lansdale Memorandum for Deputy Secretary of Defense, 25 April 1961 "36 8. In view of the serious military deterioration within South Vietnam and in order to accomplish the U.S. objective of preventing communist domination of the South, this first draft of the Vietnam Task Force report calls for a compre- hensive political, economic and military program of U.S. support. Among other recommendations are an increase in MAAG and MAP and a visit by the Vice President in the near future. Task Force Draft "Program of Action," 26 April 19 6l . . - k2 9 # The effect of a political settlement in Laos would be (l) to inhibit U.S. assistance in preventing a communist take-over in SVN; and (2) to permit an expansion of the VC effort in SVN owing to the greater possibilities for uninhibited in- filtration j and (3) give complete control to the North Vietnamese of the three passes through the Annamite Moun- tains. With an expanded training program in SVTT, however, the GVN should be able to defend itself even in the event of a Laotian settlement. Second Draft "Laos Annex" to Task Force report, 28 April 1961 58 10. Attorney General Kennedy asks the question "Where would be . =- the best place to stand and fight in SEA — where to draw the line?" Secretary McNamara thinks the best place to take a stand is in Thailand and SVN. General Decker thinks there is no good place to fight in SEA. State Department Memorandum of Conversation, 29 April I96I 62 XI. Secretary Rusk decides at this meeting at the State Depart- ment that "We should not place combat forces in SVH at this time." Colonel Robert M. Levy Memorandum for Record, 5 May 196l .. 67 1 ; ii ■ TOP SECRET - Sensitive \ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page 12, Final Draft of the Task Force Report recommends sending U.S. Battle Groups and an Engineer Battalion for train- ing purposes; the assignment of coastal patrol missions to CDICFACFLT; and the air surveillance and close-support role to CIKCPACAF. It also recommends the Vice-Presi- dential trip, a letter to Diem from Kennedy, increased MAP and other assistance, and a general U.S. commitment to support of Diem. Final Draft Task Force Report ,! A Program of Action," 6 May 1961 6$ r * 13. OSD requests the JCS to review and study the military advisability of possible commitment of U.S. forces to SVN. Deputy Secretary of Defense Memorandum for Chairman, JCS, 8 May 196I. 131 1^* President Kennedy provides Vice President Johnson with a personal letter to present to President Diem, Kennedy sug- gests that, in addition to actions in the Counter-Insur- , gency Plan, the U.S. is prepared to: (l) augment the personnel of MAAG, (2) expand MAAG's duties, (3} provide MAP support for the Civil Guard, and (k) provide support for the Vietnamese Junk Force. President Kennedy letter to President Diem, 8 May 1961 132 15. The President makes the following decisions: (l) the U.S. objective is to prevent communist domination of SVN and to create in that country a viable and increasingly democratic society, (2) the President directs full examination of the size and composition of forces which would be desirable in the case of a possible commitment of U.S. forces to Viet- nam, (3) finally, the President approves continuation of the special Task Force on Vietnam. The decisions of this NSAM are based on the report "A Program of Action to Pre- vent Communist Domination of SVN." NSAM 52, 11 May 1961. . . 136 l6 • President Diem asserts that the recent developments in Laos emphasize the grave Vietnamese concern for the security of their country with its long and vulnerable frontiers. President Diem states that "as a small nation we cannot hope to meet all of our defense needs alone..." and expresses confidence that the Vietnamese needs will be given consider- ation in Washington. President Diem letter to President Kennedy, 15 May 196I. 155 17. Lansdale summarizes information on the possible deployment * of U.S. combat forces in VN. He refers to a conversation between Diem and Vice President Johnson on the subject. / iii TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . 7 i TOP SECRET - Sensitive 21 21. Lansdale relates a conversation between Vice President Tho and Colonel Black, In discussing the Staley Mission, Tho concedes that it is impossible for the U.S. to provide .SVH with piastres. The GVN feels an increase in piastre return per dollar would cause inflation and, in turn, an inevitable demand for wage increases, Tho further concedes that the basic problem in 'TO is more political than economic. Tho's impression of the current situation in SWT is more pessimistic Page % "Much of the thinking has been on stationing U.S. combat forces in the high plateau,.. however, General Williams has written a brief memorandum to me recommending such U.S. forces to be stationed on the coast..." Lansdale Memorandum for Deputy Secretary Gilpatric, 18 May 1961..... 157 18. The Vice President reports on his mission to SEA. Johnson feels, on the basis of his visit, that the situation in Laos has created doubt and concern about U.S. intentions through- out all of SEA. "No amount of success at Geneva can, of itself, erase this." It is Johnson's impression that his mission arrested the decline of confidence in the U.S. "We didn't buy time — we were given it. If these men I saw ■ at your request were bankers, I would know -- without bothering to ask — that there would be no further exten- sions of my note." The fundamental decision required of the U.S. is whether we are to attempt a major effort in support of the forces of freedom in the area or "throw in the towel." Johnson recommends "we proceed with a clear- cut and strong program of action." Vice President Johnson jcq Memorandum to President Kennedy, 23 May 1961. 19. President Diem sends the U.S. a study on Vietnamese needs to meet the insurgency situation in the South. Diem sug- gests that, in light of the current situation, an addi- tional 100 y 000 men above the new force level of 170,000 will be required to counter the threat of communist domi- nation. Diem recommends a considerable expansion of the U.S. Military Advisory Group in SVH as an essential require- ment, and, finally, Diem expresses his mistrust of Sihanouk's communist sympathies and antagonism of SVH. President Diem letter to President Kennedy, ^ June 1961. . . . x6j 20. President Kennedy requests that the Secretary of Defense estimate requirements and make recommendations with respect to the anticipated future U.S. needs in the field of un- conventional warfare and paramilitary operations. NSAM 5^, !8 June 1961 xjh iv TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page than that of the Americans, Lansdale Memorandum for Deputy Secretary Gilpatrie, 12 July 1961 ••••••#••« 175 22. Mr. William P. Bundy forwards the joint action program pro- posed by the GVN-US. Special Financial Group to the Assistant Secretary of Defense. The report prepared by Dr. Eugene Staley, Chairman of the Group, has been submit- ted to President Ngo Diem and President John P. Kennedy, and includes the fiscal and economic implications of in- creasing the Vietnamese armed forces to 200,000 strength. The military portions, in addition to the requirements already planned, would require approximately $42 million, during the 18 -month period, July 6l-Deeemhcr 62. Bundy Memorandum to Gilpatrie, 25 July 1961, (Stuley Report attached) . , , a ^TT 23. General Lionel C. McGarr, Chief, MAAG-VieUam, reviews the military situation and offers recommendations for continued improvement of the situation in StfN to President Diem. Among the recommendations made by McGarr are : ( 1) that a national internal security council be established to prepare and execute the Vietnamese National Counter Insurgency Plan; (2) that effective border and coastal surveillance capa- bilities be initiated; (3) that U.S. advinurs be more effectively utilized by accompanying ARVN units on combat operations; and (k) finally, that the reorganization of the military command structure and establishment of a single chain of command be implemented as recommended in the Counter Insurgency Plan, Aide -Memo ire for President Diem • received Secretary of Defense, 2 August l[)Cl 227 2*w The JCS do not believe that an alternate force of 270 000 would be required to enable the RVHAF to conduct counter- * insurgency operations and, concurrently, he prepared to h meet overt aggression. They recommend that the strategic I force objectives for VN remain at the 9 division level (200,000) subject to further assessment. JCS Memorandum for ' Secretary of Defense, JCSM 5l8-6l, 3 Augur, t 1961 ' 39 25. The President approves the Staley recommendations and decides that the U.S. will provide equipment and training assistance for an increased RVHAF from 170,000 to 200,000. It is hoped that President Diem will get the maximum mileage in terms of internal political support from this new commitment, and that he will involve more elements of the non -communist political opposition in the civic action program. NSAM 65 11 August 1961. 0m , ; ' 2 ln • TOP SECRET - Sensitive Y Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page 26. The situation in Worth and South VN is analyzed and the scope of the communist threat to SVH is estimated for the following year. The analysis concludes that the DRV is in thorough political control in Forth VN and "when Ho is no longer active, there will probably be a struggle for power between the Moscow-oriented and the Peking-oriented elements of the Party." Dissatisfaction continues in South VN with DiemVs leadership. The Army continues to be a major factor in future political devel- opments in the South. The outlook is for a prolonged and difficult struggle between the VC insurgents and the GVN. HIE ll*. 3/53-61, 15 August 1961 . . ♦ . . 2^5 27. The President approves the following actions: (l) inten- sification of diplomatic efforts to achieve Souvanna's agreement to the Paris proposals; (2) authorization to undertake conversations with SEATO allies on an enlarge- ment of the concept of SEATO Plan 5; and (3) an increase in U.S. advisors in Laos. NSAM 80, 29 August 1961 - 2^7 28. The JCS sends the. Secretary of Defense a draft memorandum for the President on military intervention in Laos. The JCS suggests that if the President decides that U.S. forces should be employed in Laos, that SEATO Plan 5 Is "the proper basic vehicle for the contemplated action. The political objective of the intervention is to confront the Sino -Soviet Bloc with a military force of Asian and West- ern powers capable of stopping the communist advance. JCS Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, JCSM 66l-6l, 20 Septem- ber, 1961 . . 2^9 29. The Bureau of Intelligence and Research assesses the crisis in South VN and analyzes the short term prospects. The , study recognizes that communist progress toward its objec- j tive of overthrowing President Diem has been substantial. Since i960, more than 6,500 civilians, officers, and military personnel have been killed or kidnapped. Recent | U.S. support has raised Diem's political stature, but there has been no conclusive reversal of deteriorating trends. The security situation remains unimproved. However, the Government's comprehensive CIP, supported by U.S. aid, is beginning to show favorable results. Over the next year, developments in Laos may have more influence on VN than any improvement in the Diem Government. Department of State Research Memorandum KFE-1, 29 September 1961. 258 30. It is estimated that present armed, full-time VG strength is about .16, 000, an increase of 12,000 since April of i960, vi TOP SECRET - Sensitive /o Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page and of ^,000 in the past three months. While only 10-20$ / of this strength consists of cadres infiltrated from North VN, the remaining 80-90$ includes remnants of the approxi- mately 10,000 stay -behind personnel who vent underground during the 19.5^- "1955 regroupment and evacuation of Viet- namese communist army units following the Indo -China War, Though some weapons and equipment have been infiltrated into South VN, there has been no positive identification of Communist Bloc -manufactured military equipment in South VN. SNIE 53-2-61, 5 October 1961 291 31. The JCS feel the time is now past when actions short of in- tervention by outside forces can reverse the rapidly worsening situation in Southeast Asia. They consider the execution of SEAT0 Plan % or a suitable variation thereof, ■ to be the military minimum commensurate with the situation. JCS Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, JCSM 704-6l, 5 October 1961 295 32. It is the opinion of the JCS that the use of SEAT0 forces at the greatest possible number of entry points along the whole South VN border, i.e., over several hundred miles, is not feasible. Further, the alternative of using SEAT0 forces to cover solely the 17th parallel is militarily un- sound. "What is needed is not the spreading out of our forces throughout SEA, but rather a consolidated effort in Laos where a firm stand can be taken..." A limited interim course of action is provided herewith in the event SEAT0 Plan 5 i g considered politically unacceptable. JCS Memo- randum for Secretary of Defense, JCSM 716-61, 9 October 1961 297 33* "For what one man's feel is worth, mine -- based on very close touch with Indo -China in the 195^ va ^ and civil war afterwards until Diem took hold — is that it is really now or never if we are to arrest the gains being made by the Vietcong." Bundy suggests that an early, hard-hitting operation has a 70$ chance of success. "The 30$ is that we would wind up like the French in 195^; white men can't win this kind of fight. On a 70-30 basis, I would, myself, ■ favor going in." Bundy memorandum for Secretary McNamara, 10 October 1961. . . 312 ■ 3^# It is estimated that the Communist Bloc would not commit North Vietnamese or Chinese Communist forces to a large- scale military attack against South VM or Laos in response . to an assumed SEAT0 action to patrol the GVN coast / vii • ' TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 M i r TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page and secure the border involving about 25,000 men. Neutral- ist governments in SEA would be most concerned at the increased tension and danger of general hostilities. Nationalist China would be elated with the SEATO action. SNIE 10-3-6, 10 October 1961. . 313 35. At a meeting with President Kennedy, the following actions were agreed upon: (l) the Defense Department is authorized to send the Air Force Jungle Jim Squadron to VN; (2) Gen- eral Maxwell Taylor will leave for SVN on a Presidential mission; and (3) the State Department will pursue specific political actions, i.e., protest to the ICC on North VH support of the VC; table a White Paper at the UN; and con- sult with our SEATO allies regarding support in VN. Gil- patric Memorandum for Record, 11 October 1961. . . . 322 36. "With respect to training the Vietnamese Army for the 'wrong war', it seems clear that in recent months the insurgency in South Vietnam has developed far beyond the capacity of police control. All of the Vietnamese Army successes this past summer have met Viet Cong opposition in organized battalion strength. . .This change in the situation has not been fully understood by many U,S. officials. In this regard, there is some concern that the Thompson Mission may try to sell the Malayan concept of police control without making a suffi- ciently careful evaluation of conditions in South Vietnam. fr JCS Memorandum for General Taylor, CM-390-61, 12 October 1961 . 32^ 37* The President requests that General Taylor proceed to Saigon to appraise the situation in South Vietnam and to report his views on the courses of action which the U.S. might take to avoid further deterioration in the situation and eventually to eliminate the threat to the independence of South Vietnam. President Kennedy letter to General Taylor, 13 October 1961 32? 38. The President directs the following actions be taken: (l) make preparations for the publication of the White Paper on North Vietnamese aggression; (2) develop plans for presen- . tation of the VN case in the UN; (3) introduce the Jungle Jim Squadron into SVN for the purpose of training Vietnamese forces . He indicates that General Taylor should undertake a mission to Saigon. NSAM itik, 13 October I961 . . . , 328 39. It is the conclusion of the BoD General Counselthat the pro- posed introduction of U.S. combat and logistic forces into VN would constitute violations of Articles 16 and 17 of the viii" TOP SECRET - Sensitive a Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page Geneva Agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities in VN of July 20, 195^ Introduction of U.S. troops even for pur- poses of flood control would still constitute a violation of the Geneva Accords by the Government of VN. If a deci- sion is made to send U.S. troops into W, the U.S. should justify it on the ground of collective self-defense. "Nothing in the Geneva Accords should be read as abridging the inherent right of Vietnam and the United States to take actions in collective self-defense." DoD General Counsel Memorandum for Mr. Hadyn Williams, 26 October 1961.. 3^9 k0» General Taylor summarizes the fundamental conclusions of his group and his personal recommendations, Taylor con- cludes there is a double crisis in confidence: doubt that the U.S. is determined to save SEA, and doubt that \ Diem's methods can defeat the Communist purposes and methods. Taylor recommends that the U.S. Government join with the GVH in a massive joint effort as part of a total mobilization of GVN resources to cope with both the VC and the ravages of the flood* Specifically, the U.S. Govern- ment will provide individual administrators, conduct a joint- survey of conditions in the provinces, assist the GVN in effecting surveillance and control over the coastal waters, and finally, offer to introduce into South VN a military Task Force to operate under U.S. military control. General Taylor telegram (cite EAGI00005) for President Kennedy, 1 November 1961 331 41. Taylor presents his reasons for recommending the introduc- tion of a U.S. militaiy force into South Vietnam. "I have reached the conclusion that this is an essential action if we are to reverse the present downward trend of events... * * there can be no action so convincing of U.S. seriousness of purpose and hence so reassuring to the people and govern - . ment of SVN and to our other friends and allies in SEA as the introduction of U.S. forces into SVN." Taylor suggests that the strategic reserve of U.S. forces is seriously weak and that U.S. prestige would be more heavily engaged in SVN by this action. However, the size of the U.S. force introduced need not be great to provide the military pres- ence necessary to produce the desired effect. General Taylor telegram (cite BAGI00O06) for President Kennedy, 1 November 1961 - 337 42. The JCS and Secretary McNamara do not believe major units of U.S. forces should be introduced in SVN unless the U.S. is willing to commit itself to the clear objective of pre- venting the fall of SVN to communism and to support this ; ix TOP SECRET - Sensitive 13 Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page commitment by military action and preparation for pos- sible later action. They recommend that the U.S commit itself to this objective and support the recommendations of General Taylor toward its fulfillment. Secretary of Defense Memorandum for the President, 8 November 1961... 43. The head of the British Advisory Mission submits to Diem his plan for clearing the VC from the Delta. The central idea is the creation of a network of "strategic hamlets" akin to those employed successfully hy Thompson in defeating the communist guerillas in Malaya. R.G.K. Thompson letter to Diem, 11 November 1961 . kh m Reversing the November 8 Defense recommendation for a com- mitment of substantial U.S. ground forces to South Vietnam this November 11 Rusk-McNamara memorandum to the President (perhaps prepared at Kennedy *s specific direction) escalates the rhetoric regarding U.S. interest in a free South Viet- nam, but restricts the military recommendation: (a) employ only support forces now; (b) defer any decision to send "larger organized units with actual or potential direct mil- itary missions," Whether Kennedy fully accepted the high- blown statements of U.S. interest and commitment to the GVN is not known. State/Defense Memorandum to the President, 11 November I96I 45. The Joint Staff submits to the Chairman, JCS, briefs of the military actions contained in the draft National Security Action Memorandum resulting from the Taylor Mission Report. The military actions indexed pertain to the use of signifi- cant and/or substantial U.S. forces, provision of increased airlift, provision of additional equipment and U.S. per- sonnel, provision of training and equipment for the Civil Guard and SDC, and finally, overhaul of the GVN militaiy establishment and command structure. In connection with the draft memorandum, the Joint Staff considers it militarily desirable to pre -position forces and equipment and is cur- rently considering augmentation of U.S. Army Forces Pacific, with one infantry division plus appropriate logistic and combat support units. Joint Staff Memorandum for the Chair- man of the JCS, lit November 1961 k6 m Rusk instructs Ambassador Nolting to seek an immediate ap- pointment with President Diem to inform him that President Kennedy has decided that the Government of the U.S. is pre- pared to join the Government of VN in a sharply increased joint effort to avoid further deterioration in the situation of SVN. The joint effort requires certain undertakings by 3^3 3^5 359 * 368 TOP SECRET - Sensitive if vr. 48. Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page both governments. On its part, the U.S. would immediately support the GVN with increased airlift, additional equip- ment^ U.S. personnel, expedited training and equipping of the Civil Guard and increased economic aid. The GVN, how- ever, would have to initiate the following actions: (l) begin prompt legislative and administrative action to put the nation on a wartime footing to mobilise its resources; (2) give governmental wartime agencies adequate authority to perform their functions effectively; and (3) overhaul the military establishment and command structure to create an effective military organization. "President Kennedy con- templates aft immediate strong affirmative reply to satis- factory letter along indicated lines from President Diem, which will simultaneously be made public." Rusk NIACT 6l9 to Saigon, 15 November 1961. «...**........,... ...*.*.. After three days of talks in Saigon, Ambassador Galbraith feels there is scarcely "the slightest practical chance that the administrative and political reforms being pressed upon Diem will result in real change." Gailbraith sees a comparatively well equipped army of a quarter million men facing 15 to 18,000 lightly armed men. "...there is no solution that does not involve a change of government... to say there is no alternative (to Diem) is nonsense." Ambassador Gailbraith Memorandum for the President, 20 November 1961. ........# "The key and inescapable point then is the ineffectually (abetted debatably by the unpopularity) of the Diem Govern- ment. This is the strategic factor. Nor can anyone accept the statement of those who have been either too long or too little in Asia that it is the inevitable posture of the Asian mandarin. For one tiling, it isn't true, but were it so, the only possible conclusion would be that there is no future for mandarins. The communists don't favor them." Gailbraith feels that it is politically naive to expect that Diem will reform either administratively or politically in any effective way. "However, having started on this hopeless game, we have no alternative but to play it out for a minimum time... since there is no chance of success we must do two things to protect our situation. One is to make clear that our commitment is to results and not to promises. . .and we can press hardest in the area of Army reform where *the needed changes are most specific and most urgent." It follows from Gailbraith' s reasoning that the only solution must be to drop Diem, and we should not be alarmed by the Army as an alternative. Gailbraith Hew Delhi 99^-1 for President Kennedy, 21 Novem- ber 1961. , . 400 hOb hlO xx TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 IS TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page lj-9* The U.S. is prepared to join the VN Government in a sharply- increased joint effort to avoid a further deterioration in the situation in SVN. This joint effort is contingent upon initiation of certain actions on the part of the GVN and consists of increased economic and military support by the U.S., based on recommendations of the Taylor Report, . NSAM ill, 22 November I961 1*19 50. Bundy comments on the command arrangements for VN and recom- mends that General McGarr be elevated to the new position or that a replacement be found. He also recommends sending Lansdale back as Diem has requested. Bundy Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense, 25 November 1961. . 1*22 51. General Taylor relates a list of questions proposed by President Kennedy to be used at a meeting of his key ad- visors* Among the questions are: (l) what is the situa- tion with regard to Diem as reported by Ambassador Nolting; (2) can we delay longer in obtaining an answer from Diem; (3) what are the views of the JCS on the military organi- sation required to support the new program; (k) what is our plan for flood relief; (5) who should the President regard as personally responsible for the effectiveness of the Washington eud of this operation? General Taylor Memo- randum for Secretary McNamara, 27 November 1961. ........... 423 52. The President approves U.S. participation in a selective and carefully controlled Joint program of defoliant operations in VN starting with the clearance of key routes and proceed- ing thereafter to food denial. NSAM 115, 30 November 1961 ; 425 53. McNarnara confirms to Rusk the command arrangements under which the senior U.S. military commander in Vietnam will have the title "Commander, U.S. Military Assistance Forces - Vietnam 1 ' and will have equivalent rank to the Ambassador, reporting through CINCPAC to the JCS. Secretary of Defense Memorandum for the Secretary of State, l8 December 1961,,,.. k26 54. Diem is apprehensive about giving control authority to Big Minh as &ilitary field commander because of his fear of a coup. While U.S. policy is to support Diem and he has been so informed by the President, we must find a way to reassure him about a coup, "It is the basis for his real reluctance to do what the Americans want him to do and this basic point needs resolving. ..what realistic assurances • can we give Diem that the action he fears won't take place?" Lansdale Memorandum for the CJCS, 2J December 1961 * 1|.27 • xii TOP SECRET - Sensitive fe 55. 56. 57. 58. Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive 1962 The Chairman of the JCS summarizes the current situation in W, methods of VC operations, routes of infiltration and supply, relative strengths, and discusses U.S. mili- tary units in place or enroute to VN. "The objectives of the Diem Government in SVN include not only survival against the communists, but also improvement of the national economy, enhancement of SVN's position among Southeast Asian nations, creations of an effective armed force, and preservation of a pro-Western orientation. "Policies directed toward the achievement of these ob- jectives suffer from the concentration* of power in the hands of the President, Ngo Dinh Diem, and a small clique headed by his extremely influential and power- ful brother, Ngo Dinh Nhu." Chairman JCS Talking Paper for Briefing President Kennedy, 9 January 1962 •* The JCS agree that the basic issue of Diem's apprehen- sion about a coup needs to be resolved* fr I don't be- lieve there is any finite answer to the question you pose as to how to convince Diem he must delegate authority to subordinates he doesn't fully trust." JCS Memorandum for General Lansdale, CM-491-62, 18 January 19 62 . ....-•.•'.«. The President establishes a Special Group (Counter Insur- gency), the functions of which are as follows: (l) to insure proper recognition throughout the U.S. Government that subversive insurgency ("wars of liberation") is a major form of politico -military conflict equal in impor- tance to conventional warfare; (2) to insure that such recognition is reflected in the organization, training, equipment and doctrine of the U.S, armed forces and other U.S. agencies; (3) to continually review the adequacy of U.S. resources to deal with insurgency; and (4) to insure the development of adequate programs aimed at preventing or defeating insurgency. HSAM 124, l8 January 1962 ....,., State Department agrees that an increase in the Vietnamese armed forces to the 200,000 man level should be supported provided the following factors are considered: (l) that U.S. military advisors and the Vietnamese authorities continue to set valid tactical and strategic plans; (2) the rate of increase should consider the ability of the Army to absorb and train the additional men and the manpower resources of SKI; (3) that the armed forces should level off at 200,000 and further efforts should be devoted to 1*28 440 442 xiii TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 n TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page strengthening the Civil Guard and Self -Defense Corps; and (4) that our training programs for ARYN be based on the concept that the Vietnamese Army will start winning when it has the confidence of the Vietnamese populace, U. Alexis Johnson letter to Mr. Gilpatric, 26 January 1962. ......... . 445 59. Secretary McNamara forwards a JCS Memorandum to the Presi- dent with the comment, 1f I am not prepared to endorse the views of the Chiefs until we have had more experience with our present program in SVN." The JCS Memorandum recommends that if, with DIem f s full cooperation and the effective employment of SVH armed forces, the VC is not brought under control, then a decision should be made* to deploy suitable U.S. military combat forces to SVN sufficient to achieve desired objectives. Secretary of Defense Memorandum for the President, 27 January 1962 (jCSM-33-62, 13 January I962, attached) • . 447 60 • The President requests that AID review carefully its role in the support of local police forces for internal security and counter -insurgency purposes, and recommend to him through the Special Group (Counter Insurgency) what new or renewed emphases are desirable, NSAM 132, 19 February 1962... 455 61. The President approves training objectives for personnel who may have a role to play in counter insurgency programs as well as in the entire range of problems involved in the modernization of developing countries. The training objec- tives include the study of: the historical background of counter insurgency, departmental tactics and techniques to counter subversive insurgency, instruction in counter insurgency program planning, specialized preparations for service in underdeveloped areas . Training of foreign nationals will also be included in the program. The Presi- dent desires that current counter insurgency training be examined to ascertain if it meets the above training objec- tives. NSAM 131, 13 March 1962 , „ , # 457 62. The President forwards a memorandum on the subject of W from Ambassador Galbraith and requests Department cf Defense com- ments. The Gailbraith Memorandum (4 April 62) asserts that the U.S. is backing a weal: and ineffectual government In SVN and that ''there Is a consequent danger that we shall replace the French as the colonial force in the area and bleed as the French did." Gailbraith urges that U.S. policy keep open the door for political solution, attempt to involve other countries and world opinion in a settlement, and reduce our commitment tc the present leadership of GVU. In * xiv TOP SECRET - Sensitive I e. 63. 6h. 65. 66 * 67. Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive addition to recommended specific actions, Gailbraith sug- gests the U.S. should resist all steps to commit American troops to combat action and dissociate itself from pro- grams which are directed at the villagers, such as the re- settlement programs* "White House Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, 7 April I962 (Galbraith Memorandum attached).,. The JCS comment on Ambassador Galbraith 1 s Memorandum to President Kennedy, The JCS cite the Kennedy letter of 1^ December 1961 to President Diem as a public affirmation of the intention of the U.S. Government to support Presi- dent Diem to whatever extent necessary to eliminate the VC threat In sum, it is the JCS opinion that the present U.S. policy toward SVR as announced by the President "be pursued vigorously to a successful conclusion." JCS Memo- randum for the Secretary of Defense, JCSM 282-62, 13 April 1962..., »OO«OOO0G«« ooq.co.o • ■«.«*ooo ISA discusses the circumstances surrounding the Defense reply to Galbraith 1 s Memorandum and notes the absence of formal staffing by the State Department, In- a penciled note "Secre- tary of Defense has talked to Ambassador Galbraith and feels no reply needed. Mr. Forrestal informed this date that none would be sent." ISA Memorandum to Secretary of Defense, Ik April 1962 0**««*«t«»o*.e#0e*0.»o.«**.**6t>6# • * * * • o e The President requests contingency planning in the event of a breakdown of the cease-fire in Laos for action in two major areas: (l) the holding by Thai forces with U.S. back- up of that portion of northern Laos west of the Mekong River; and (2) the holding and recapture of the panhandle of Laos from Thakhek to the southern frontier with Thai, Vietnamese or U.S. forces. Kennedy indicates that he contemplates keep- ing U.S. forces in Thailand during the period of the nego- tiations by the three Princes and the early days of the government of national union. KSAM 157, 29 May 1962 ... In an evaluation of the first three months of systematic counter -insurgency, Hilsman of State's IHR reports some prog- ress and reason for modest optimism although acknowledging the great amount yet to be done. State Department IHR Research Memorandum RKE-27, 18 June 1962 The President approves assignments of responsibilities in the development of U.S. and indigenous police, par amilitary and military resources to various agences as recommended by the Special Group on Counter Insurgency. Deficiencies revealed in the study pursuant to NSAM 56 include; country Page kGO k&\ kQS h6j +69 XV TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 19 I TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page internal defense plans, improvement of personnel programs of agencies concerned with unconventional warfare, orienta- tion of personnel, deployment of counter insurgency person- nel, support of covert paramilitary operations, increased use of third-country personnel, exploitation of minorities, * improvement of indigenous intelligence organizations, and research and development for counter insurgency . NSAM l62, 19 June 1962 Wl 68. The President approves a national counter insurgency doctrine for the use of U.S. departments and. agencies concerned with the internal defense of overseas areas threatened by sub- versive insurgency. NSAM l82, 2k August I962 ^85 69* In a year-end summary of the Vietnamese situation and prog- nosis, Hilsman (State HIE) concludes that at best the rate of deterioration has been decreased. GVN control of the countryside, the Strategic Hamlet Program notwithstanding, has increased only slightly. State Department IMR Research Memorandum RFE-59, 3 December 1961 • . . k8j . 1963 70. A National Intelligence Estimate states that "Communist progress has been blunted and that the situation is im- proving. Strengthened South Vietnamese capabilities and effectiveness, and particularly U.S. involvement, are causing the Viet Cong increased difficulty, although there are as yet no persuasive indications that the Communists have been grievously hurt." The VC will continue to wage a war of attrition and there is no threat of overt attack from the Worth. On the basis of the last year's progress the VC can be contained but it is impossible "to project the future course of the war with any confidence. Decisive campaigns have yet to be fought and no quick and easy end to the war is in sight." FIE 53-63, "Prospects in South Vietnam," 17 April 1963 ...... 522 71. The President approves and directs certain actions outlined in the Department of State Memorandum of 17 June I963, rel- ative to Laos planning. The President wishes to obtain suggestions for actions in Laos in light of the deteriora- ting situation and from the British and the French before initiating any action under the Memorandum. Kennedy asks about additional U.S. actions to be taken in Laos before* any action directed against NVN. NSAM 2k$, 25 June I963... " 525 ■ 72. The President is briefed on developments in Indonesia, Laos and W. Specifically, onSVU, discussions cover the possibility - xvi ' ■ TOP SECRET - Sensitive ) - ■ — — — % Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive ,s 75. U.S. policy with respect to a coup is defined in more detail for Lodge and Harkins as a result of an NSC meeting with the President. "The USG will support a coup which has good chance of succeeding but plans no direct involvement of U.S. armed forces. Harkins should state (to the generals) that he is prepared to establish liaison with the coup planners and to review plans, but will not engage directly in joint coup plan- ning." Lodge is authorized to suspend aid if he thinks it will enhance the chances of a successful coup. State Depart- ment Message 272, State to Lodge and Harkins, 29 August 1963 76. Rusk raises with Lodge the possibility of a last approach to Diem about removing Mhu before going ahead with the coup. He notes that General Harkins favors such an attempt. Rusk of getting rid of the Nhus (the combined judgment wa* that it would not be possible), pressure on Diem to take political actions, possible results of a coup, and the replacement of Ambassador Nolting with Ambassador Lodge, Department of State Memorandum of Conversation, h July 1963 • 526 73* A Special National Intelligence Estimate evaluates the political crisis in South Vietnam arising from the Buddhist protest. It concludes that if Diem does not seek to con- ciliate the Buddhists new disorders are likely and there will be better than even chances of coup or assassination attempts. U.S-GW relations have deteriorated as a func- tion of Diem's distrust of U.S. motives in the Buddhist affair and he may seek to reduce the U.S. presence in Viet- nam. The Communists have thus far not exploited the Buddhist crisis and they would not necessarily profit from a non -Communist overthrow. A successor regime with con- . tinued U.S. support would have good chances of effectively pursuing the war* SHIE 53-2-63, "The Situation in South Vietnam, " 10 July I963 * 529 74. In a subsequently controversial cable, State informs Lodge that if Diem is unwilling or unable to remove Hhu from the government, that the U.S. will have to prepare for alterna- tives. Lodge is authorized to inform the Vietnamese generals plotting a coup that if Hhu is not removed we will be pre- pared to discontinue economic and military aid, to accept a change of government and to offer support in any period of ! interim breakdown of the central government mechanism. State \ Department Message to Saigon 2*1-3, State to Lodge, 2^ August 1963 536 538 xvti TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NMD 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 7 TOP SECRET - Sensitive 77. 78. 79- 80. feels that if accompanied by the threat of a rpal sanction — i.e. j the withdrawal of U.S. support -- such an approach could be timed to coincide with the readiness of the generals to make their move and mighty therefore , offer some promise of getting Diem to act. State Department Message 279, State to Lodge, 29 August 19^3 • Vice President Johnson presides over a meeting at the State Department on the subject of SVT4, The generals 1 plot having aborted. Rusk asks what in the situation "lead us to think well of a coup." Further, Rusk feels that it is unrealistic now "to star t off by saying that Nhu has to go . " McNamara approves Rusk's remarks. Hilsman presents four basic factors bearing on the current situation: (l) the restive mood of the South Vietnamese population; (2) the effect on U.S. pro- grams elsewhere in Asia of the current GVN policy against the Buddhists; (3) the personality and policies of Nhu; and (h) U.S. and world opinion. Vice President has great reserva- tions about a coup because he sees no genuine alternative to Diem. General Krulak Memorandum for the Record, 31 August I963 ■ Lodge is instructed by the White House that since there is no longer any prospect of a coup, pressure must be applied to Diem to get him to adopt an extensive list of reforms. In particu- lar Lodge is authorized to hold up any aid program if he thinks such action will give him useful leverage in dealing with Diem. CAP Message 63516, White House to Lodge, 17 September 1963 • The President explains to Lodge his urgent need for the McNamara-Taylor assessment of the situation.,. The visit is not designed to be a reconciliation with Diem, rather he expects McNamara will speak frankly to him about the military consequences of the political crisis. State Department Message h31, The President to Lodge, l8 September 1963 Lodge's reply to the White House CAP Message 63516 indicates agreement that a coup is no longer in the offing, but opposes both an approach to Diem on reforms or the use of an aid suspension as a lever. He regards both as likely to be un- productive or worse. Embassy Saigon Message 5^> Lodge to State for President Only, 19 September 1963 9 , 539 5^0 51*5 5^8 5^9 81. President Kennedy outlines his reasons for sending McNamara and Taylor to VII: "I am asking you to go because of my desire to have the best possible on-the-spot appraisal of XV111 TOP SECRET - Sensitive — 1 - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND PKjjject Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 20 1 I » TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page the military and paramilitary effort to defeat the VC." While the results from programs developed after Taylor's Mission in 19&L were heartening , the serious events in the South since May 19&3 have prompted the President to ask McNarcara to make a fresh, first-hand appraisal of the situa- tion, "In my judgement the question of the progress of the contest in SVH is of the first importance ... " President Kennedy Memorandum for Secretary of Defense, 21 September 1963 551 82, Pending McNamara's visit and the subsequent review of policy, Lodge is given the following interim guidance: "(l) The United States intends to continue its efforts to assist the Vietnamese people in their struggle against the Viet Cong* (2) Recent events have put in question the possibility of success in these efforts unless there can be important im- provements in the government of South Vietnam* (3) It is the policy of the United States to bring about such improve- ment." State Department Message ^58, Eyes Only for Lodge from Ball, 22 September 1963 553 83, The Mcilamara-Taylor Mission Report concludes that the mili- tary campaign has made great progress, and, while the political crisis in Saigon is serious, "there is no solid ' evidence of the possibility of a successful coup* . . " The Report recommends against promoting a coup and, although it is not clear that U.S. pressure will move Diem to the modera- tions and reforms we desire, nevertheless, as the only course of action with any prospect of producing results, the report \ recommends the application of selective economic sanctions, including a suspension of funds for the commodity import program. The Mission further recommends a shift of military emphasis to the Delta and a consolidation of the Strategic j Hamlet Program. In addition, it is recommended that a training program be established for RVNAF such that the bulk of U.S. personnel may be withdrawn by the end of 19&5. In \ conjunction with this program, the U.S. should announce plans 1 to withdraw 1, 000 U.S. military personnel by the end of I963.. 55^ 84. Lodge is advised that as a result of the policy review just completed, the "President today approved recommendation that no initiative should now be taken to give any active covert encouragement to a coup." Efforts to build and maintain con- tacts with "alternative leadership" is authorised, however. CAP Message 63560, to Lodge via CAS channel, 5 October 1963 85. Contact has been renewed by the generals with a CAS agent who has been apprised of the reactivation of plotting. In. the 57^ xix TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page meeting, General Minh states that he must know the U.S. position on a coup* He stresses that a coup is urgently needed to prevent the loss of the war to the VC. The U.S. ! contact is noncommital. CAS Saigon Message 1^5 j Lodge to State, 5 October I963 575 86. Washington reaffirms Lodge's guidance that he is not to promote a coup. Neither, however, is he to thwart one. He should try to "obtain as much information as possible from the plotters about their plans on which to base an -American judgement about their likelihood of success. CIA Message Jk228, 6 October 1963 4 577 87. The President approves the detailed military recommendations ; contained in the McNamara-Taylor Report, but directs that no ' announcement of the implementation of the l,000~man with- drawal plan be made. WSAM 263, 11 October 1963 578 ■ 88. A Department of State Research Memorandum contends that the statistical indicators on the war in Vietnam reveal "that the military position of the Vietnam Government may have reverted to the point it had reached six months to a year ago." The analysis angers the JCS and Rusk subsequently apologizes to McNamara. Department of State, IMR Research Memorandum KFE-90, 22 October I963 579 89. With the coup plotting now far advanced and the U.S. clearly committed to the generals' attempt, Lodge seeks to calm Washington's anxieties about the lack of detailed informa- tion on the generals' plans. He is at pains to oppose any thought of thwarting the coup because he thinks the mili- tary will create a government with better potential for carrying on the war, and because it would constitute undue meddling in Vietnamese affairs. Embassy Saigon Message - . 196^, Lodge to McGeorge Bundy, 25 October I963 590 * 90. While thanking Lodge for his views, the White House indi- cates that short of thwarting a coup we should retain the prerogative of reviewing the plans and discouraging any attempt with poor prospects of success. CAP Message 63590, - McGeorge Bundy to Lodge, 25 October I963 592 91. The White House instructs Lodge to bring General Harkins completely up to date on the coup plotting, and asks that' " Harkins, Lodge and the CXA Station Chief provide a com- bined assessment of the prospects of the plotters. Indi- vidual comments are to be sent if desired. With these assessments, a decision can be made telling the generals: xx TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3?> NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I TOP SECRET - Sensitive (a) we vill maintain a hands -off policy, (b) we will posi lively encourage the coup, or (c) we vill discourage it. More detailed military plans should be sought from Minh. CAS Message 79109 > McGeorge Bundy to Lodge , 30 October 1963 Page 593 92. After complaining about Lodge's failure to keep him In- formed about the coup planning, General Harkins opposes the proposed coup against Diem, He does not see an alterna- tive leadership with Diem f s strength of character, espe- cially not among the generals. The war continues to go veil. MACV Message 2028, Harkins to Taylor, 30 October 595 1963 . - 93, General Harkins takes detailed exception to the interpreta- tions of a deteriorating war effort that Lodge has been transmitting throughout October, He offers an optimistic appraisal of the trend of the war and sees the political crisis as having only a marginal effect on troop morale and military effectiveness, MACV Message 2033, Harkins to Taylor, 30 October I963 . 597 $h. Lodge argues forcefully for the coup, "it Is theoretically possible for us to turn over the information which has been given to us in confidence to Diem and this would undoubtedly stop, the coup and would make traitors out of us. For practi- cal purposes, therefore, I would say that we have very little influence on what is essentially a Vietnamese affair." In the event the coup fails, he believes we should do what we can to help evacuate the generals' dependents. Lodge believes the generals are all taking enormous risks for the (/ sake of their country and their good faith is not to be questioned. "Heartily agree that a miscalculation could ; jeopardize position in Southeast Asia. We also run tremen- ! dous risks by doing nothing." General Harkins did not I concur in the cable. CAS Saigon Message 2063, 30 October 1963 • ■ feo 95- Taking note of the difference of opinion on the advisa- | bility of a coup between Lodge and Harkins, the White House : j specifically informs Lodge that he is to discourage the ; generals from any attempt that in his judgement has a poor prospect of success. Lodgd is given full authority for country team actions in the event of a coup; if he has left for Washington, Harkins will have charge. In the event of a coup, U.S. policy will be: (a) to reject ax/peals for direct intervention from either side; (b) if the* contest is indecisive, U,S. authorities may perform any actions agreed xxi TOP gSCRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3-3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 • Nil i TOP SECRET - Sensitive Page to by both sides; (c) in the event the coup fails^ asylum may be offered to anyone to whom ve have an obligation; but (d) once the coup has started, it is in our interests to see that it succeeds. CAS Washington Message 79^07, 30 October 1963, 66k xxii TOP SECRET - Sensitive Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3?> NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 n * TOP SECRSE 7T~ # ^ "** -*"\ , " / Talking Paper for the Chairman j JC3, for aectlns v;ith the' President of the United States 9 feauswy 19^2 * . * Subject: Current US Military Actions in South Vietnam (u) f /C v. * • *•.£' " B&ekeround - Today Go&sftnist; China end North Vietnam are suffering . --, * m , ■ *-*-. from the effects of failure cf their ©oirniunes to produce actuate amounts' of food to food thair peoples. Recently, lar^e quantitie of wheat were purchased by Hod China from Canada and Australia to overcome this failure* aouth cist Aaia^ primarily South vietaaat and Thailand., is a food surplus area in normal times. Because of this and the standard l^arxist-Lonlaist eoncspt of peripheral * . * aggression and pressure, the rain ecssiunlst threat in the Western \ " Facif ie appears to he directed at Southeast Asia. Of principle 4 ■• cozicern for the purpoco of this brief ins is the situation in i j South Vietnam, the U3 IIAtional ohjactivao there and the military actions that have bee-n implemented since October in support of oar objectives. .' »- -s V * I Stir" 3 . J . .» &J 1 *• f 2Z '- ' Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 - The current; situation In Soixtli Vietnam i> ■ ^*«^- 1 .- country into tv/o major gsogx*aphical areas * Xntersector V sritii t headquarters in the high plateau region north and west of Kontua* and the flasjbo sector in the south with headquarters northeast of Saigon. Each Ea$or area is sxibdivicled into interprovineial com- .Bands — four in Interseotor V and throe in !Tambo> with a special eons for Saigon. Each inter-provincial area is further organised j into provinces v;hich are further subdivided into districts* villages j and hamlets t * I " ' • *~ tl^fetio&s of VC Operation • -» 1^. 1 1 - M — ■ r ^ . J .J ■!■ * '.«*i» •* 5&e aooOO-tn^n Viet Cons Ktlitat*? eaf^Mishmettt is divided L : into ti?o operational groups— regular- and re^loasl-locsl fores:;. Regular feafcfcaliono sn3 e<^paniea, nisaberlns about 8,500 per- sosmel, constitute the offensive element or the "Mfeerafcion | Amy* and operate throughout their respective interprovineial • 4 * fc\ She Viet Cong have heavily infiltrated^ organized and nov; ef- \ * foctively control the colored areas on this chart* ■ ' : ; *- v To achieve their purposes the Viet Cong have divided the *r«"'^> lui Ot&u V Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 29 •• *n- sua €%> T» f\ t^ r» r.: : ' - -' -^/«J -_.- The 8,000 regional and local forces., vrhieh correspond functionally to the Self Defense Forces of SV3, arc essentially security troops recruited and organised on district levels fox* limited operations End to provide security for eoimnand heact- *«its A *- gra also used to pr-ovlcla seral-trainac! personnel as replacements 9m in regular battalions and as fillers far richly activated units. ■ Under regional unit control guerrilla platoons made up of day- + fcims taimsvs sabotage* terror! r,o> ftssa^alnsitdj kidnap j dlss^gslnata propaganda* a&d attoinpt to sub vor*fc their neighbors ♦ Availability of yecpons. appears to bs a continuing pro^lesa - for Viet Con^ forces j particularly iii regional units in which ■ less than half of the E3n are arsied. The prlnary source of arsas ■ for all VC forces app$S?s to be those c&pti&tod from South * • ,* Vietnamese security forces. Most officers and key iiC^s, as veil as political and DrQpagazida • specialists, ere forr.ier South vietn.ai.tise uho v;ent north trifch the Cci^nunists in 19p5.» or ;;ho have since "been recruited and sent to * » Ilorth Vietnam. These southerners are given special training c.^& £3?3 than Infiltrated feack into South Viet&asi tiireush lacs (ox 1 "by ■ • * » * Training of r^^ional trocoo and th£ activation of noir x»dgulcr ■battalions have been stepped up since the first of the year. In .. TO? ii'30 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 ». TOJ : ■ several ciajoa? Viet Cons training a-Kc&tSj eaia of uhich had barracks cpr-ce Tor noro than a battalion ^ £00 d&ssEBT ri;C3c3 .^ and tons of food. j.n COi^miiisfcrcontrolloct strea&j tho .Vlefc Cons have oj^dor-ed The • Viet Cons ^2?s coll^efciag r;oney frcn tho peasants arid plantation ovnisrs to finance the yaa? against the gcvovvrasntj and have in:- plesaentetl a rico tax to build up supplies for future epspat&atfsu Pitched battlas gps avoided v/aepevsr possible* unless they ore essential to a ^ivon pla»j oi* the Military advantages ar least 'four to one, Tho campaign to a~;sa?.>r;in2te all who try to All inQicatSons point to bh Viet Cons nialntal&ing tha current higk level of guerrilla action in the south* and in- creasing activity in tbs high plateau area in efforts to build the decided semipermanent bases* *- .y - ■ S431 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SI "?Ars ' » i - Routeo o£ Infiflfc£ti*ol. Personnel are asfiirpod to units within tns r i -*' : battalion cLccorcUns to their respective regions of origin in South Vie train. .. • * • Upon completion of training* Viet Cons volunteers re- enter South Vietnam by taking a circuitous route through territory "in neighboring laos controlled by Ccrrauniat Pathet ■ -x/S. *> lii addition to lend infiltration, come Viet Cong guorrillas and cadres are infiltrated by sea using junks and ar.all craft to land at various points on the lon^ South Vietnam coastline. It ---■• is cstinnted that no r.ore than £0;? of the total infiltrees us *?r* im XJi^XJC* Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ ■* «*-v The current Btttaagtb of the Viet Cons is 16,500 with the possible infiltration of 1,000 per "rionth. The increase in strength by infiltration is offset hy the estimated Vict Con; casualttos which avarase cvei* l^CCO a luonth according to South Vietnan official figures • A reeenfc refinement in intelligene-3 reporting indicates that the official estiasate of Viet Cons strength may he raised to about 20^000 in fcha near futttrs. 3?he current actual strength of the South Yietna-nose forces era as follows; Array - * tfavy • -i • Air Fores . Marines 163 , 696 - 5>31* 3,135 >v . - In addition paramilitary forces Guard and. 45, COO Self Doxcnzo Corps, total 65,000 in the Civil The regular Ar:sy forces are organizes and assigned to three corns aroao ulth raj or co:n::ancl fcoadouartors and units located as shotm on tho chart, ' * ' • * - Currant Xi-5 Military Actions The President on 22 Rovessfbar 1951 authorised the Ss * of State* to instruct the US AmosssMor to Yiotnafii to isiforra President Diem that the U3 Government was prepared to Join the * - v C7I; in a sharply increased effort to avoid a farther deterlcrs- » tisn of tho situation in SVII. On its part tho US would isa&adiatelv ■"^•T* -r>, *"^ 73 fi Oa - r r rt I? 3 ^ *i O V^ £ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 a# Provide increased airlift to the 6VH in the form, of * helicopters^ light aviation and transport aircraft* b. Provide required couip;nent and US pers&insl for aerial veocaxoalsostioOj- instruction In axv$ execution of air-around • i c Augaant fchs Vietnamese Havy operational ly with d:v^h J*** crarc* d. Provide o^peciit^d training and p^oipplng of the Civil m the rallitsi^-political intelligene© system. . . f. Provldo suoft Jao;t tti&gia of feoifeps&oej reorganisation j ang additional gt&rsonasl for US sdlltsrsr £ex-ses as are regulfed ^/V-* A 'A ■** *t** Btik <£ *^/) ^? *^ *"* '1 1 "1 J*!?* *■"' \7 ?* P! "^ "7 CJ V" 1 V* *■» iA ■ Discussion - As a result of the decision to accelerate US support or tha CfvII, the following US military units r,v»s in place 62* eni'outs as ohc:rn c.i th:ir$ chart: (pvei'lsy $o* l) . * a. tfv;o ksm$ Lijght Helicopter Companies are opera tins in support o.f the StflfAI? l?ron Tan Son Shut and Qui llhon. The third cosspawy is er.routo to Da iizx\z si til an ETA of 3.5 January and an operational readiness date of 1 F$tH*uS3?y * This Kill - provide one cosgjany of 20 K-Sl and tvro 11-13 in support of each of three 39HK? Corps arass* • • • b» Tns US Ar-ny has alerted the iSth Flxsci V/ing Aircraft ■ ■ Coiaoany equipped v/ith 16 UlA (Ott-:rr) nir craft to be readj* * • for deployment by 15 3araagcey« *. t* •* i ■ -* * f: *3 I 1 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 c tpr~% ~s ^> — ' ri T*"^ *■ * * f e Ths 3ftStt> US23 IVoop Barrier SgisaarorTwith 16 C-123 . aircraft has Tour aircraft at Clark end four operating front Tan Son ffiiufc« Efee res&inins ei(£it aircraft are in the Pacific Eaeafcre e.nrouto to Clark with an HS& of 10 January. S&is unit will rotate aircraft into SW front Clark to support; SHU** operations as rccaiiroa. . : ' • ■ • . *'._ ' ' d'« Four 1 HP-J01 aircraft and a smll photo processing * . : olemsnt operated by the UOiU? are i« placs at DejV Huang Air- CV*J '. e. She USA? mm£ JIvl unit at Sien Hon with ei£ht ^-23^ ■ Vietnamese Ais» Force in cedbafc air support tactics and - techniques* She Pacific Air Force iu deploying personnel said ceuipraont to SKll to establish a joint iSS/SW Saetical , A±^ Control Sydt€&i'(£A£3}» Tbio sysfc&ia Will par-ait positive control o? nil air* operations ancl rapid respOASo to requests for slr-grouae suppose* f ♦ T £ho 3rd Icadio Ksfioimaissaas^ Unit at Ean Son ilhut is T% r* * i* *5» f* 1 1 ^ % r ~ jTi y* t £> *'l r » *; "> r* £ fl < "1 1 fa 5 ? GIVfcl r" *? C* r ■ r* 1? ? o^« 1 Ti ^ 1 t- ' \ 1 1 "h P* A ^ * ■ board I>y 1^ ^a:-uary* . : »jn - ■ - ■ • ■ •w>-r ., . . i *^^ 36 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 I V > ^ ^ [WE gg Six C-123 spray equipped aircraft for support of de- foliant operations have received diplomatic clearance to enter SW. h, US Navy Mine Division 73 with a tender and five mine sweepers is operating from Tourane Harbor in conjunction with the Vietnamese Navy conducting maritime surveillance patrols south of the 17th parallel. i. Air surveillance flights 30 miles seaward from the SVN coast (l7th parallel) to 50 miles beyond the Paracel Islands are conducted every other day by Seventh Fleet patrol aircraft. In addition to deployment of organized US military units to SVN and increased personnel strength for the MAAG, accelerated a delivery of MAP equipment has already begun. Nine additional L-20 light observation aircraft are enroute to SVN for use by the Vietnamese Air Force. Also, 15 T-28C aircraft have been delivered to augment the Vietnamese air-ground support capability. These were provided on an interim, loan basis until 30 T-28B (NOMAD) with a greater ordnance delivery capability could complete modification and be delivered to SVN, early in March. Department of the Army is also providing an additional 12 H-3^ helicopters from active Army units to the USAF on a reimbursable basis for accelerated MAP delivery to the RVNAF ■ early in March, ... ^ a- i i U I 1 if 1 ^>M*V>ll»Ufl * U36 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 3t TUP. StUKtl ; 0n 1 November 1961 the personnel strength of the military Assistance ■ Advisory Group in Vietnam was 84l, present strength is 120^1 and pro— jected strength as of 30 June I962 is 239^* The total personnel strength of US units and elements , other than the MAAG, was lkh2 as of 2 January 1962 and projected strength as of 30 June 1962 is 3182. The total US personnel in South Vietnam is now 26U6 and projected strength as of 30 June 1962 is 5576, The MAAG is extending its advisory teams to battalion level within the RVNAF MA Military establishment and beginning to participate more directly in advising Vietnamese unit commanders in the planning and execution of military operations plans. Since delivery of MAP equipment has been accelerated and RVNAF military operations are increasing, the "MAAG training activities have been expanded. This training includes operations, planning, logistics, intelligence, communications and electronics as they apr>ly to each service within the RVNAF. They are also accelerating the training of the Vietnamese Civil Guard and Self- Defense Corps. Shown on the chart are the approved and funded construction projects in South Vietnam. These include: a. Improvement of the Pleiku Airfield. b. Improvements at Tan Son Nhut Airfield which include installations of: (1) Pierced steel planking parking apron. (2) POL hydrant system. (3) POL pipeline to Nha Be. (h) Ammunition storage facility (5) Concrete parking apron c. An aircraft control and warning site at Tan Son Nhut and one at Da Nana: ^37 r » ?■ 1 % f r • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 3? d. linpx'ovonsiit or tha Bien Ilea &i#£iel&« ■ ■ # ■ - Coiirair&Ieafcions and electronics imeroTensonts include the rollovjlns: a. An Saiprovsd intelligence co'^iuaicntiono nGt;:or3i* Ifefc I b* An Improved Gats %fay Station communications f?.c:tlit.Lo rif * *. 114. ^ **- -;i*' »>-!-— ~* <-> in SSfr&ata?c arc apvxrcvod for CspXo'gtsssit. to 371! as directed by £ho jFutesre Outlook » — T^i. ■ <»» ■». ! ■ . ,V%.-»i ,i J-fc-. Ths foraaast national objective toa^y of ths Diem govesn- asnt in South Viotn&a is survival &£p££3fc the incursions of Vietnam, Secondary, but nonetheless extremely important ob- , ' Jeotive-s include: (x) Sjaproveaent of the national economy with esnphasis on agrarian r-e:Cor;a; (s) enhancement of South Vietnam? 3 economic, cultural, and prestige position aaong Southeast Asian » ■ nations; (3) Che creation of an ei»m&d force capable of defending ■ ■ftha country frorn potential iiwatldrsj (It) an5 the ppeservatioa *%^ vi* . > a pro-v^^-Dorn ovicnvCiuion. W3 wLa'^/^ltiii ■* l;-33 r a Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 -. — > -, P O licloo directed toward .tiio aoMevolasnt suffer froa the- concentration of pc:-er in the hands of the President. M^o Slnh. Plea, and a snail clique headed by his e>:- M« trolly influential and powerful brother* Kgo Ein ftfcu Continued receipt of U3 military, economic anet technical aid, application cf Catholic philosophy^, and the repulsion 01 tee ■ Viet Cong gaesrillas are additional c&Jo? policy considerations. * • Planned courses of action include: (l) the building up of the armed forces with U3 aid and assistance; (2) defeat cf tixf Viet Certs forcesj and {3) the implementation cf a series of reforr.v3 aud &3a&\sr£3 to correct imbalances in the po&ox* hior- • . Certainly sose-of the projects v;e are inplc.;;entin~ are outright B&3 efforts such as the defoliation project and "or.r-e all the earmarks of gimrdeks that cannot and will not win the war. In South Vietnam, However, the constltaent of 03 units to > advice then in conjunction with increased economic and Ddraiiii- I strative aid., should riaka it obvious to the Vietnamese and the ■ * - " ^ <* Asia. not bo or SV1I sixrricien^l7 to raDist Co: : iriunIat pi^ODBure and v/in trio v:a^ t extent en tho futur^o action or lack cf ac&ien o£ one minj Proolc^^nt; B^.o:n, and fchs wall of th3 Vlstsaa^se people to fight ^ a _V* • ilk 1 « 1 ' » * ^ UAH Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 f - i * i f *+* -^ THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF WASHINGTON 25, D. C. 4*' 1 v.zx> CM-491-62 JAft 1 8 1952 MEMORANDUM FOR GENERAL LANS DALE Subject: Vietnamese Command Problem (C) 1. As you point out in your memorandum of 27 December 1961, it is quite clear that Diem l s apprehension about a coup is the basis for his reluctance to authorize his military field commander to imple- ment the task force concept that was an important part of the over -all plan of operations against the Viet Cong, I fully agree that this basic issue needs to be resolved, • » 2, You are well aware that Chief MAAG, Vietnam, in accordance with his assigned mission, has operated principally as an adviser and trainer rather than as a commander. As such he has suggested and counseled, dropping ideas which the Vietnamese could pick up and incorporate in their own plans. This method H saved face" for them, and has been the accepted method of overcoming simultaneously the inexperience and the pride of the Vietnamese officers, Nov/ a strong case can be made for increased direct participation by US personnel in the planning and supervision of Vietnamese counterinsurgency opera** tions. Inherent in such increased direct participation should be some assurance of US support for Diem personally. Convincing Diem of this personal support remains a principal task of the senior US representatives in Vietnam, The increased US military stake in Vietnam should be of great assistance in this task. ** f V V 3« In my view, however, some of the decisions made during the 16 December SecDef meeting at CINCPAC Headquarters offer a greater .hope for progress in Vietnam, It was agreed that, while we should con- tinue to press for acceptance of an over-all plan or concept of operations, we must place immediate emphasis on smaller, more specific, and more readily-accomplished operations. Such a technique is more likely to be acceptable to Diem, At the same time, successful small operations will provide the impetus for larger scale offensive operations, ■ * • > -^». 1 x. ■; Mia I 4 KJ ..<»_ * «**». 1^ . » ^,_ t«^ * r— - •w_, "— 't Exc&rcs ?;:c:: .'.r-.w •?<.-* j 83G2&iin; r??- 112 5200 -10 1 ^ V *• -■■■ j&&^*&£z&£> «v - • ' i . - - . - - * - . » • REPRODUCTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IN WHOLE OR IN PART tS PROHIBITED EXCEPT WITH PERMISSION OF THE --* — — ■ — •- ■ r. * *, % . , _ l v^TL. -^52 T* $*\ "*\ * 1* -* }r\ " »A *^j ■*** ?& -f -7 #,J*C5 n. -» . . *fb. h Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 I 4. I don t t believe there is any finite answer to the question you pose as to how wc convince Diem he must delegate authority to subordinates he docsn t t fully trust* V/e discussed this subject at considerable length at Monday's (15 January 1962) conference in Honolulu, The Ambassador, General McGarr and other top level officers of the Embassy and MAAG recognize the nature of the problem and the importance of reaching a satisfactory solution thereto. If it was not for the heavy responsibilities you are now assigned which would preclude your going to Saigon, 1 believe that one of the best ways to deal with this problem would be to implement the earlier recommendation to send one Brigadier General Lansdale out to Saigon to be personal adviser and conlidant to Diem, L. L. LEMNITZER /\ Chairman / \ Joint Chiefs of Staff I 1 cc: Secretary McNamara Deputy Secretary Gilpatric Admiral Heinz ■ ■ . i » ■ ^-Il-Ih-'-- ^PRODUCTlOf. OF THIS DOCUMENT m WHOLE OR IN PART (S PROHIBITED s\ 'I t rm c-rpnr? Copy .„,.<- of — J,Q„ Copies - . -- ■ - ! | 3 - . -2- b. To insure that such recognition is reflected in the organization, training, equipment and doctrine of the U.S„ Armed Forces and other U.S. agencies abroad and in the political, economic, intelligence , military aid and infor- mational programs conducted abroad by State, Defense, AID, USIA and CIA. Particular attention will be paid the special training of personnel prior to assignment to MAAG's and to Embassy staffs in countries where counter- insurgency pro- blems exist or may arise. c. To keep under review the adequacy of U S resources to deal with actual or potential situations of insurgency or in- direct aggression^ making timely recommendation of measures to apply, increase or adjust these resources to meet anticipated requirements, d. To insure the development of adequate interdepartmental programs aimed at preventing or defeating subversive insur- gency and indirect aggression in countries and regions specifically assigned to the Special Group (C. I.) by the President, and to resolve any interdepartmental problems which might impede their implementation. In performing the above functions, the members of the Special Group (C.I ) will act on behalf of their respective departments and agencies, and will depend for staff support upon their own staffs, and upon such country or regional interdepartmental task forces (normally chaired by a State Department Assistant Secretary) as may be established. The Group will confine itself to establishing broad lines of counter- insurgency policy, subject to my direction and decision as appropriate, insuring a coordi- nated and unified approach to regional or country programs, and verifying progress in implementation thereof. It will also undertake promptly to make decisions on interdepartmental issues arising out of such programs. The critical areas initially assigned to the Special Group (C. I a ) pursuant to paragraph d of this memorandum are set forth in the attached annex. Attachment Mtf ,*""*• • "-■■-■, r . - k>3 i -i c >"■-•■■ 7\ - ■ . Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 8 ,. o r o :li\-L ANNEX. TO NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 124 Hereby assign to the cognizance of the Special. Group (Counter-Insurgency) the following countries: Laos South Viet-Wam Thailand khk -■^^y-' * ■* Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 i t >s : sei n THE SECRETARY OF STATE WASHINGTON TOP SECRET January 26 , I962 Dear Mr. Gilpatric: I have received your letter of December 28 to the Secretary on the question of an increase in the Vietnamese armed forces to the 200,000 man level. The matter was discussed with our Task Force while Ambassador Nolting was here on consultation. In view of the gravity of the situation in Viet-Nam and of the importance of not interrupting the accelerated rate of our assistance to Viet-Nam, we agree that an increase to about 200,000 should be supported provided the following factors are given careful consider- ation: 1. That the U.S. military advisers and the Vietnamese authorities continue the joint effort to build up a set of valid tactical and strategic plans. We suggest that the locus of this effort should be in Viet-Nam in order to obtain fall Vietnamese cooperation and to meet the speed requirements of a guerrilla war where a large number of incidents are constantly occurring. We would envisage strategic plans made in Saigon giving priority to areas to be cleared and held and setting forth general methods to be used. We believe these should be accomplished by numerous small tactical actions planned and executed by American and Vietnamese officers on the spot to meet the local situation at the moment. 2. The rate of increase to approximately 200 .,000 men should take into consideration: a. The ability of the army to absorb and train these men without unduly weakening its fighting ability. b. Viet-Nam The Honorable Ro swell \ Gilpatric a Deputy Secretary of Defense. W+5 r~~ **, — n *". -^ '-* — - - - 1 Sec Def Cont. No. 502 : v - Ui Utxai L id} l S *&■■ t , Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 TO? SE3SET -2- b. Viet-Kam must husband its rnanoover resources carefully. A Eininun number of- trained civilians tnaist be left at their posts in order to at least partially satisfy the rising expectations of Viet-ITair^s citizens. 3. That the armed forces night best level off at about 200,000 with future emphasis to be devoted to strengthening and enlarging the Civil Guard and Self Defense Corps. Their job would be to hold ground that had been recovered. i 4. That henceforth our training program for AHVIT be based primrily on the concept that the Vietnamese ariry will start winning on the day when it has obtained the confidence of the Vietnamese peasants. As a specific escasiple 1 suggest that we immediately seek Vietnamese implementation of a policy of promptly giving a s:.— 11 reward in rice, salt or :.;oney (coiEnooiirf.es in which the Viet Cong short supply} ~:o every person vho gives indorsation to the ar;y, Similarly, villajes which show determination to resist the Viet Con; should receive the promptest possible support. I would be glad to receive any cos to the foregoing* seats you ray have with - ? "~\ ~^> i*"* T /2 Deputy Under SecsetsLry* ' * * ^* ' ' for Political ^fsdrs / / ^ •pais q -v* a -vt» ■ •* i, 1, p Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ^ i 4 t - *- 27 January 1962 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT The Joint Chiefs of Staff have asked that the attached memorandum, stating their views concerning the strategic importance may be required if the situation continues to deteriorate, be brought to your attention. The memorandum requires no action by you at this time. I am not prepared to endorse the experience with our present program in South Vietnam. Robert S. McNamara cc: Sec. Rusk kkj . *._ .... T , „ ! . ■ SecDef Cont. No. 490 ¥1 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 W. SECRET THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF WASHINGTON 25, D.C. JCSM- 33-62 (33JAH1SS2 /:-- r \ '-, M * *-» * "* j* MEMORANDUM FORTKE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE C iJf »•: M Subject; The Strategic Importance of the Southeast Asia Mainland (U) / j^ 1. The United States has clearly stated and demonstrated that one cf its unalterable objectives is the prevention of South Vietnam falling to communist aggression and the subsequent loss of the remainder of the Southeast Asian mainland. The military objective, therefore, must be to take expeditiously all actions necessary to defeat communist aggression in South Vietnam, The immediate strategic importance of Southeast Asia lies in the political value that can accrue to the Free World through a success- ful stand in that area. Of equal importance is the psychological impact that a firm position by the United States will have on the countries of the world - both free and communist. On the negative side, a United States political and/or military withdrawal from the Southeast Asian area would have an adverse psychological impact of even greater proportion, and one from which recovery would be both difficult and costly. * t 2 J It must be recognized that the fall cf South Vietnam to communist control would mean the eventual communist domination of all of the Southeast Asian mainland. There is little doubt that the next maior target would be Thailand- Cadres are now being established in that country and n land reform" or "capitalist dictatorship" ploys may prove fertile exploitation fields for the communists. Thailand is bordered by a "pink" Burma, and a . vacilLatin^ Cambodia, either of which will easily fall under communist pressure. Thailand would almost certainly then seek closer accommodation with the Sine -Soviet Bloc, SEATO would 1 ' * ^ J Copy / of 9 Copies es;h ce^xi**- BWBi pages senes #!•?» *&k V-iS G0C3 r ! hi HfidJ km L— - * m . *v ».%, ■. i-- DOTOGRADBD AT 12 YS-B INTERVALS; HOT AUTO^TIC^Y DSCUSSIFISD. DOI^ DK 5200.10 # f ! ^ V r ft f # t Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 (fi. .-.-. TOfi SECREi] L ( probably cease to exist* The only determined opposition to a communist drive would then be Malaya and Singapore. While the people of Malaya have the will to fight arid might have the backing of the United Kingdom, the country- itself would be isolated and hard pressed. The communist element .in Singapore is strong. Short of direct military intervention by .the United States, it is questionable whether Malaya and Si igapore could be prevented from eventually coming under communist domination or control. i" 3.' Military Considerations, (The Appendix contains a more i d. . . — - \ — , * — ^ derailed appraisal ot these military considerations.) a. Early Eventualities - Loss of the Southeast Asian Mainland would, have an adverse impact on our military strategy -aac! would markedly reduce our ability. in limited war hy denying us air, land and sea bases, by forcing greater intelligence effort with lesser results, by compli-' eating military lines of communication and by the introduction cf more formidable enemy forces in the area. Air access and access to 5300 miles of mainland coastline would be lost to us,* our Allies and neutral India would be outflanked, the last significant United Kingdom military strength in Asia would be eliminated with the loss of Singapore and Malaya 2.r±& US military influence in that area, short of war, would be difficult to exert. * k* Possible Even t ualities - Of equal importance to the immediate losses are the eventualities which could follow the loss of the Southeast Asian mainland. All of the Indonesian archipelago could come under the domination and control of the USSR and would become a communist base posing a threat again 5 1 Australia and New Zealand, The Sino-Soviet 31oc wov have control of the eastern access to the Indian Ocean. The Philippines and Japan could be pressured to assume at best, a neutralist role, thus eliminating two of our major bases ox defense in the Western Pacific. Cur lines of defense then would be pulled north to Korea, Okinawa and Taiwan resulting in the subsequent overtaxing of our lines of communications in a limited war. India 1 s ability to remain neutral would be jeopardized and, as the Bloc meets success, i$B concurrent stepoed-up activities to move into and control Africa can be expected. . ♦ /- r mp V V o — --- ; m M "' ■'/'-•.' ■»• * - • < . » r Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 i TOP. SECRET ■ r-" —^ f 4* Politic?.! Considerations J The Joint Chiefs of Sta.fi wish to * — ^.~ — m mm m + ■■» »«■« ■ '■ W I mm ■<— -m m • ^ ^ ■ MM | ■sv* ax: tii*s loss of South Vietnam to cither communist insurgency or aggression. must prevent the communist control or domination of the Southeast Asia mainland and must extend its influence in that arei in such a manner as to negate the possibility, ox any luture communist encrOachirxsiita It is recognized that the military and political effort of Communist China in South Vietnam and the political and psychological thrust by the USSR ir.io ;he Indonesian archipelago are not brushfire tactics nor merely a campaign for control o£ the mainland area. More important, it is part of a major campaign to extend communist control beyond the periphery of the Sino -Soviet Bloc and overseas to both island and continental areas in the Free World, through a most natural and comparatively soft outlet, the Southeast Asian Peninsula, It is, in fact, a planned phase in the communist timetable for world domination. V/hereas, control of Cuba has opened for the Siivo-Soviet Bloc more ready access to countries of South and Central America, control of Southeast Asia will open access to the remainder of Asia and to Africa and us tr alia. . rSmjlrt consideration of the formidable threat to the Free "world which is represented i:r the current actions in South Vietnam, the need for US and GVN success in that area cannot be overemphasized. In this connection, reference is made to the staff level document entitled "Summary, of Suggested Courses of Action" prepared for General Taylor for reference in his mission to South Vietnam. On 21 October 19^1/ this document circulated comments and recommen- dations on 20 courses of action that could be taken in South Vietnam short of the direct utilization of US combat forces » The Joint Chiefs of Staff note that, in keeping with the President's decision that we must advise and support South Vietnam but not at this time engage unilaterally in combat, all of the courses of action recommended with few exceptions have either been implemented or authorized for implementation. In this connection, it is noted that the Vietnamese Government has specifically requested further assistance from the United States. ( terrors — v* „ **•"" I 3 "Sfc> ' ■* -.[TOP. SECRET ' * - ** "* - *- N > ' ■; ■ ■ * - ' -» ■ **' _ _ _ . . . • •— _'■ -■- V- I * ttft: !> *) .>' y*. «- U£*A ■-: %« t - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ ; f~7 # |a response to President Diem's -request for assistance and the^agreeiiient between tlie governments, me:., money, materials and advice are beirig provided to South Vietnam, Unfortunately, our co&iributions are not being properly employed by the South Vietnamese Government and major portions of the agreement have either not been carried out or are being delayed by Diem. 7 t ■ : i ! * ' 8, For a combined US/Vietnans effort to be successful, there ■ must be convbiaed participation in the decision making process. To date efforts made on both the military and diplomatic level have failed to motivate Diem to agree to act forthrightly on our advice and properly utilize the resources placed at his disposal* He has been slow to accept the plans and proposals of Admiral Felt and General McGarr and he has in many instances disregarded the advice of Ambassador Noliiug* The reason for Dieni's negative reaction to proposals to save South Vietnam while he maintains a positive position that it must be saved may be found in CINCPAC's appraisal of his character - an uncompromising inflexibility and his doubts concerning the judgment, ability and individual loyalty of his military leaders. Recent intelligence reports of coup d'etat plotting involving senior Vietnamese military officers and the possibility that high Vietnamese officers have approached US officials tend to confirm Diem 1 5 doubts concerning the loyalty- of some of his military leaders. 9* £n this regard, should a successful coup overturn Diem, v/e might discover that many of Diem's difficult characteristics are national rather than personal. The Vietnamese are tough, tenacious, agile, proud, and extraordinarily self confident. Their recent political tradition is one of the multiplicity of parties and ?rouns inclining toward conspiratorial and violent methods. The disappearance of a strong leader who can dampen and control these tendencies could v/eil mean reversion to a condition of politic?.! ch?.o- exploitable by the strongly led and well disciplined communists. If Diem goes, we can be sure of losing his strengths but v/e cannot be sure of remedying his weaknesses. Achievement of US objectives could be mere difficult without Diem than with him. Therefore, it must be made clear to Diem that the United States is prepared and x &z. '■ 1 « s * • ■ - . if- w - f . _ .. . - «. — . - s-1*^fi»* V^'- - (» — ■ . ■ ■ • * k5 1 - - ± i ♦ « ta6 crrQFT Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 •57' TOP SECREi willing to bolster his regime and discourage internal factious which may seek to overthrow hirn. »* 10. In consideration, of the foregoing, the Joint Chiefs of Staff believe that there is an immediate requirement for making a strong ■ approach to Dions on a Government- to- Gove rr.ment level. If we are to effectively assist South Vietnam, w-e must convince Diem that (a) there is no alternative to the establishment of a sound basis upon which both he and the United Stages Goveri^p.e.it can work and (b) he has an urgent requirement for ad\"ice, as well as assistance, in military, political and economic matter 5. " 11. Accordingly, it is recommended that you propose to the President and to the Secretary cf State that: a. Upon his return to Saigon, Ambassador Nolting meet with President Diem and advise him. that, since the United States considers it essential and fundamental that South Vietnam not fall to communist forces: (1) The United States is prepared and willing to bolster his regime and discourage internal factions which may seek to overthrow him. (2) Suitable military plans have been developed and jointly approved. Diem must permit his military commanders to implement these approved plans to defeat the Viet Cong . •• i*- *r (3) There must be established an adec^uate basis for the reception and utilization of US advice and assistance •by all appropriate echelons of the GVN.' {4} There must be no further procrastination, m (5> Should ii be found impossible to establish s*uch a satisfactory basis for cooperation, the United States foresees failure of our joint efforts to save Vietnam from communist concuest77 CIZ. Vigorous prosecution ol the cameairm vith present and olamiod assets could reverse the current trend. If, with Diem's full cooperation ami tae effective employment of South Vietnam armed - \ <* - ,"-^-T" — ■«[> m ~^T£» * •■ — . .- I * 7»J =-.*-•->•£.—, - « * At t ft" .. ■ : .•*'--■" ^ '■■■ 4 ***& e'v: ■ ~- '. '*1t i* V ■»• — ...» '-r - — * *T *>: *■ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 52 - - TOP SECRET forces, the Viet Con^ is not brought under control, the Joint Chiefs of Staff see no alternative to the introduction of US military combat • forces along with those oi the free Asian* nations that can. be persua.ded to participate. . . - • 13* Three salient factors are of the greatest importance if the eventual introduction of US forces is required, . a. Any v/ar in the Southeast Asian Mainland will be a peninsula and islav.d-type of campaign - a mode of warfare in which all elements of the Armed Forces of the United States have gained a- wealth of experience and in which we have excelled both in World War II and Korea, [Wagers b. Study of the problem clearly indicates that the communists are limited in the force? they can sustain in v/ar in that area because of natural logistic and transportation problems, * c. Our present world military "posture is such that we now have effective forces capable of implementing existing ■ contingency plans for Southeast Asia without affecting to an * unacceptable degree our capability to conduct planned operations in Europe relating to Berlin or otherwise* » 14. The Joint Chiefs of Staff "recommend that in any consideration of further action which may be required Because of possible unacceptable results obtained despite Diem's full cooperation and the effective employment of South Vietnam armed forces, you again consider the recommendation provided you by JCSM- 320-61, dated 10 May 19ol that a decision be made to deploy suitable US forces to South Vietnam sufficient to accomplish the following: , a. Provide a visible deterrent to potential North ietaarn ana /or Chinese Communist action; b. Release Vietnamese forces from advanced and static defense, positions to permit their future commitment to " counterin.3ur^ency actions; r c. Assist in training the Vietnamese forces; * ■ v - , i i - - N *•* «53 * . \y**~z- :^u'j> , c Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NVVD Date: 201 1 • * ■*• ■ . TOP. SECRET * n d. Provide a nucleus for the support o£ any additional -US or SEATO military operations in Southeast Asia; and e. Indicate the firmness of our intent to all Asian rations. ■ * * V/e are of the opirdon tliat failure to do so under such circumstances will merely extend the date when such action must be taken and' will i make our ultimate task proportionately more difficult. For the Joint Chiefs of Staff: : Attachment •?uj~ td-'-d A . A . of^-^4/ L. L. LEMKITZSR Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff ^ 1* /-■*** ^ * K J- ** \ .■* - —>— -. k, V'toai sagafe *sj; «= i 7 ; !■; 5 Ll * 4 i - - * TO? Sfi*Q -- "■- ■ ■ . — T* ----- m i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 \ ( THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON i ' February 19 , 1962 SECRET NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 132 TO: The Honorable Fowler Hamilton The Administrator Agency for International Development (SUBJECT: Support of Local Police Forces for Internal Security and Counter- Insurgency Purposes) As you know j I desire the appropriate agencies of this Govern- ment to give utmost attention and emphasis to programe designed to counter Communist indirect aggression, which I regard as a grave threat during the 1960s. I have already written the Secretary of Defense tr to move to a new level of increased activity across the hoard" in the counter- insurgency field. Police assistance programs, including those under the aegis of your agency, are also a crucial element in our response to this challenge. I understand that there has been some tendency toward de- emphasizing them under the new aid criteria developed by your agency. I recognize that such programs may seem marginal in terms of focusing our energies on those key sectors which will con- tribute most to sustained economic growth. But I regard them as justified on a different though related basis, i.e., that of contributing to internal security and resisting Communist- supported insurgency, I am further aware that police programs, as a relatively minor facet of the functions of the aid agency, may have tended to receive little emphasis as a result. Therefore, I would like you to consider various ways and means of giving the police program greater autonomy within AID, if this seems necessary in order to protect it from neglect. ^55 f~ .<£ * » Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 'i . , SECRET I fully rectrpiize that police programs must be looked at on a case- by-cace basis ma that in some instances they can indeed bo cut back or eliminated, I simply wish to Insure that before dos&jj no we have taken fully into account the importance of the counter-insurgency objective as 1 view it> In earn, I should like AID to review carefully it3 role in the support of local police forces for hiternal security' and countor-iasurgeacy purpose o j &n& to recommend to me through the Special Group {Counter- Insurgency} what now or renewed emphases are desirable. (signed) JOHN F. KENNEDY Information Copy to: The Secretary of State The Secretary of Defense The Attorney General Director of Central Intelligence Director, Bureau of the Budget Director, Peace Corps General Maxwell D, Taylor N *<* SEC HEX * ■* Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NMD 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 -^ ' -- -jW7-l -„* 7-,- ♦;»* C THE WHITE HOUSE P y WASHINGTON CONFIDENTIAL , March 13, 19^2 NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 131 TO: The Secretary of State The Secretary of Defense The Attorney General .. The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff The Director of Central Intelligence The Administrator, Agency for International Development The Director, United States Information Agency SUBJECT: Training Objectives for Counter- Insurgency 1. The President has approved the following training objectives for officer grade personnel of the departments and agencies indicated above who may have a role to play in counter- insurgency programs as well as in the entire range of problems involved in the modernization of developing countries, a. The Historical Background of Counter-Insurgency Personnel of all grades will be required to study the history of subversive insurgency movements, past and present, in order to familiarize themselves with the nature of the problems and characteristics of Communist tactics and techniques as re- lated to this particular aspect of Communist operations. This kind of background historical study will be offered throughout the school systems of the responsible departments and agencies, beginning at the junior level of instinct ion and carrying forward to the senior level. b. Study of Departmental Tactics and Techniques to Counter Subversive Insurgency Junior and middle grade officers will receive instruc- tions in the tactics and techniques of their particular depart- ments which have an application in combating subversive insurgency. This level of instruction will be found in the schools of the Armed Services at the company/ field officer level. In the case of the Central Intelligence Agency, this kind of instruction will be offered at appropriate training installations. The State Department will be responsible for organizing appropriate courses in this instructional area for its own officers and for representa- tives of the Agency for International Development and the United ^57 Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ - - - - i • - 1 , States Information Agency. Schools of this category will make available spaces in agreed numbers for the cross -training of other U.S. agencies with a counter -insurgency responsibility. c. Instruction in Counter-Insurgency Program Planning Middle grade and senior officers will be offered special training to prepare them for command 5 staffs country team and de- partmental positions involved in the planning and conduct of counter- insurgency programs. At this level the students will be made aware of the possible contributions of all departments , and of the need to combine the departmental assets into effective pro- grams. This type of instruction will be given at the Staff College- War College level In the Aimed Services. -The State Department will organize such courses as may be necessary at the Foreign Service Institute for officials of State , Agency for International Devel- opment and United States Information Agency. All schools of this category will make available spaces in agreed numbers for the cross-training of other U.S. agencies with a counter- insurgency responsibility. d. Specialized Preparations for Service in Underdeveloped Areas There Is an unfulfilled need to offer instruction on the entire range of problems faced by the United States in dealing with developing countries 5 including special area counter- insurgency problems , to middle and senior grade officers (both military and civilian) who are about to occupy important posts in underdeveloped countries. A school will accordingly be developed at the national level to meet this need, to teach general (including counter-insurgency) policy and doctrine with respect to under- developed areas , to offer studies on problems of the underdeveloped world keyed to areas to which the students are being sent, and to engage in research projects designed to improve the U.S. capability for guiding underdeveloped countries through the modernization barrier and for countering subversive insurgency. In addition, this school would undertake to assist other more specialized U.S. Government institutions engaged In underdeveloped area problems (i.e. 3 those conducted by the Foreign Service Institute, Agency for International Development y the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Services, including the Military Assistance Institute and the Central Intelligence Agency) to develop curricula on the non- technical aspects of their courses of instruction. e. Training of Foreign Nationals % It is in the interest of the United States to provide counter- insurgency training to selected foreign nationals , both in the United States and in their own countries. The emphasis U58 : P f '. t y i— * Declassified per Executive Order 13d26. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 03316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 se i i i choulcl ha placod on those coiui trios with an actual or potential ccuivb^r-in^ur^oncy problou. This training vill ho given in the following plr.333: (l) In facilities operated by the Departr.isnt of Defense : and the Central Iniellige&cc Agency v:hich are ayailable to i foreigners •, ' ! *-.".' jr* \ ' (2) In special facilities operated by tho Bopar fcient ox : Defense end tho Agency for International Development in " Panama for ths benefit of foreign nationals, (3) U.S. riAAGs/iiission^ a&3 USGIb in countries with cc^tor-iu^ur^cncy rro^rcis. * * 2# It is desired that tho Special Group (Gcimter-Insurgency) explore Vf.yz of cr^rd^lng a school of tho typo described 121 paragraph 1 d above m a natter of urgency aud develop appropriate recc^e^daiioas • Tho Special Group (Count sr-In.rorj-sncy) should olco esfeaiiia the possibility of setting up interim couraea at the Foreign Service Institute end/or at tbo National War College to fill the gap during Consideration of & now school* 3, It is clasired that the addressees egsrafa&e the coaster- insur^ncy training which is currently offered in their dopart::?nt3 and agsncio.3, a&d to report by June 1 # 1962 upon the adequacy with Which it moots tho tratrd:i3 objectives acove*. If any deficiencies are dotor- idi&d to e:dst, tho responsible doportbszit or agency will report its plan for correcting theru N 1 — -~~ r /o/ MpGeorge Eimdy * • k 5 9 5*1 1 * • '.' *>*.< * ,1 * «■ i f .* 1 ?* ts l SecDcf Centre! No. SJlXt^L CL x Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET -2- l v_/ In the light of the foregoing we urge the following: 1. That it be our policy to keep open the door for political solution. We should welcome as a solution any broadly based non- Communist government that is free from external interference. It should h^ve the requisites for internal law and order. We should not require that it be militarily identified with the United States. 2. We shall find it useful in achieving this result if we seize any good opportunity to involve other countries and world opinion in settlement and its guarantee. This is a useful exposure and pressure on the Communist bloc countries and a useful antidote for the argument that this is a private American military adventure, 3« We should measurably reduce our commitment to the particular present leadership of the government of South Viet-Nam. * To accomplish the foregoing, \ie recommend the following specific steps: 1. In the next fortnight or so the ICC will present a report which we are confidentially advised will accuse North Viet-Nam of subversion and the Government of Viet-Nam in conjunction with the United States of not notifying the introduction of men and materiel as prescribed by the Geneva accords. We should respond by asking the co-chairmen to initiate steps to re-establish compliance with the Geneva accords. Pending specific recommendations, which might- at some stage include a conference of signatories, we should demand a suspension of Viet Cong activity and agree to a standstill on an introduction of men and materiel, ■ 2. Additionally, Governor Harriman should be instructed to approach the Russians to express our concern about the increasingly dangerous situation that the Viet Cong is forcing in Southeast Asia*. They should be told of our determination not to let the Viet Cong overthrow the present government while at the same time to look . without relish on the dangers that this military build-up is causing in the area. The Soviets should be asked to ascertain whether Hanoi' can and will call off the Viet Cong activity in return for phased^ American withdrawal, liberalisation in the trade relations between the two parts of the country and general and non-specific agreement to talk about reunification after some period of tranquillity. 3» Alternatively, SECRET . ,1 !i ;62 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I * « • * SECRET -3- . C s. 3» Alternatively, the Indians should be asked to make such an approach to Hanoi under the same terms of reference. 4, It must be recognized that our long-run position cannot ' involve an unconditional commitment to Diem, Our support is to non- Communist and progressively democratic government not to individual We cannot ourselves replace Diem, But we should be clear in our mind that almost any non-Communist change viould probably be beneficial and this should be the guiding rule for our diplomatic representation in the area. * In the meantime policy should continue to be guided by the following: 1, Vfe should resist all steps which commit American troops to combat action and impress upon all concerned the importance of keeping American forces out of actual combat commitment. 2. We should disassociate ourselves from action, however necessary, which seems to be directed at the villagers, such as the new concen- tration program. If the action is one that is peculiarly identified with Americans, such as- defoliation, it should not be undertaken in % the absence of most compelling reasons. Americans in their various roles should be as invisible as the situation permits ♦ i ■ SECRET m Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ""' 63 - ; THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF WASHINGTON 25, D.C. /t*\ p-n f?& r^ V^ R??i G PR '3 1/* 33 OFF SECY OF OFFENSE MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JCSM-282-62 1 3 APR 18S Subject: US Policy Toward Vietnam (U) u) "'-< .-//•■;; 1, Reference is made to a memorandum by the Assistant Secretary of Defense (ISA) dated 10 April 1962, requesting comments on a memo- randum to the President by the Honorable J. K* Galbraith, US Ambassador to India, wherein he proposes changes to the present US policy toward Vietnam and the government of President Diem, 2, The burden of Mr, Galbraith 1 s proposals appears to be that present US policy toward Vietnam should be revised in order to seek a political solution to the problem of communist penetration in the area. The effect of these proposals is to put the United States in a position of initiating negotiations with the communists to seek disengagement from what is by now a well-known commitment to take a forthright stand against Com- munism in Southeast Asia, 3, The President of the United States and the Secretary of Defense both have recently and publicly affirmed the intention of the US Govern- ment to support the government of President Diem and the people of South Vietnam to whatever extent may be necessary to eliminate the Viet Cong threat. In his letter of 14 December 1961 to President Diern, President Kennedy said: ■ "Your (President Diern's) letter underlines what our own infor- mation has convincingly shown «-- that the campaign of force and terror now being waged against your people and your Government is supported and directed from the outside by the authorities at Hanoi. They have thus violated the provisions of the Geneva Accords designed to ensure peace in Vietnam and to which they bound them- selves in 1954, T « Copy l^^XZL of ,/L. Copies each , tt n 1* ol £L paqes series "A \ '; ^ h . DOWNGRADED AT 12 YEAR INTERVALS; NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED. DOD DIR 5200.10 1 V Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 *- • • f * J I- s h* Ft, „V- luv-a J "At that time, the United States, although not a party to the Accords, declared that it would view any renewal of the aggression in violation of the agreements with grave concern and as seriously threatening international peace and security. We continue to main- tain that view, n ■ "In accordance with that declaration, and in response to your request, we arc prepared to help the Republic of Vietnam to pro- tect its people and to preserve its independence, " 4, The various measures approved for implementation by the United States in. support of our objectives in South Vietnam have not yet been underway long enough to demonstrate their full effectiveness. Any reversal of US policy could have disastrous effects, not only upon our relationship with South Vietnam, but with the rest of our Asian and other allies as well. 5. The problems raised by Mr. Galbraith with regard to our present policy have been considered in the coordinated development of that policy. The Joint Chiefs of Staff are aware of the- deficiencies of the present government of South Vietnam. However, the President's policy of sup- porting the Diem regime while applying pressure for reform appears to be the only practicable alternative at this time. In this regard, the views of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as expressed in JCSM-33-62 are reaffirmed, 6 # It is the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the present US policy toward South Vietnam, as announced by the President, should be pursued vigorously to a successful conclusion. , r For the Joint Chiefs of Staff: L. L. JLEMNITZER Chairman Joint Chiefs of Statff l|65 t .& .**■•. *7? I' '* ml ■ • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 REC$?Sp TANT SECRETARY OF DEFENS: V/ASH1NGTON 25, D. C. 1962 APR 16 09 14 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS X-l62$kfo2 SHCY CF DEFENSE *» 14 APP1962 /-V • * COVERING BRIE? TO: The Secretary of Defense UUJ FROM: The Assistant Secretary of Defense (ISA) I signed) ;Vv Eaydja Willie 3 x / Y5 Acting Assistant Secretary Problem: To respond to the President's request for your comments concerning Ambassador Galbraith ! s memorandum on Vietnam. Discussion : The President's request for comments did not specify that only military aspects should be treated. In view of the nature of Ambassador Galbraith's memo, . meaningful comment necessarily ranges beyond the narrow military implications. However, the proposed comments conform with Special Rational Intelligence Estimate Ko. 10-62, dated 21 Feb o2. Mr/ Cottrell of the Department of State advises that Ambassador Galbraith's memorandum has .*- not been referred to State for formal staffing and comment, Mr. Earrimaa regards it as a private com- munication to the President from Ambassador Galbraith. However, an initial draft of the attached memorandum to the President was reviewed by Mr. Cottrell and his comments liave been considered. Recommendation: That you sign the enclosed memorandum. RlJ • Concurrences: ITone required. - ^3 # * / — V EOJJ Dia." 52C-a.lO %. r\ r> 'f> k^"t ml Pi i i 'J ,- >• » *\ 1-i u Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 8 i , TOP SECRET May 29, 1962 NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 157 TO: The Secretary of State The Secretary of Defense The Director of Central Intelligence Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff SUBJECT: Presidential Meeting on Laos, May 2k, 1962 The President has approved the following Record of Actions for the subject meetings; At the meeting on the situation in Laos held in the Cabinet Room at *f:30 p.m. today, the President requested contingency planning in the event of a breakdown of the cease fire in Laos for action in two major areas: (a) the investing and holding by Thai forces with U.S. backup of Sayabouri Province (being that portion of northern Laos to the west of the Mekong River); and (b) the holding and recapture of the panhandle of Laos from Thakhek to the southern frontier with Thai, Viet- namese or U.S. forces. In connection with the above contingency plans, the President desired an estimate of the military value of the Mekong River in Sayabouri Province as a defensive barrier in relation to the cost of taking and holding it. The President also asked that the above planning be undertaken unilaterally by the United States without discussion at this time with the Thais or the Lao. 1 TOP SECRET SecDef Cont. No. 3320 ■ * i ~ ... i-* j Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ' 7 TOP SECRET The President also indicated that he contemplated keeping U.S. forces in Thailand during the period of the 3-Prince negotiations and the early days of the government of national union, i.e. as long as they serve a necessary purpose. The President observed that a cable would have to go in answer to Bangkok's 1844. McGeorge Bundy TOP SECRET 468 1 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SEGRET/KOFCSN ft a DEPARTMENT OF STATE BUSEAU Or INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH 51 - 4. v. Research Memorandum RFE-27, Juno 18, 1962 TO 1 FE - Governor Karriman /\ [, FROM s IKa - Roger Hilsman \l^ SUBJECTS Progress Report on South Vietnam" R AS MaSjla. .;. Please do not remove from Room 6±9» EA-"£ In this report, an expansion of an earlier informal paper, wo summarize tho riajor goals and accomplisliments of the present counter - insurgency of fort against Communist armed and subversive for cos in tho Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam)* A briof assessment of the general situation is also included* It should be emphasized, however, that this report" is not a complete appraisal 3 it does not, for example, discuss Communist strength, capabilities, a_nd achievements in recent months nor compare those with those of tho Viet name so Government It. should also be noted that this report does not follow tha usual format of a Research Memorandum, 1 , 1 . I. W&T ARE WE TRYING TO DO? a J 1 m a ■ mm A* Devise an integrated and systematic lailitary-political-econoialc strategic counter insurgency concept and plan to eliminate the Vietnamese Communist anaod**subversivo force, th3 Viet Gong, B, Orient the Vietnamese Government's military and security forces inerea Ingly toward counter-guerrilla or unconventional warfare tactics, Co Broaden the effective participation of Vietnamese Government officials kti the formulation and execution of government policy c*--* D Identify the populace with the Vietnamese Government's struggle a^ainat the Viet Cong* ._ I 4 "1 % inal analysis of the material contained in this report w^suCpn&ftidod on June 10, 1962. * ■* i- r» v o 3 SECRET/HCF03N Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SEGRET/N07CRN II. PROGRESS: WHERE ARE YE? e plan is being B&pl eiaen'ted 1» 'Progress ...i, a .Delta Pacification Tlz\n (l) President Hgo Binh Diem approved a systematic counter- insurgency plan oa March 19$ 1962, vhich contains the bulk of the British Advisory Kiss ion's (headed by Ifi% R G«K. Thompson) r ©coma en da t Ions and those security coscapta developed by the US. Tha coimter insurgency plan is to bo implemented in 3,0 provinces around Saigon in the Mekong River delta region (tha so-called ^Delta Pacification Plan 1 *)* Col. Eoang Van Lac, a former proT&noo chief apparently regarded highly by Diem, is re- sponsible for executing the plan, operating under the authority of Nguyen Binh Thuan, Seerefery of State for tha Presidency, and Ngo Dinh Khu, Diora ! s brother and principal political adviser. (2) ^Operation Sunrise 1 * in Binh Duong province Just north of Saigon, favored by. Diem, for special tactical purposes, constitutes tha initial effort in a systematic, province -hy-provinea pacification campaign. "Operation Sunriss* 3 is headed by Brig. Gen. Van Thanh Cao, the administra- tor of the Southeastern Provincial Region, Three strategic hamlets have been constructed in Binh Doong province as a resvlt.*of thi3 operation and, as of mid-Hay 1?62, more than 2, 700 persons had been relocated in these hamlets. (Two additional hamlets are in the planning or early construction stage.) They are wall defended and supported by Civic Actionl teams living with the peasantry arid assisting them in a variety of ways. Reports tend to be optinLstic as to the ultimate success of these hamlets. b. Otte^ Pacification Programs si, On Hay 8, 1?62, the second systematic operation to pacify a specific srea was started in Rni Ten province in central Vietraau It is known as "Operation Sea &rallo*r n and is similar to "Operation Sunrise" in method and objectives. (1) More than 80 strategic hamlets are to be constructed before the end of 1?62| a large number are already in the process of final construction. (2) As of May 18, 1?62, there vera more than 600 Civic Action personnel in Phu Ten province formed into more than 70 teams; another 11 teams were to be formed within two weeks/ -As in l! 0peration Sunrise", these teams assist in tha construction of strategic' hamlets, organize government services, and help the peasants in a variety of ways. SECRET/K0F0RN - w I Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 5 I? SECHET/1K)F0R2I -3 - c. StrateglcJfUl.^ges and Hamlets (1) The strategic village -hamlet concept has taken hold within the Vietnamese Government and is now priority national policy, (2) President Diem signed a decree on February 3 5 1962 creating a special "Inter ministerial Committee for Strategic Hamlets" to coordinate the program on a countrywide basis. Tha committee is . officially chaired by its Secretary General, Secretary of State -for Interior Bui Van Luong, but actually operates under Ngo Dinh Nhu. (3) Estimates on the number of strategic villages and hamlets vary. As of December 1961, the Vietnamese Department of Interior reportedly tabulated almost 800 such villages and 'hamlets although in February 1962 the 133 Embassy estimated that possibly there were only l£0~200 such settlements scattered in more than half of Vietnam's 39 provinces, principally north of Saigon. In April 1962, the Secretary of State for Interior informed a IB Mission inter -agency group, the Province Pacification Committee, that there were 1,300 strategic hamlets already in place. (k) On June 6, 1962, about f>00 officials from all provinces completed a special training course on strategic villages and hamlets • Training reportedly emphasised the Civic Action aspects of the strategic village -hamlet program as well as the responsibilities of the officials involved, ... ■ d. Civic Action •»«■ (1) The Vietnamese Department of Civic Action Fas reorganized in January 1962, creating (I) a central Civic Action Service in Saigon by combining related and heretofore separate services within the Department end (ii) an integrated Civic Action office in each province and district. (2) As of January 1$&2 3 a Civic Action chief and deputy chief reportedly had been assigned to every province in Vietnam. ■ (3) The Civic Action teams working In strategic villages and hamlets, particularly in support of ^Operation Sunrise" and w Operation Sea Swallow, * are excellently oriented and are doing a good job.. ■ m (1|) USGM has established a committee to provide on a priority basis direct 133 assistance (and to coordinate such assistance) to Civic Action operations through the relevant Vietnamese Government agencies. (5) The Vietnamese Department of Defense is also organising its own Civic Action program. ©. Internal Security and Police Services (1) The importance of the counterlnsurgancy role of the rural internal security services is reflected in the US IJiasion's re common da tion that the Civil Guard be increased to 90,000 by JT 1962 and the SelT Ibfense Corps to 80,000 by FT 1963. SKGffiT/EOFGRtf ~- : L'71 7( Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET/HOFGKM (2) As of the end of April 19o2 s 89 Civil Guard companies or tfSwttt 12, COO psr^cr^al and 276 Self Dsferisa Corps plateora or about 10,500 personnel had bean trained „ The goal is reportedly to train a total of scsaa k9 5 COO Civil Guard and 60, COO Self Defense Corps personnel by tha end of 1$62, (3) The 7ietn&rr.££o Government, with the holp of IB Oft, has taken stops to extend the pollea system to rural areas in view of tho gap created by the parwilitsrl'satdLon of tho & eourity services* AID is soak- ing to hire 20 additional polioa advisers for rural area*. (The present I50M advisory police eoiag&ement in Vietnam is just over 20 personnel moat of yhrm operate principally in urban areas*) 133 aid for tha police program for FT 1962 is 03$3*£ uOltan (of which US$2 3 million is for eeaaaoditiea), In addition to about U3$U minion In unused aid. (It) As of tho end of May 1?62 5 almost 2 C 8 Million of the estimated 7 million parsons of tho age of 18 years or ov*r have baen Issued Identity earda* As a result cf this effort, over 2,000 military deaertera and 52 Viet Cong agents have boen apprehended Sid abottt k,000 irregt&arliies in tha previous ide&tity card program bars been uncover ad. f . Tillage Radio System • (1) As of tho end of May 1?62 3 mora than 530 USOM-diatrlbuted eoss&ttniostion radios had boon installed in villages and other p3Ltu»9i in tho provinces of Gia Binh, An X^en, BInh Duong, Dish Thucng 8 Kien Giang, Kien Phong, Tay HSrfh, and Ehuoe Tiy. Sins a the rata of installation 1-3 now about 300 radios par month, USOM expaots to have mere than 1,000 village radios installed by the end of July 1?52. Another 1,000 sets are scheduled to be installed soon thereafter, thus equipping mora than 2,000 villages with radio ooisaKmloatioa facilities. j (2) The public safety role of village radica ms dorccnatrated on Kirch 20, 1962, whan a joint tBOM^Yiotnamaaa radio installation tasa vas attacked by Viet Cong guerrillas* Tha security eso.ort engaged the Viet Cong while tha teaia proceeded to install the village radio and then nc if io.d district teadqusrtera and noarby villages* Assiatanoa wag despatched and resulted In an as&uah of tha Viet Gong as they vera fleeing toward another village which had been alerted. g. Utilisation of US A-ssisianoe ■ (1) Effective utilisation and integration of US non-military assiafcanoe to Vietnam was strengthened by AID action in March 1962 | establishing first, ssoond, and third priorities en tha basis cf tho * itt»di&ie bsspact of aid projects on the counter insurgency efforts first priority pre-jscta ara those With iiflpact during tha next 12 feontha, includ- ing, for example. Rural Development, Prfblic Safety (especially radio sets) and Health Servicssj second priority projects are those with impact during > i- ■ SEORE^/iOFOKH iJ72 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 n I ' SEGRET/KOFGRN S the next 1 to 3 years, including, for example, Agricultural Credit and Cooperatives and Highway; and Bridge Construction) and third priority projects are those Kith long-term economic and social significance. ■ (2) The US Mission has established a number of inter- agency groups, such as the Province Pacification Committee, for the purpose of coordinating and expediting assistance to Vietnamese Government projects in rural areas, (3) In anticipation of future needs, the US Mission is also taking measures to stockpile commodities (for example, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, barb wire, fence .posts, fertiliser, etc) which would be re- leased on short notice for immediate despatch to the countryside • 2. Critique a* Although the bulk of the British Advisory Mission f s recom- mendations have been incorporated into the "Dolt a Pacification Plan, H the enabling presidential decree omits the Mission's "proposals on "prompt payment of compensation for damage to property or loss of life,* 3 on "complete coordination of all civil and military action, n on a "clear chain of command," and on "direction and coordination of the information services and psy-war .units," . i b* US and British officials in Vietnam have voiced serious concern I over (i) President Diem ! s delay in approving the organizational and implementing machinery for the "Delta" plan and (ii) a possible subordina- tion of the "Delta" plan to the strategic village -hamlet program. It has been very recently reported, however, that President Diem has approved a merger of the "Delta 1 * and the strategic village -hamlet organizations! machinery and has agreed to give the 10 provinces specified in the "Dolta^ j plan first priority, subject to modification as required by developments in the security situation, - - c. Although the Vietnamese Government is giving the strategic village -hamlet program high priority, there is reliable evidence that the program suffers seriously from inadequate direction, coordination, and material assistance by the central government and from misunderstanding among officials at the provincial and local levels. Province chiefs have tended to draw up unrealistically high quotas (generally in order to please the authorities in Saigon), and the lack of sufficient resources provided by the government at the local level has in. certain instances resulted in poorly constructed and poorly defended settlements and in financial levies on the peasant. Moreover, the construction of thase settlements has not followed any particular pattern or plan based on priorities, In his reported recent merger of the "Dalta" plan and the strategic village-hamlet program, however, President Diem has . indicated that priorities would be established, SEGRET/H0F0RN 13 ■ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET/KOFOIN ■ - 6 - eL Although the mission of ths Vietnamese Bepartm&nt of Civic Action is being oriented increasingly toward supporting strategic Villages and, hamlets, it appears that there is still considerable emphasis on informational and intelligence activities. This has reduced the effectiveness of Civic Action operations and has been sor^vhzb detri- mnt&L to the favorable reputation built up in the past by Civic Action parsomiGlo Ttie Civic Action B^partmeiffe also suffers from ^aak leadership and internal power rivalries, e* The principal problem of the Civil Guard and Self . Daf etisa Corps pertain to tactical utilisation which is discussed be^ov, under B. Ifcwav&r. thsre is also some question as to whether these services are being trained and equipped adequately and as rapidly as necessary. f 4 Village radios will substantially improve tha defense of the countryside and tha reaction capability of the Vietnamese military and security forces. However, no effort has yet been made to fjspsrove radio communications at the hauls t level where the battle with the Viet Gong 1m actually joined, ■ g. Two of tha principal weaknesses in the effective utilisa- tion of US aid are insufficient a'tJareness on the part of central authorities in tha Vietnaiaess Governpiftnt of the need to establish project priorities and ths general inability of thase authorities to act quickly to despatch aid i>'t support of projects in tha countryside. Tho distribution of US aid im&h be approved in most c&ses by President Diem per so nail j 3 frequently resulting in delagra and in administrative bottle -necks* Moreover,, Dism continues to exhibit considerable sensitivity to atteiapts by US officials to distribute aid directly to the countryside without clearance frott the central government. Recently, for example, tha Vietnamese Goverrmasnt turned doim a U3QH proposal aimed at increasing the impact of US aid at the local level by establishing a special fund for direct financing of provincial projects. . ! B» The Vietnamese armed and security forces are being oriented toward ccuiLtor-gucrriLIe or Kneonventional Tsari are tactics . !• .Progress a. Air Support ■ a Baal - aaaaa^aaa — a_^a_ • — - a _ a ■_■_ a> ■ (1) Halicoptsr operations have decreased the reaction tLia and increased the mobility of aanny and security units. (2) Luring May \6f&% 1^62 5 fl^tnamsa Air Force and US helicopter units flew at least 3u7 sorties -US vers offensive sorties^ 2l6 sorties lit hod X s fXX troops and 2!^0GD pounds of ccgo of which 12,000 pounds vore air-droppsd3 # and 85 sorties v#* far air ©vacation, observation training, and other mie^lon^^ " [^h SSCEEP/NDFrail If k Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SEGRET/NOFCRN f b. Tactical Utilisation of Army and Socuri * (1) Tho Vietnamese Army is getting cut and fighting more than over before. During March 20-28, 1962, tho armod forces launched J more thsm 23 operations of at least company sizo throughout ths country. •' Boring April 12 -May 3, 1962, more than 11 oporations were launched, each operation Involving more than a battalionj some of those oporations continued beyond May 3* (2) Army units are becoming more conscious of tho necessity of following through daring attacks In order to prevent the Viet" Gong » * jfrora disengaging (3) Civil Guard and Self Dsfcnao Corps units apparently are being employed Increasingly with army units « During April 12-May 3, 1962, for example, Civil Guard and Self Defense Corps units were combined with vtw units in at least 3 oporations There have also boon reports of Civil Guard units receiving helicopter support* - (k) There are reports of effective utilisation of artillery bombardment* In early March 1962, for example, a combined Army ranger, Civil Guard, and Self Defense Corps force engaged the Viet Gong in Kien Boa province o Artillery was introduced only after tho Viet Cong attempted to withdraw, harassing their escape routes and inflicting substantial casiialtioSo ,..*.}. » (5) Army ranger units are being deployed in the highlands area, recognising tho equal priority of this area with the Mekong River delta region where** the pacification program has been initiated. As of February 1962, there was a total of 18 ranger companies in tho I and II Amy Corps Areas (6) It is estimated that some 3,000-5,000 Hbntagaard tribes xsen hive been recruited and are being trained and armed by the Vietnamese Amy against the Viet Cong in the highlands area* In addition, there are s$me irregular Montagnard units, * 2* Crltiqua a Despite the increasing utilization of Civil Guard and Self Dafonse Corps units jointly with army forces, the former continue to be ' employed excessively on Independent offensive missions. The principal stumbling block to the rectification of this problem is the province chief under whose authority the security services operate * b* Despite the Increasing deployment of ranger units in the highlands area^ there is no evidence that these units are being U33d to any appreciable degree for patrolling the VietnameseC-Lac frontier. SSCRET/N0F0RN 4(5 % 73 r ■ r Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 3ECHET/K0F0H?J - 6 - c* The principal deficiency in the utilisation of air support is not tactical but rathsr is related to the availability and reliability of intolligonco on the Viot Cong. BSFoacfanacT" soir^what. lo Progress .- a. Military commanders in tho field cro playing a greater rolo than in tho past in tho actual formulation and execution of operational plans. For example, Each of tho planning of "Operation Sunrise 1 * and * "Operation Soa Shallow" has been carried out by Vietnamese Array, division commanders and thoir staff?* . .. a - t b. Col, Lac has boon delegated limited but real authority for executing the c Balta Pacification Han 11 and for his recent and concurrent responsibilities in tha strategic village -hamlet program. m c.i There has been limited us© of tho National Internal Security Council established in Ita comber 1961, d. Th© Director of tho Central Intelligence Organization, Colonel Kguyen Van Y s has boan delegated real though limited authority both with regard to his intelligence responsibilities and his concurrent rolo as head of tho regular police services 5 tho National Sureto and tho Municipal Police* t e. Thsre is evidence that tho authority of certain cabinet msmbors has bacn increased^ notably Secretary of State for tha Presidency Thuan and Secretary of Stats for Interior luong. m f * The Vietnamese Government has also taken various measures to improve morale among rank-and-file military and security personnel. Ih^ January 1962, the family allowance rates for Amy and Civil Guard privates, privates first class, and corporals (as wall as the coirbat pay ratas for Army personnel in thaso ranks) were increased, and Arny conscripts be- came eligible to receive a private's pay after completing four months rather than one year in service, m 2. Critioua # - Ineffectiveness In administration at tho nations! lovol, in carry- ing out tho control fractions of tho government, and in extending services to tho countryside continue to represent tho Tlatanm Government's main weakness. In large measure, this is duo to the limited authority President Diem delegates to his subordinates. Diem continues to make " • SBGRKE/MQFCRU »* Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SBCHET/NOFCKN s virtually all major decision? and even many ralnsr ones, to roly largely on his Inner circle of official and unofficial advisors rather than on his cabinet officers and the formal channels of military and civil coromand In formulating and exocuting policy^ and to interfere personally in purely end of tea miner o^rational matters # Discontent "within the government bureaucracy and the military establishment with these tactics by Diem and his lieutenants does not appear to have decreased substantially during th past yoar. Tho prospects that Diem may change his method of operation are not favorable o . " . •- o . esc *u President Diem*s frequent travels to tho ccunfeyside muy have Improved somewhat tho popular image of the central government. During July-Docembor 19ol, for example, Diom made 18 known trips outside Saigon and visited 19 different provinces (9 in tho central and northern provinces and 10 in tho Mekong delta provinces) b. There Is evidence that villagers are passing an increasing amount of information on the Viet- Cong to government officials Dae striking example is the Viet Gong attack en an Army pest In An Eoa In Quang Ngai province on April 6, 1962 ? (The Vict Cong used about 300 man, wall armed with rocoilless rifles and machine guns.) As a result of an earlier warning by villagers of a possible attack, the Army unit was on alert and, when the attack came, repulsed the Viet Cong with serious XiHtnar, c. It appears that defections from the Viot Cong may be increasing It has been estimated that only around l;0O Viet Cong surrendered to govern- ment forces during all of 196l Since the first cf 1962, however, BS military sources have been reporting statistics en Viet Cong surrenders #n - a veekly basis, and it is estimated th*t during February 13-April3.'Q, more -than 20? Viot Cong surrendered. (These and other statistics on the Viet Gong are derived from various official Vietnamese sources and must b; treated with caution since tho Vietnam Government is prone to exaggerate thera.) r d. President Diem signed a decree en lb-comber 18, lj?6l 5 piovid- lug for the establishment of provincial councils, ultimately to be elected by popular ballot but for the time being to be appointed by the central government. (Youth representatives on village councils have boon elected v since early I961.) I e. According to the chiefs cf Kent urn smd H$Iku. province, ec-me 35,000 Kontag nards have been resettled from Viet Ccng*infe£tod to relatively secure areas in these two provinces since January 1962 as a result of coordinated measures by Vietnamese military and civilian officials. These measures have boon aimed at reducing .the. Viet Cong's access to tribal elements for recruits, labor, intelligence, and supplies. SECRET/1.W0RN - ' * - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECREtf/NOFORN - 10 2. Cri^iaua • ' ' "; ■ m a. Dsspits favorable developments, thorns has boen no major break-through In improving tha popular linage of the government^ particu- larly in the countryside. In the short run 5 tho success of this effort will dopend largely on tha degree of physical security provided the ' peasant ry, but in tha long run tha key to success will be tha ability cf the government to walk tha thin lino of meaningful and sustained assistance to the villagers without -£bYious efforts to direct^ regiment 5 or control them, ■ bt Thora is growing concern among Vietnamese field personnel in KonUiTj PIsIlaL and other proving that tho Vietnamese Government is not moving fast enough to provide adequate assistance to tho Hontagnard resettle- ment program and^ as a result, that tho Viet Cong may succeed in subverting tesettlement efforts, According to one report almost 70' 5 O00 of an estimated lOpjOGO Montagnard refugees have not yet boon resettled. i . > his SECRET/NOFORN Declassified per Executive Older 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET/1I0?0RN - 11 c 111 • smi«g_ asses&ieot A. It Is about three months since the current phase of a major systemati count or insurgency effort began in Vietnam, and too short a tine to expect any substantial wakening of tho Communist position*- Moreover, final victory is 3.1kely to take soms years and to ba brought about mors by a steady erosion of Communist strength than by dramatic military successes. ■ Bo In the military-security sector, US. materiel, training, and advice, supplemented by tactical support by US units, have produced an improve- ment in armed operations against the Viet Cong* US military operational reports reflect improved tactics, shortened reaction times, and more effective use of communications and intelligence* It is too early to Bay that tho Viet Cong guerrilla-terrorist onslaught is bsing checked, but it can bo said that it is new moating more effective resistance and having to cope Kith increased aggressiveness by the Vietnamese military and security forces. Nonetheless, the Via!.; Cong continue to increase tho J J? armed strength and capability and, on balance, to ero4e government authority in the countrywide* " - * C. There has not been a ccreasponding improvement in other sector s of tho total count or insurgency effort. Serious problems remain in the civil and military command structures and in the exercise of command responsibility » Diem continues to prefer personalised rule through a very small group of trusted official and unofficial advisers and traditional methods in matters affecting domestic politics?! opposition* Civil government effective- mss is a3,so impeded by shortages in experienced personnel, payticular3y at louer lovols, and aggravated by confusion and -suspicion at moist levels of tho bureaucracy* More effective direction and coordination and realistic Implementation are needed, for example, for such crucially irTportant program as the "Delta 11 plan, stratogic villages and hamlets* said Civic Action, and greater. authority must be delegated to upper echelon civil and military officials in or dor to make better use of Vietnamese Government resources* * Similarly, while there are encouraging signs cf popular support for %e government, there has been no major break-through in identifying tht people vith the struggle against the Viet Cong 'O* D* yjo conclude that* 1 9 thora is no evidence to support certain allegations of substantial deterioration in tho political and military situations in Vietnam: Q 2* on tho contrary, th«o is evidence of heartening prepress in bolstering the fighting effectiveness cf the military and security forces* SEGRET/NOFCRN r. - ';79 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 33 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ' "> SECRET/NOFCHN - 12 ~ 3, howover* there is still much to bo dona in strengthening tha overall capacity of tha Vietnamese Govornmont to pursua its total counter- Insurgency offortj not only In ths military-security sector but particularly In the politlcal-adininiStratlvo sactorj it* a judgmont on ultimata success In the campaign against tho Communist °»ar of national liberation" In Vietnam is pr^aturej but $* 170 do think that tho chances aro good 5 provided thcro is continu- ing progress by tho Viotnamasa Government along tho linas of its present strategy* • s ECRET/JJQFOaW - 4 *. .'SO Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 the; white house WASH INGTON SECRET . June 19, 1962 NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 162 . TO: SUBJECT: The Secretary of State The Secretary of Defease*** The Attorney General The Director of Central Intelligence The Director, United States Information Agency DeveloDment of U.S. a,nd Indigenous Police, Paramilitary and Military Resources The President has approved the following statement and proposed assignments of responsibilities to various agencies as recommended by the Special Group (Counterinsurgeucy): ■ The study of U.S. and indigenous paramilitary resources pursuant to NSAM 56 reflects gratifying progress in the development of an adequate U.S. capability to support both the training and active operations of indigenous paramilitary forces. Certain deficiencies, however, were clearly revealed. Tho deficiencies, to which all efforts and shortcomings to date are related, should be-the^ basis upon which internal defense requirements are established for eaxh country to be assisted. m i ■ 1, Country Internal Defense Plans m - With one or two exceptions, there exis- no outline plans to unify and orchestrate U.S. internal defense programs and_3.ctivities in friendly countries facing a threat o: subversive insurgency, or which provide strategic guidance for assisting such countries to maintain internal security. The Department of State has prepared %. list identifying the countries facing a threat of subversive in* surgency and will direct the formulation of outline plans for internal defense (Country Internal Defense Plans) by the Country Team in each such country which encompass the total U.S. - supported internal defense field. Those plans will include the SECRET ■w C /i K81 *"* - -. "^ -* £ ffc*..t„_i ^-7/~>-: Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63310. By: NWD Date: 201 1 & : i SECRET - 2 - i - * military, police, intelligence and psychological measures cemprisin a well rounded internal defense plan 3nd w ill be consi stent with the military, eco nomic, political and social measures constituting the overall country plan. Such plans should be completed and in the hands of the Department of State by September 1, 1962, available for review by the Special Group (Counter ins urgency). From that time on, in accordance v/ith the provisions of NSAM 124, the Special Group will keep these country internal defense plans under periodic review, and insure prompt resolution of interdepartmental problems arising in connection with their implementation. 2, Improvement of Personnel Programs of Agencies Concerned with Unconventional Warfare A study will be made by the Armed Forces and appropriate civil agencies concerned with unconventional warfare activities of how to improve their personnel programs. Particular attention will ■ * be directed to the following: a * * * * (a) Personnel programming for officers and men, in- cluding establishment of career programs which protect the special skills and professional qualifications of per- sonnel assigned to unconventional warfare duties. " m * - w j • (b) Ability to perform efficiently in foreign area^-in conditions of stress and danger for prolonged periods. (c) Morale factors such as fa" ill/ housings tours of • duty, hardship allowances, hazardous duty pay, special recognition such as rewards, 3. Orientation of Personnel • — - , I — ■■» ■ — -^— — ^— ■! ■■ W ll— » * As oart of the current effort to irain more personnel in the problems confronting underdeveloped societies, both civil and military agencies of the Government will assign, where feasible and sub jeer to the availability of funds and personnel, middle-grade and senior officers to temoorary duty for orientation purposes in selected countries ex- * periencing internal security problems. SECRET ■» hod ..J "N Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET . - 3 ■ - 4.* Deployment of Counterinsurgency Personnel In order to Insure a timely deployment of qualified countering urgency specialists to impending crisis areas, CIA and AID will take action to insure that adequate qualifier personnel with paramilitary skills are available. Periodic reports of progress to achieve this objective will be submitted to the Special Group (Counterinsurgency) by CIA and AID. % H * ■ 5. Support 61 Covert Paramilitary Operations * : ■ • More Special Forces personnel will be assigned to support CIA- covert paramilitary operations where acute insurgency situations exist. The Department of Defense has taken steps to expedite these assignments. In addition the Department of Defense v/ill increase its capability to fund, support, and conduct wholly or partly covert paramilitary operations under the criteria of NSAM 57 which distinguishes responsibilities of the Department of Defense and CIA: , - Where such an operation is to b* wholly covert or disavcwable, it may be assigned to CIA, provided that it is within the normal capabilities of the agency. Any large paramilitary operatic n wholly or partly covert which reouires significant numbers of ■militarily trained personnel, amounts of military- — ' equipment which exceed normal CIA-controlled stocks and/or military experience of a kind and ■ level peculiar to the Armed Se*- /ic^: is properly the primary responsibility of the Department of Defense with the CIA in a supporting role. This cooperation will be intensified and the President Avill be given periodic reports on the progress of these efforts. ■ 6, Increased Use of Third Country Personnel . " ■ - ■ — — ■ — ~ ^ ^~^^ _ The Department of Defense, in collaboration with the Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency, will undertake a study to determine on a selective basis the feasibility of the concept of the increased use of third-country personnel in paramilitary operations. Particular attention will be given to the following: SECRET Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET . - A (a) The whole range of this concept frorfi the current limited use of Thai and Filipino technicians in Laos to the creation of simply eouipsed regional forces for use / in remote jungle, hill and desert country. Such forces would be composed of foreign volunteers supported and controlled by the U.S. (b) The feasibility of using third-country military or paramilitary forces to operate inder their own or other national auspices in crisis areas. 7. Exploita tion of Minorities In view of the success which has resulted from CIA/US Army Special Forces efforts with tribal groups in Southeast Asia, continuing efforts v/ill be made to determine the most feasible method of achieving similar results in other critical areas. On a selective basis, CIA and the Department of Defense will make studies of specific groups where there is reason io believe there exists an exploitable minority paramilitary capability. 8# Improvement of Indigenous Intelligence Organizations Recent experience shows that most underdeveloped countries need more efficient intelligence coordination and dissemination systems to counter subversive insurgency. Therefore, the CIA wilTexpand its present training and support efforts to achieve needed improve- ments in indigenous intelligence organizations and that other U.S. agencies contribute to this CIA coordinated program. * 9. Research and Development for Cou.iterinsurq ency The Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency v/ili carry in their research and development programs a special section devoted to the requirements of countering urgency* The Special Group (Counter ins urgency) will follow up on this action and receive reoorts from time to lime with regard to Dro^ress in developing modern eauiDment suitable to meet the reouirements of counterinsurgency. McGeorge 3undy « • SECRET If All Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 3 ■ i THE WHITE HOUSE WAS H I NGTON SECRET August 24, 196Z NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM NO. 182 TO: SUBJECT The Secretary of State The Secretary of Defense ^ The Attorney General The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff The Director of Central Intelligence The Administrator j Agency for International Development The Director, U.S. Information Agency The Military Representative of the President Counterinsurgency Doctrine The President has approved the document entitled " U.S. Overs eas Internal Defense Policy 11 , which sets forth a national counter- »- — insurgency aocfrine for the use of U.S. departments and agencies concerned with the internal defense of overseas areas threatened- by subversive insurgency, and has directed its promulgation, to serve as basic policy guidance to diplomatic missions, consular personnel, and military commands abroad; to government depart- ments and agencies at home; and to the government educational system. The addressees of this NSA.M will take action to insure that the policies set forth in the document are reflected in depart- mental and agency operations and in such additional instructions and guidance as may be required to assure uniformity of effort* They will also initiate the formulation of the internal doctrine, tactics, and techniques appropriate to their own department or agency, based upon "U.S. Overseas Defense Policy. 1 ' These studies when completed will be reviewed by the Special Group (CI). SECRET S it . \ •%• * \ ^ « v. I .-85 / Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 '= ■ s* . I .— * V -. rr> SECR2T - 2 - ■ The Department ex State In consultation v/ith' the other addressees of this memorandum is assigned the task of keeping the "U. S. + Overseas Internal Defense Policy" up to date, making such modification as changes in policy or practical experience may require, and publishing revised editions as necessary. I Ify ^ McGeorge Bundy I N r i » SECRS r\ rs Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ^ / / // < A. '6? . - '*>^r.--- ' ggCKOT/ttaptft risass dc cot rs.jva/ic r? DEPARTMENT OF STATE . . 7 r The GVN han givert priority' to Implementing a basic strategic concept featuring the strategic hamlet and sys- tematic pacification program:;.. It has paid more attention to poHtieal, economic, and nocial counterinsiurgency measures and their coordination with purely military measures. Vietnamese military and security forces -- now enlarged and of higher quality -- are significantly more offensive-minded and their counterguerrilla tactical co-onbilitier, are greatly improved. 1 Effective GVN control of the countryside has :been extended slightly. In some areas where security has improved peasant attitudes toward the government appear alsp to have improved. *This report is based on information available through November 12, 1 A. Backgrounds Rapid Deterioration B. The Current Situation 17 18 1* Political Attitudes of Diem and His Family \ % 2. Diem and the Bureaucracy • •**,♦ m m # # « jo 3. Diem's Position in the Countryside , 20 ii, Iftem's Position in Urban Centers 21 '■ STr^SP/HOFCRN sbu Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 1U SECRET/WORN TABL3 OF COinE MT ( Continued) Pago IV. Economic Trends • ♦ . ♦ ♦ 22 V # Outlook 2k A. Communist Actions 2U B. GVil Count or Insurgency Effort 26 C. Tho IB Role 23 D. Political Situation 29 < . £>£- CStET/raFQRH *i t 1 2 HI Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 SECRET/2I0F0RN I, THE laTPHE OF THS CCfrfMJHIST THREAT TO SOUTH VIETNAM The Communist threat to the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) consists of three interrelated elements. Within South Vietnam, but under the direction cf tha Democratic Republic of Vietnam (IKV), zn expanding campaign of guerrilla warfare and terrorism and an intensive political psychological subversion effort are carried out by an apparatus commonly known as the Viet Cong,* left behind by the IHV after it withdrew most of Its military forces to the north in 1$£U and since reinforced by local recruitment and infiltration from the EtV* Externally, the IRV holds over South Vietnam the tacit threat of invasion by the numerically superior North Vietnamese military forces In part because the Government of the Republic of Vietnam (GVN) focussed its defense efforts too much upon the Implicit external threat and too little upon the internal threat, not only was it unable to counter effectively the develop Lng Communist movement but also its authority and internal stability In the period from late 19$9 until early 1962 ?re increasingly weakened by Viet Cong insurgent end subversive activities* Since the early part of 1962 however $ the rate of deterioration appears to have decelerated as a result of substantially increased US assistance to South Vietnam and expand- ing GVN implementation of its broad military-political counter insurgency program* The apparent inrprovement is principally in the security sector, but with some resultant effects on the political situation . Many US advisers in South Vietnam, as vrell as President Ngo Dinh Diem and other top GVN officials, are more optimistic and believe that the deteriorating trends in effect have been checked and that the tide is new being turned in favor of the GVN Whether this optimism is justified may well be deter- mined by developments during the next few months ■j 3 a w— — "Viet Gong is the popular term used by the South Vietnamese to refer to Vietnamese Communists, singularly or collectively* For all practical purposes, the Viet Cong apparatus is an extension of the North Vietnamese Communist Party, tijMjg *££ Iton* Viet Kam or merely Lao Itong) which also operates in Laos, Gain£odia, and other countries witFT^ortant Vietname&a minority groups* SECRET/KOFCSH • * i- ^ I- ^ o 4 a 2 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 secret/noforn -2- A. Strategy and Objectives In South Vietnam , the Communists are clearly embarked on a "national liberation war" of insurgency and subversion from within rather on overt aggression. It is probably the Communist view that this strategy greatly reduces the risk of direct US military intervention and, at the same time, provides good prospects of success at relatively little cost. In addition, it permits the Communist Bloc to claim continued adherence to the 195^ Geneva Agreements, This strategy was most recently reaffirmed by the Third National Congress of the North Vietnamese Communist Party in Hanoi in September i960 and the Moscow conference of all Communist parties held the following November and December, The immediate Communist objectives are to demoralize the South Vietnamese public and the military and security forces, weaken and eventually supplant government authority in the countryside , and discredit and ultimately precipitate the overthrow of President Diem's government. Simultaneously, the Communists are attempting to gain broad popular support for their effort, including the creation of a "united front" with non- Communist elements, and gradually to strengthen and transform their guerrilla forces into regular forces capable of undertaking a general offensive. The DRV is the implementing agency for Communist activity in South Vietnam, It exercises close control over the Viet Cong guerrillas and over the"National Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam" (NFLSV), the political instrument of the Viet Cong. However , while Hanoi is probably allowed considerable freedom .of action, Moscow and Peiping probably would have overriding influence over any major decision critically affecting the situation in South Vietnam, as for example, international negotiations on South Vietnam, cessation of Communist guerrilla operations, and escalation to conventional warfare or overt introduction of North Vietnamese army units. In any event, important Communist policies for South Vietnam are probably coordinated with Moscow and Peiping and the latter scrutinize developments in South Vietnam carefully with an eye to their own interests. Both Moscow and Peiping also furnish strong propaganda support for the Communist effort in South Vietnam and, in addition, the USSR carries on supporting diplomacy, largely in its capacity as a Geneva Conference Co- chairman « There is little evidence of material support of the Viet Cong guerrillas by Moscow or Peiping. There are no apparent major policy differences between Hanoi, Moscow, and Peiping regarding South Vietnam. During the first six months of 1962, it appeared that Moscow differed somewhat with Peiping f s and Hanoi's propaganda for an international conference to settle the South Vietnam situation; t ^s difference presumably continues to -exist although little has been said by the Bloc on a conference since mid- 1962, There also may be underlying intra-Bloc differences on the subject of neutralization of South Vietnam or reunification. In any event, even though Moscow might prefer neutralization, all would work to communize a neutral South Vietnam if one were established. Moscow has also generally exerted a restraining influence over Communist willing- ness to take risks. ^93 ' * * t • X I ' ' SEGRET/toOFCRll : ' -.3-, * • ■ * The sharp increase of the US military presence in South Vietnam and the events of recent months in Laos apparently have not weakened Communist resolve to take over South Vietnam, However, these events have clearly caused some modification of Viet Cong guerrilla tactics and may have caused the Communists to revise their timetable . Nevertheless, the Communists probably continue to look primarily to the long run in South Vietnam and to remain confident of. eventual victory. B « Viet Cong Orggniz^ ■ !• Gsnoral* Available intelligence indicates that two parallel structures, military and political, exist at all organisational levels of the Vict Cong apparatus in South Vietnam* At the top of tho organization ©ro two bodies, tho Nairibo Regional Committee (KtC) and the Interzone V Regional Cansaitteo (IVHC)j equal in status and each apparently responsible directly to Emoi« The NRC directs and is responsible for all operations in the southern provinces, or roughly tho former Cochinchina region, while the IVRG directs and is responsible for all operations in the centra! and northern provinces These committees consist of sevoral staffs responsible for military and political activities The organization of the too regional committees appears to bo duplicated among intermediate and lower level committees responsible for operations at tho interpr ovine ial (i«e., area covering more than one province) , provincial., district, and village levels* Information is not available on the size of the political component of the Viet Cong apparatus, but it must be assumed that the regular and irregular guerrilla forces also serve as penotration, espionage, sabotage, propaganda, and terrorist agents Viet Cong capabilities have increased considerably during the past three years* In 195>9 a relatively small but effective military-political apparatus operating largely in the Mekong River delta provinces, the Viet Cong has since grown into a formidable force operating throughout the countrysida and even in many urban centers, including Saigon, the capital e In addition to increasing its numerical strength, the Viet Cong has significantly improved its military and political organization and its tactical, weapons, and subversive capabilities* 4 2 « ^i^fy .. .^^^fi,.^, Effectiveness . Communist assets for guerrilla action in South Vietnam are considerable. In spite of an apparently increas- ing casualty rate, Viet Cong hard-core personnel has grown from ^n estimated It, 000 in April I960 to about 23,000 in October 1962, These forces are distributed principally in the southern provinces, the former Cochinchina region which includes the Mekong River delta area and where most of the fighting occurs, Thoy are well-trained and well-armed (utilizing such weapons as light machine -guns and icortars and even £7 isu,rocoilloss rifles), Tho units into which these forces are organised range up to battalion and include ths key personnel infiltrated from Ebrth Vietnam These units in BCSET/HOFCRN 1 '4SH , Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 secret/i;o?cen * effect constitute the elite fighting elects of the Viet Cong force and operate at tho interprovincial, provincial, and district ****• ^^ e h?s Deen no hard evidence that the Viet Cong has yet formed regtoental- siL units or that thsy have an antiaircraft capability, other than the small arms which they are using vith increasing effectiveness agaxnst helicopters . In addition to this elite force, the Viet Cong has an auxiliary ' emed force roughly eatinated at 100, COO and distributed throughout the country. This force operates essentially at the village and hamlet levels and consists largely of part-time or full-time armed cadres and sympathizers. Its functions are probably varied, but there is considerable evidence that it serves as a local defense force, provides logistic support (food ana intelligence, for example), and constitutes the reserve from which personnel are drawn as replacements for tha elite force or to help activate new units. The auxiliaries appear to be partially trained and partially armed, fre- quently utilizing nothing mere than spears, scimitars, and a variety of small weapons manufactured In home workshops or "arms factories. n However, these limited capabilities apparently are partly offset by the ability of the auxiliaries, many of whom cannot easily be identified by tho GV1I, to pass themselves off as innocent peasants. ■ I3jr relying on small -unit actions and tactics of surprise, constant movement ^ concentration for attack^ and dispersal upon withdrawal, tho Viet Cong guerrillas have achieved considerable effectiveness. They ambush, carry out company-size attacks against army and security units, and have tho capability to strike in battalion force against several targets simul- taneously* According to official GVN statistics, the Viet Cong sine© I960 has killed more than 9?£00 and wounded at least 13*300 military and security personnel* In addition, the GVN estimates that at least 8,700 w local officials and civilians have been assassinated or kidnapped since i960* The Viet Cong appears to be well-informed particularly on the plans end movements of government forces sent on large counter guerrilla operations c Itorale is probably also good and desertions or defections to the GVN forces, although reportedly increasing, axe relatively few. In recent months, however, shortages .of food and the increased aggressiveness of GVN forces #The statistics on Viet Cong and GVN casualties are incomplete and not entirely reliable partly because -fee GVN probably understates its 01m casualties and overstates those of the Viet Ccng* Since the latter part of 1961* casualty estimates have improved largely because of tha increased US presences in South Vietnam. Despite reservations regarding their accuracy, these figures are helpful as one indicator of the magnitude of the fighting in South Vietnam* SECRET/l^FCR* Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 i SECRET/NOFGRN are believed to have adversely effected the moi-.ule and capability of some Viet Cong forces In the central provinces. 3« Viet Cong Logic tic Support a « L2£i^Support. The Viet Cong roi.ios principally on local resources to sustain its operations. Both tho character of this support and the mop.ns by which it is acquired vary considerably. It is obtained voluntarily, by propaganda and promises of mater Lai or political benefit, by threats and intimidation, and finally by outrjght force. It includes, among other things, personnel, arms, food, fund,-;, ^d intelligence. Host of the Viet Cong guerrillas and ago i its are recruited locally, vith a large percentage coming from the youth. Host of their weapons are either captured or stolon from GVN military and oocurity forces are manu- factured in home workshops or "arm factories" 1,, Viet Cong concentration areas, or are activatod from stocks cached silica the end of the Indochina war. A considerable portion of Viot Cong funds apparently comes from fees levied on buses and other means of transportation from taxes on the wealthy and on business enterprises (such as ruU,er plantations), and from ransoms paid for persons kidnapped. The Viet Co U g is entirely dependent upon the local populace and the countryside for food which is obtained through purchase, pilferage, capture of stocks, taxation (in the form of rice), and oven actual cultivation of crops by Sympathizers and part-time guerrillas. Finally, the ability of Viet Cong < :U errillas and agents to disperse, regroup, and indeed retain their pre^nce intact, even after .GVN military clearing operations have been competed, is considerably- enhanced by the concealment afforded them, voluntarily or otherwise by the local population, ' ■ • In addition, tho Viet Cong guerrillas and subversive agents rely : heavily on the villagers for information and suppled ; r < - . n .,• intelligence gained from espionage and from penetration of GVn military and civilian services. Intelligence supplied by the villager.-; t s lar K elv of a tactic natureand deals, for example, with the location and ^^Vl^TiS military and security forces and the defenses of individual army and security posts, villages, and hamlets. v b. External Sutyoort, The Viet Con^ ir^,™~ *,+ v in South TletaaSnrifii^edTTispired ^ orl^l t ^T it ^T^ »w«nent support from North Vietnam, howevi, appeals TuTfJS^ ^ * ?«?**** evidence indicates that there is no large^ca£ JlfSS *!?' "J ^^^S equipment. On the other hand, infilSLn 5l l ££*"?* m "* . • sporadic if not continuing basis and aSS^^S^f SZ T e\ ' as was probably the case during Kay and June 156.:, ' Infiltrators are believed to consist larr^w ~r -»i 4. . Military personnel, key political and S^fLSt^tS^f 5 - courts) ratter than units. Ho,evar, ta recent ShlSfSSbSn" 4 '* * . SECFJST/NOFORN ^9 n Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 % segret/koforn - 6- « two reliable reports confirming the infiltration of two Viet Cong groups (203 and ^00 men respectively) from southern Laos, There is considerable evidence that infiltrators in general are largely South Vietnamese (Cochin - chinese and Aimamites^ regrouped md retrained in Itorth Vietnam since the end of the Indochina war and familiar with the people and terrain of South Vietnam, They carry in then" own weapons and > in some instances, a limited amount of additional small and even large vreapons, technical equipment, medical supplies, and funds* The infiltrators apparently are distributed among existing Viet Cong units, thus increasing the number of hard-core personnel and thereby the capability of these units, or become the nuclei of new units. Since the latter part of i960, the principal infiltration routes have been through the corridor of southern Laos controlled by Laotian and Jforth Vietnamese Coramnlst forces. However ^ infiltration continues through eastern Cambodia, across the Demilitarized Zone at the 17th parallel, and by junk landings along South Vietnam's long coastline. In addition, Viet Cong guerrillas are believed to use the border areas of both southern Laos and eastern Canibodia to a limited extent for safo haven purposes during their hit-and-run attacks or when pursued by GVN forces if t, k* Political Capabilities - a * .^°_.0?j°f , "?y s * fesjftjggJP the Countryside There have long been major gaps in our knowledge of rural conditions in South Vietnam. In view of the overriding importance that the Viet Cong attaches to the country side in its strategy, thase gaps have now assumed critical prooortion3. Although our knowledge of rural conditions is improving, principally because of the substantially increased US presence in South Vietnam, any assessment of Communist political strength outside urban areas remains 'questionable and at best tentative. - The Viet Cong appears to have had considerable success in reducing or supplanting government authority in the countryside. By the latter part of 1961, US officials estimated that probably more than one half of the ^ f ! ^ r °?v 0n fT* *** soattaraa * °* Saigon, as well as several areas just to tas north and in the central and northern provinces, were under effective Viet Cong control by night, with the government generally capable of maintaining its authority only by day. Hany other area? were uLr vary- ing degrees of Viet Cong influence. y of n r 1 ir° r f- n %^ ? m °H f e 5 e nt 5nd «PParontly more refined study, US • £f,£ \ • tuBated ,^^.1962 that of South Vietnam's some 2^00 villages ^ich .contain around 85 percent of the total population, 20 percent wore ' effectively controlled by the Viet Cong. Although the Viet LlconLoned villages were inhabited by an estimated 9 per.enl of the xurS^SS* SECRST/13QF0?JJ ' ♦ * Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 f/ ( t SECRET/ITOFCRN - 7 - the t~t overt political organizations and provisional local gqverisrtent \mite. The political capability and strength of tins Viet Cong in the countryside is inextricably associated with and strcstgly dependent rpon its military presence and power. The threat ©a? the use of £&$&e $ as demonstrated by tho high rate of assassinations and kld&applngs of local officials and oven ordinary peasants^ is a continual reminder of the penalty of nonoeoporatlon with the local Viet Ge&g* Hsreover^ by success- ful military operations against the GVN, tho Flat Cong is able to demonstrate its superiority and it3 determination and Ability to mala* Is tiara, the political apathy of the peasant — .i.e., his traditicraal and overriding sensitivity and attachment to local, village, and ladM family matters and his minimal awareness of natlor^l or men regional Iwaaa and develop- rents « has mada him prcae to seek an accciracdaticai with whatever force seeing for ths laorant capable of exorcising authority, The Viet Cong. also usss non-violent, positive, mwm to ^^ea3 to the peasantry. Although thair tactics vary and dsfead partly en prevailing * ssciffir/JxiFoaw * Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3-3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 20 1 I * segres/kofc&n «D Q » t r [ L [ r ft local conditions, they have, for example, purchased rather thm seised rice and food ©tuffs in many cases, have taxed the wealthy with effective publicity * and reportedly even distributed land to landless peasants* Even their terrorist acts from tine to tims faaire bsen agalnat harsh, disliked, or corrupt officials* Tfrese acts are held cut as proof of the Viet Congas ability to improve' the peasant 3 a economic and political lot* Sheir appeal is enhanced by fee peasants basic distrust of government officials engendered partly by their excessive and harsh i&plomontation of government programs and by the average Tiataassasa bureaucrats belief that he does ncrfs serve but ir; to be served by the p&u$L%* Viet Osng propaganda to the peasant, therefore^ is both j/ositive and negative o It extols Viet Cong achievements andpesssr,* credits the Dosssmmist forces under Ho chi Minh ifith expelling $7ih French from Vietnam and3fi9fijpiag the north free of f *£ore5.gn control, 11 holds cut Moncnlo and political, indasejaents, derides? OT2J aqpsfcilltiMj and points to tha exsossivo, - oppressive^ and corr\Tpt character of GVH demanda and practice;, s as for ©scaiaple, military conscription and forced labor in the creation of strategic hamlets*. Viet Gong propaganda also exploits the Vietnamese peaaant 8 a credulity and eniralstic beliefs, spreading bisarre stories intended to lir*dt popular participation In goverrcaont prcgraroSo ■ Viot Cong penetration efforts have been "dire* ted largely against local govespESeat services sad &my. Civil Guard, and Self Bsf ease Corps field nnlta. lihilo the extant cf this penetration Is difficult to determine accurately, there have bean increasing reports in recent acnths of succeas- ful Viet Cong penetration of Self Uefenae Oarps units and strategic hefflleta Moreover, the apparent advance knowledge of some GVB all liary onoratlona end tha generally high rate of te w desertions is probably pariSy due to Viot Gong penetration cf Aragr field posts and training csntera. if«rf+~4 i b % S^^aa Sectc*. Qmnmlst activities la urban areas are limited largelylo propaganda, penetration, and terrorisa. She S^ediSo cbjectavo of these activities Is to encourage dissent and cpSaVtSn to Resident Bis* and the BS presence in Sout?Vletaam IrtUto^llrtZ**** aentnuents among intellectuale, professionals, SJSuS pohSc^S^ government officials, and labor and youth eroina %7+£?. PWlMotaaa and Cong h s to created cc^n gronnVSS SS'J^^T?!!* 2" Viot opposition elements, legitime it, WgeS5uo^^S^"fT anUt egimately precipitate Kern's overthrow. £, i2 aS^^SS"* • effort elnce 1961, particularly with the crettXn efU.% J?*"!*,? this the Liberation of South 1Utatt« to T * L *f W^"* Front for national support for the GoSlst^eTtiS; ""* "** *» g3i * fet «*- " SECRET/NOJ'CHrr I. ^ J* *- i l - Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ft p 1 • SEC3ET/ H0F0RH - 9 - As reflected by Radio Hanoi which ilso relays KPLSV statements, the paramount Viet Cong propaganda theme is the dictatorial family rule imposed by the Diem government and its subservience to *JS "foreign imperialist intervention" which are combining to "oppress" and "murder" the South Vietnamese people and block reunification. This Viet Cong propaganda campaign, coupled with recent political developments in Laos (which some Communist propaganda has implied provides an acceptable model for "settlement" of the South Vietnamese conflict) and with Diam's persistent reluctance to tolerate any appreciable non-Communist opposition, has already contributed to an increase in neutralist sentiment among urban circles* Moreover, some oppositionists, including a few leaders- of the once-powerful Cap Dai and Hoa Hao religious sects, are reportedly coopera- ting with the Vict Cong to the point of being committed to participating in an eventual Communist -led anti-Diem coup attempt. Viet Cong capabilities for leading a successful coup are limited, however. Its own forces, even if combined with any remnant armed bands of the Cao Dai and Hoa Kao religious sects, do not appear strong enough to overthrow the government by military means. Nor is there any evidence that the Viet Cong has any support in the. middle or top levels of the GVIJ bureaucracy or its military and security establishments. Although the Viet Cong might well be able to exploit the confusion and instability resulting from Diem's overthrow, it does not yet have the ties with the non-Communist opposition to Diem that would enable it to lead a successful coup. There is no reliable evidence of Viet Cong penetration of the middle or top echelons of the GVN bureaucracy and defense establishment. There is believed to be penetration of the lower echelons, and it is clear that the GVK security and intelligence services do not now have the capability to prevent such penetration, A GVN police interrogation report in early 1962 revealed that there was a large Viet Cong subversive network in the Saigon post office and that an employee of the post office was possibly using the telegraphic system for clandestine communication with North Vietnam* ■ : The Viet Cong has also progressively improved its terrorist capability in Saigon and other urban centers. There have been increasing reports that the Viet Cong has enlarged its terrorist corps in Saigon and that the principal targets of these attacks are to be Americans, Evidence of this capability is the increasing number of grenade bombings in Saigon* For example, there were three bombing incidents against Americans in May 1962 and three bombing incidents in connection with Independence Day celebrations on October 26, 1962- v secret/mofoern SCO Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 • . • * ■ SSCRET/KOFORN - 10 - tt THE VJSTJIAH GOWRK-ffiMT'S C QggSBgtSTEtGBRCr E flftStT A* Backgrounds Gradual^eogonsa «MH In contrast to the ra^ld acceleration of the CoKsmnist insurgent and subversive effort, the GVN response antil this year vas gradual and relatively uncoordinated and generally did not reflect the sense of peneral kolementat ion began. Moreover, the GVH leadership continued *o view the situation as one created and supported largely by external forces with Uttlo popular appeal arid saw their problem as essentially a military one requiring overriding emphasis on purely military measures. ■ ' Even these military J3eama?e8j however, rare weakened principally by the GTO leadership^ reluctance .to .abandon static defonso concepts and permit mare offensive actions, for which it had suff ioiont forces -« a reluctance that reflected both fear of overt ElV aggression and interna! political considerations. In addition, the GVN military and security ■forces themselves, despite their experience in combatting guerrillas during the Indochina l*ar and thereafter, wore inadequately trained, equipped, and organized to wage a sustained and large-scale counter guerrilla effort. "The turning period in the GVN response occurred in late 1961 mid early 1962 and resulted largely from substantially Increased US aid, persistent up reconaisiaa3i&j.uja», missions to South Vietnam* Accordingly the GVN has diversified its response by giving increasing emphasis to political counter insurgency measures . It has improved the coordination of these raeasures with purely militsiy operations, given priority to implementing a basic strategic concept for eliminating the insurgents, significantly increased the counter- guerrilla tactical capability of its military and security services, ar'3 departed appreciably frcia static defense concepts, thereby greatly aid: jg the development of increasingly offensive-minded and aggressive military and security forces. By the early part of 1962, the GVN had begun to act upon the recognition that the crisis situation in South Vietnam was an internal and political problem, requiring largely political measures tu eliminate Consmaist appeal, support, and control among the peasants. **• Foraulation and Implementation of Basic Strategic Concept JJ5 a result of persistent DS reporEtendations, the GVN has developed a basic strategic concept for the inplomentat ion of its diverse canhter- insurgoncy measures. The teo principal features of this concept are' the ■ strategic harslet program and a closely Integrated and coordinated military- political approach directed toward isolating £he Viet Cong and regaining control of the countryside on a systematic, area-by-area ffaSis* • SBCRBT/IXFORN Oh '• Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 If I » ' ' ^ "" " secret/noforn - 11 - 1, Strategic Hamlet Program , The strategic hamlet program embodies principally the recommendations of the British Advisory Mission, headed by R.G.K. Thompson, a key figure in the campaign against Communist insur- gency in Malaya. It also reflects US innovations and the experience and concepts developed by the GVN in similar earlier projects. Briefly, the program involves regrouping hamlets into fortified and more readily defendable settlements and undertaking in these settlements political, social, and economic measures designed to weed out Viet Cong agents and sympathizers, reestablish and improve local government administration, improve the general popular image of the GVN, and increase the peasantry's identification with the government's fight against the Viet Cong. The program is initiated in relatively secure areas and is then expanded into less secure areas. The majority of the hamlets provide most of their ovm resources, although the US is supplying some of the equipment and necessary construction materials and it is expected that this aid will increase substantially. The strategic hamlet program is now priority national policy. President Diem has created a special interministerial committee to implement and coordinate the program on a countrywide basis. The committee is headed by Diem's brother, Ngo Dinh Nhu, and delegates its responsibilities to regional committees under each of the army division commanders. Increas- ing efforts have been made to regularize the procedure for implementing the program, educate the responsible local officials and the peasants on pro- cedures and objectives, speed up the distribution of US material assistance, and train the necessary specialized personnel. The GVN has reported that, as of mid-October 1962, more than 3*000 strategic hamlets had been completed and more than another 2,000 were under construction; more than one-half of these are in the southern provinces, including the Mekong River delta area. The completed strategic hamlets vary widely in the quality of their physical defenses, the effectiveness of the defense, internal security, , and administrative systems, and the degree to which necessary political, social, and economic measures have been implemented. Among the most effec- tively organized hamlets are those in areas where integrated and systematic military-political pacification operations have been undertaken, such as "Operation Sunrise 11 in Binh Duong province and "Operation Sea Swallow" in Phu Yen province. In these and other hamlets, fortifications and the defense forces are adequate for repulsing guerrilla attacks, radio communica- tion has been provided, hamlet administrative officials have been elected or selected by the inhabitants rather than appointed by the village or di ;rict chiefs, and Civic Action teams have been active in improving the healtn, educational, and general living standards of the people. In many other hamlets, however, fortifications are extremely inadequate or virtually non- existent, defense forces axe greatly under- strength and Inadequately armed, there are no radio comrauni cat Ions or Civic Action teams, and hamlet officials continue to be appointed. Moreover, despite improving peasant morale in many ham- lets, particularly as the benefits of security against Viet .Cong intimidation and 502 £ *- "w - — ' *«/ >4 ilJ v ) J. 1 J • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 —r SECEKT/N0FORK 12 - taxation becone evidoi^ thorc are continuing reports that GV1J Officials have exactod too heavily from local resources and havo not coitpsnsated tho peasants for tho mterial end labor required to build tho haialots, that tho peasant's ability to earn a living has declined because of tho time ha is required to spend on construction, and tliat tho government has boon rcora concerned irlth controlling tho h^ilet population than with pro- viding services &nd improving living conditions* # It is still too csrly for accurate o valuation of tho strategic hamlet program. On balance, the program appears successful and probably has contributed to tho reported slight increase in tho number of persons and villages that havo coma tinder effective government control. The fact that tho strategic htoalsts have become a major targot for Viet Cong armed attacks is in itself an indicator of the importance of tho program to the GVJJ's counter insurgoncy effort, if not a measure of its success. Most of the . deficiencies of the strategic harlot program appear to be the result of implementation and, to some extent, are to bo expected during th3 early stages. J&ny province! and district chiofs continue to be rolatively unln- formed or confused as to procedure and objectives or are overzoalous in their attempt to impress their superior 1*3 and thus havo established unrealistfe ' eluding President Diem and E*o Dinh goals, Moreover, soma GVK leaders, including President Diem and Ego Dinh Kin, tend to place exaggerated importance on tho program, Viewing it almost a* continuing defense of tho strategic hamlets doe3 not exist in many of the areas *fcej?a they havo boon established. ter Ion and considerable delay: VS oxf icials, the GVN has developed the general outlines of an Integra sd military-political approach for pacifying tho country on a systematic, gradual aid province-by-proviiice basis. The approach involves large-scale and con- truing Military operations to dear and hold a given province. As thV EJi"? * ST 4 fra^Sio hamlets are established with Civic 40U1 j teams for the pacification of 11 pSfSSi *«5STwSf 25 £ 5? i if^S 6 «.♦• area and embodying most o/the *JLE2££?S fi kJMS&S'" ^ cation. 7 Priority areas for purposes of pacific SEGRET/MOFORN :■ - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECKET/N0FOIN % - Implementation of the integrated pacification approach boge>n in March 1$>62, and since then four operations have boon initiated s "Operation Sunrise" in Binh Duong provinca (and portions of surround iiig provinces) 9 ^Operation Saa Swallovr 3 in Phu Yen provixoo^ R 0pGraticn Let's Go*- 3 in Binh DLnh .province i and IJ Operation Royal Phoenix 1 * in Qusng Ngai province * HLans for another operation in Vixih Long province <, "Operation West VJind'^ 11 ! - are being cbfactai up* In addition to continuing military operation^ over 160 strategic hamlets^ the great majority in Phu Yen province^ have already- been constructed and more than an additional 1 5 000 hamlets are plumed for completion by mid-1963 or shortly thereafter* The results of tho systematic^ integrated SiSlltsa?y=pt5lttleal pacifica- tion approach are encouraging* However ^ its limited apx^lication to relatively feir provinces has not yet appreciably altered the balance bet- rasa the govern- asnt and the Viet Cong in the countryside Moreover $ thare is evidence that the GTO has some doubt as to tho feasibility of this apprc&oh as the princip:!. basis of its counter insurgency offer to For ©xaiq>lo, in addition to th s 1 v.:n- y reliance on tho strategic hamlet program, thero are reports that President Dica fools that his military forces now have sufficient strength and capa- bility to make quick, large-scale military strikes si taneouiOy in and behind various areas of Viet Cong concentration with tho hope of dispersing an3 ultimately isolating tho guorrilla forces into small and easily eliminated packets. C* MJlttavy Operations and Effect ivoness *— — — - fe^ha - - . ■!■ ^mm i ' _— m tma -» — a -a I i i ■— ■ ■ — i — »■ ■ ■ — — — _ ■ — _ - _. . ■^■f i~tt~itm «~it^«— ^p *mm*t\ ■ mm i^.nni Tho GTO military and security forces have significantly stepped up thoir offensive operations against the Viet Cong insurgents, particularly since the early part of 1962, In large measure, this has been the direct rosult of US agreement to support a substantial increase in the s*ze of ■ ( the GV» military and security establishments. Since the latter part of 1961, tee GVN has increased its military forces from about 160,000 to around 200,000 and its security forces, tec Civil Guard and Self Bjfense .Corps from just over 90,000 to almost 155,000, This has enabled th* W to satisiy its requirements for defending transportation facilities and what . it considers key areas, including tee l?th parallel, vhils it attempts to seek out and eliminate the Viet Gong. During the period October %£t for example the GVii military and security forces Lunchea 19 lar-^llfenslve operations, involving units vith equivalent strengths ranging from 4o battalions to several regiments, in addition to Sail-unit off eSiw actions and defensive engagements. ^ 1W aoraons strategy end plans. In close eooieratlcn wits iR^i-fr ""J 1 ™* «*• division colanders and th.li subo^ es^ro U £%£%«'> 0W ingly m formating and executing offensive mLSo^gS^ * uig mcreas- igairat the Viet Co SECRET/li0FC?cN 5C«fi * Declassified per Executive Order 13^26, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 / r • secret/noforn " - ak - However* it appears that Diem«s willingness to delegate this respens ibility is due partly to his appointment of division commanders whom he believes to be loyal to him snd his family. This reliance essentially en colonels to direct the fighting reinforces continuing reports that Diem and Ngo Dinh Ehu still mistrust most of the generals and even have doubts as to their military competence. In any event, Diem axid Ilhu continue to plsy ' dominant roles in the development of general military strategy and must approve pleas for major operations end frequently Mill initiate or modify them. As a result o? the substantial increase in U3 military assistance and accelerated training programs by US military personnel in South VietaKcn, uho now number almost 11,000, the GVIf military and security forces have covmter guerrilla vrar-faroc They are now alibus h ing and patrolling mors than over before arc engaging tho Viet Cong Increasingly in small unit a^tion'j^ and are following through tfoeia? attacks in order to keep the Vict Cong from diseiigaging * Probably of greater iiaportance^ hotiavor^ is the considerably * improved 1 ical mobility of the GVII forces* - These forces are now able "to strike more quickly and in greater strength than ever before during defensive^ relief $ or offensive operations * The single most important reason for this accelerated tactical mobility is tho increasing utilisation cf air p&mr $ principally US helicopter support* Although better intelligence and coTraunications, particularly the installation of radios in moat villages, and improvements in the tactical organization of the GVN military establishing have also contributed significantly* * The Improvement in GTO tactical intelligence is due partly to admin- inisirative and organisational reforms but principally to the success of US officials in impressing theSo.Uth Vietnamese with the necessity for more effective Interrogation of Vist Cong prisoners and to the apparent inorsssa in the willingness of the peasants $ at least In aroa-s >;here security- has insxroved^ to Inform on the Viet Cong, On balance ^ however, G¥K intelligence ^or^el, „ _ . 'risibilities aaong several agenciea and Interagency rivalries, and the continuing reluc- tance of the peasantry to inform on the Viet Cong for fear of reprisal particularly in insecure areas or where the GVN wmmv** *«= ***»*<«*«>* J terapor ary." here the GVH presence is regarded as Doapite this improvement in counter guerrilla tactics, GVH mUitafrv forces continue to rely more on large operations or clearing s^e^ than or MlHttit action*, employ CiviT.Gasrd and Self Ifefenae Corps unS ex£ a ! eiveiy xn ^dependent offensive missions, and, during large operation* deploy combat units, particularly artillery and airforco, accord^ to' convention! Ustieal ssthoda. As a result, the Civil Guard and ifilf Jftfense Ce*ps are incurring heavy casualties and Viet Cong guerrillas * SEGIE?/?, T 0FCRN r- r% r- t Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 A* Bscl:!>-5>6e Critic lea of Diem increased substantially throughout I aH sectors of Vietnamese society but was more urgently articulated within ; the government and bureaucracy, including the armed forces, A wide range of civilian and military officials, including Vice President Nguyen Ngoc • Tho and other members of the cabinet, privately questioned Diem ! s handling / of the internal security problem and his ability to rally and lead the people against the Viet Cong during what they regarded as the most critical period since tho end of the Indochina war. Their concern with tho Commurlst threat, however, was almost inseparably entwined with an accumulation of grievances principally ever DIem*s failure to delegate responsibility, the excessive power exercised by Blem* s family, and the use of secret security services and semicovert political. organisations to scrutinise the attltu s of the bureaucracy,, since 1956, and to a lesser extent among labor and business elements. They repeatedly and, on occasion, vociferously demanded that Diem liberalize and reform his govcrnmant, lift restrictions on civil liberties, eliminate corruption in government, and permit an opposition to operate. These demands SEGRST/NOFCRN cno v U w I SEGR2T/H0F0RN - 1$ - generally have advance knowledge of major GVN operations, especially then artillery or air power is used to "soften up" tho enemy, and are able to disperse or avoid engagement, Tne increased US seaport and presence, the greater role played by GVN military officials In formulating and directing military operations and more accesses, against the Viet Cong .than ever before have -PP^ntly taoved morale among members of the middle and upper echelons of the GVN military establishment. The state of morale at the lower level, hoover, is more difficult to determine. Desert ions, particularly among recruits and recalled reservists, appear to be running very high for a vide variety of reasons, and some GVN officials continue to claim serious difficulty m meetln* conscriotion quotas, During the first seven months of 1962, for example, a total of 17,28? personnel were dropped from the rosoers of the Army, Navy, Airforce, Civil Guard, and Self Defense Corps as deserters or as personnel absent without official leave. On the other hand, some GVN officials have recontly claimed that voluntary candidates have for the first time oversubscribed tho quota at the army officer's training school at Thu Due, * III, TEE POLITICAL SITUATION Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 . SBGBST/KOFORN - X6 - were supported, as in the past, by a disparate group of anti-Diem Vietnamese expatriates in Paris v?ho have long advocated Diem 1 s removal. Unrest also increased among the peasantry principally because of the government's inability to assure adequate protection from the Viet Cong but partly because of the cumulative react ion to the excessively arbitrary and severe behavior of local security and administrative officials. Possibly underlying this unrest also was the character of the GVH 1 s economic development activities which, however limited, were oriented mora toward de% r eloping an urban industrial base than toward improving the economic lot of the ppasantt Vietnamese confidence in the Diem government was obviously seriously shaken and morale within the bureaucracy, particularly the military estab- lishment, declined greatly* In Ibvember i960 a small group of middle level paratroop officers staged a near-sxiccessful coup in Saigon, Although the abortive coup obviously made Diem take serious stock of the prospects for political survival, it also strengthened his confidence in the correctness of his political views and increased his suspicion of many of his subordi- nates and the oppositionists outside tha government. During this period also, Diem's view of US policies toward Sowbh Vietnam underwent considerable change • For the f irst tine since he consoli- dated his position, Diem appeared to question seriously US political support of his leadership and US commitments to defond South Vietnam from Communist encroachment, His apparent concern, although partly reflecting his disagree- ment with US actions in Laos, was duo largely to earlier persistent US rep- resentations on "internal issues which he regarded as pressing him unduly ! to reform and liberalise his regime. This concern was further aggravated by his belief, partly instilled by members of his family, that the US was in some way involved in the abortive coup, * During tha Immediate post-coup period, Diom took a number of measures to strengthen his controls over tha bureaucracy. Ho and Wgo Dinh Nhu made it publicly and privately clear that future coup attempts or even public I ' criticism of the government would be dealt with severely. The Can Lao the government's semicovert political control organization, and"~tao~Secr e t police were ordered to maintain close surveillance over critics within the bureaucracy and the military establishment and over the oppositionists outside the government, and officials were apparently instructed tint passing information to or even having social relations with Americans would ftl\ f J iou V° ns ^nces. As a result, there was a sharp decline in the heretofore large number of reports on coup plotting and criticism of couo S^l Un * 7 ° S thS 7?**"* m ™ ^te^organSed a^Ser, T* P t£ S'-.fr* ""J 5 ^ St l0ySl memb0rs of th9 V™ l^.the bureaucracy ^nd tte military and security services. Ostensibly tol^ss the IS Sth tJ.i'n ^ mSnQ3S ^ r6l ° rra thS *"•"■«*. he later reorganized 'his £b£t • * * SSCRSiyi-OFOHN « • 507 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 N 17 During the last half of 196l 5 'the political situation became some- what less disturbed despite the continuing rapid deterioration of security conditions o The predominant factor in this development vas external: : . \ .strong US public manifestations of support for Dieia, including the visits of. Vice President Johnson and General Maxwell Taylor, and the substantial Increase in US assistance to South Vietnam* Other contributing factors wero the slightly greater participation that Diem now appeared to permit his military advisers in the conduct of the fighting, the f avorable psychological effect on the middle and lower military echelons of a few large offensive operations^ and Diem f s initiation of some modest political reforms, However, there vras no conclusive reversal of deteriorating trends as was made clearly evident when Diem ? s palace was bombed by two GVd air force pilots in February 1962, ( B« The Current Situation r • ■ .. • The political situation in South Vietnam is now probably more complex and more difficult to analyze than at any time since 19$h. On tho one hand, ■ the sense that political reform is urgently needed appears to have subsided* significantly, at least onr the surface, and indeed a relative calm seems again to have descended over the biu'eaucracy,- There has b3en a significant decline in reports of serious discontent, and of criticism by GVN officials of Diem's leadership and his family. Reports of the concern of officials with inefficiency, corruption, and morale in the government have likewise declined significantly since the early part of 1?62, as have reports on ■ °°? P lot ^ S*™ us officials believe that morale within the bureaucracy and the military services has improved appreciably, largely because of tho improved capabilities of the armed forces and several large successful operations against the Viet Ccngj that some heretofore strong oppositionists - are now seeking to identify themselves with the government a^d con?ribu?e positively zo the war effort} and that peasant loyalty is shifting toward ^he. government, particularly in areas where the government is making its presence increasingly felt, Finally, Diem and his principal lieutenant* have very recently shorn considerable confidence and optSism tS the ,' tide has been turned against the Viet Cong and have evrn «,t«L?*h T general offensive is about to be launched! ^ at a I in,t,M?? t tbe ° tJ ? er Jr*' ^ lndicatoi ' s of serious internal political instability remain, however diminished in apparent ln*.™ «+£ * JOX ^ iCaJ - varied as the indicators of political stabSitv Vw ^ ""l" 6 * S officials from various level's of the aaminlsWinn •" f !*»£*■ £r ™ Tho and Generals Daong Van Kinh and Le Van kZ III ™ clu6m Z Vice Resident toe war- himself or Sough htf Lnner c JcL i? fSfT Contimiss to run Within the government ceS^ 8 ^4S%1^^£ that CCr ^ion lottery scandal that there is no politic^! lortlt*- T^ miT ll f*5 ° f "*■***? *& in the countryside is forc^nTo^To^ttU ^criminate bombing Cong, and that coup plottingV^tf aS onlTS SZTZSf ~ SECRET/tfOFORN ou3 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3,3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRKT/lfO?'ORN - 18 - exploitation and the belief that the US would not tolerate a coup keep it from materializing. As recently as late October 1?62, Gen, Ton That Dinh, commander of Army Corps II and generally considered one of the most loyal although opportunistic of Diem's generals, stated that he was highly dissatisfied with the regime, that Diem and Nhu tolerate corruption in high places, and that he was planning to precipitate a coup in early February 1$>63« 1, Political Attitudes^ of Dlgff L JH?*1 .J^JLJ^^Xl Dlcm and h3 - s £ ?jn} -ly remain firstly convinced of the wisdom of tholr political outlook and of their method of governing their country, They are basically impatient tath democratic processes • They consider democracy a useful goal but its methods thsy regard as wasteful and as dangerous to political stability and public safety in a country such as South Vietnam* They contend there- fore that the Vietnamese people, with their national survival at stake, must submit to a collective discipline until they develop a greater national consciousness and a batter sense of civic responsibility. While willing to rule within the framework of constitutional and representative government, they are firm In their- convictions that government is effective and dynamic only when its power is closely held and exercised by a small, highly dedicated, and uncompromising element at the very top through a machinery founded more on persona], relationships and loyalty than on formal or institutional chains of command. Where representative government and civil liberties come in conflict with the highly centralized authority, the latter generally prevails, Finally, Diem and his family continue to believe strongly, almost fanatically, that their leadership is crucial if not indispensable to the survival of their country in the present crisis. Some slight modifications have slowly appeared in these attitudes during the past year, partly because Diem and his family are increasingly aware that the Communist threat to South Vietnam is largely internal ° and partly because of the magnitude and complexity of the US assistance ) program and its increasing orientation toward the needs of the countryside. >bre than ever before, they have been made aware that government nust not only be .served but must also serve, that the peasant and his active particip?- J tion rather than his passive obedience may well be crucial for final victory over the Viet Cong, and that a little more sharing of pover at the top would probably improve administrative efficiency rather than lead to their ouster. At the same time, however, Diem and especially Nhu have gone to great lengths to convince U3 officials that this ha/al^ys been ?he£ peasant, Km has repeatedly stated that the strategic hamlet pro-i-m for ex^nple, will create a social, economic, and poUtlc^reTOl^^ *L l«el, and raise the peasant to a new social status. There is no evidence, ., , secret/koforn - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 'SECRET/lJOFORH ■ - 19 - * however , either in recent developments or Id the records of past perform- ance, particularly Ilhu's, that such are "their real objectives and ex- po o tat Ions o - Probably the most significant change is in Diera's attitude toward the US* Kb has apparently become substantially persuaded that IS defense cosniltments to South Vietnam are firm, despite his continued disagreement vrith the IB on the Laotian problem. His earlier suspicions that the OS was looking for a successor in South Vietnam and that tho IS was implicated in the abortive I960 coup have been considerably relieved. On the other hand, Diem has remained firm against any US pressure on matters that ho interprets as vital to his oirn raid his government's best interests and is . convinced that in the final analysis he can have absolute confidence only in himself and in his family. 2. 2^9^ n ^^t^S^2^^i:SC a ^ cra r ro ^^ly has somewhat strengthened his control" of the adiiijustoatfon. For example, ho has reorganised a number of his agoncios, has removed a number of critical and potentiality disloyal officials and by various means neutralised tho influence of coma others, such as V5.ce President Tho and Gen, Duong Van Minh, and has improved his means of surveillance of tho bureaucracy through such techniques as the creation in the military establishment of a, system of "political commissars" known as the Political Welfare Division* He has attempted to roinforco further his control of the military establishment by the appointment of personally loyal colonels as division commanders, some of whom have Vernon- strated from time to time that thoy regard their responsibility as principally to Diem rather than to their corps compandors. On balance, however, it appears that tho general efficiency of the administration has improved slightly, partly because of tha appointment of ©ore competent officials to several key positions, partly because of soma increase in the authority delegated by Diem, and partly because of the enlarged IS presence in South Vietnam* For exaa£Le, Secretary of State for the Presidency Kguyon Dinh Tfauan appears to be oxcrcio*n* greater authority than before, as is Secretary of State for Inter ior°Bui van Luon* wio, like xhe head of th* now Central Intelligence Organization, Col. Nguyen Van Y, and Secretary of State for Riblic Health Iran Dinh Do is among trie nov/ly-appointod and more competent members of Diem's entoira^e in Saigon, At Dlem's initiative, the National Assembly recently p*s-ed 3i22*! , *w J^^-*"***-*"^ W to call v£on **&.*£%*.. cabinet to give testimony on pending legislation, i ■are selective in hi? appointment 3 ^^^'SaSirSi^SL " •t this level of the goverr^nt, some of these officials havo^so SoT^a SECRET/KOFOR?! • . . ' • { OJ.0 I Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET/K0FORN i i -20- so^Hhat greater vHltngP.3. to ^ -JJ^LTta'SSl'SStaS'- >att»r rtta* to throve orr f^Uof Bd ^ i"d™ i.ntciais.nco, and planning *d ^^?**J2fS^«n g3.4-.tor consultation and coordina- S^a^JSiTSS^™ tne rotation and implantation of policies. ■ ■* iwarfhnless participation by the cental elements of the adminis- Nevertheless g^JJJJJ^^/,^ direction of policies, as well as tration In Satgen in the ff^JJJ*' d fr0IP lts mid dlo and lower initiativo *»d construe ?^^^ y *~£ ^ his fanU y continue echelons •J* l ™ttTSSS^ ^SmSS of personal relationships to operate ^ 6^^"* J^g-^ foma channels of comand, They havo rather than through th r ^ ! l to teoadw govornmont participation ^nSlor^^^ ^aferfSd htg£y sensftive to the possibly Satthe rolfof U3 advisers in the field or at the middle and lower echelons S^radXistration may weaken their authority outside Saigon. 3 iottc- Dlem's Position in the Countrywide. Diem has never had widespread noouiar S "aSH poFt, even during "his period of greatest achievement. ?2tt-53 An austere and disciplined introvert, he is incapable of demagog, uerv ana has never made a great effort — to the extent that Erix§e Sihanouk of Cambodia and Ho Chi Hlnh of North Vietnam, for example, ha™ done so — to inspire among the South Vietnamese people a national con noss centered and moulded around him personally. While he has enacted measures that have helped the peasants, he has not attempted to identify himself intimately with the peasants. Relatively few peasants havo ever seen Diem or heard hm speak, and there are probably many others who are not aware that he is head of the government. For the great majority of naasants the district chief is probably the highest government official thero has been any notable degree of contact. ty of peasants, with whom Diem undoubtedly has become increasingly < re of the serio\JS need to improve the public inage of himself, his family, and his government* He now travels extensively in the countryside, and his manner of talking with the peasant has become more relaxed and sympathetic than bef orej during the last half of 1961, for example, Diem made 18 known trips outside Saigon and visited 19 provinces, 9 in the central and northern parts of the country and 10 in the south. Both Diem and Nhu have from time to time attended the inauguration of rolativoly small rural projects. Vlith US assistance, the GVN is expanding its information and Civic Action programs at the village level and has become more conscious of the need to conduct these activities along lines understood and appreciated by the peasant. Finally, there are reports that a number of the villages and hamlets ■which have been given arms have resisted the Viet Cong, instead of sur- rendering their weapons as some GVN officials had expected they would do. SECRET/130FGRN ■• G I 1 V* •—. -.*, Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 lit SEGRET/NOFOaN . . - 21 - There soonis to ha some fooling among GVH and US officials operating at tho local level that the popular appeal of and support for Blew and his govermsent in the coi jsldc is li^prcrring, partictOsrly In areas where security haw improved snd the govsrraanVa poorer is imreasing* Ifcwever, thoy i7arn against any n&fitie optimism, particularly since they believe social and economic advances &re still no 4 ", keeping pace vith military successes^ and that the positive identification of tho peasantry with the goveranent is stSl3 a long war ofx* While over a 100.000 Montapnard or mountain trifcespeople have fled Wet Cong-cont3?o31ed areas aac! are being temporarily housed and fed by the G7K, their flight apparently was due principally to Viet Cong excesses and tha general intensification of the fighting in the highlands rather i&aa to any positive snaasnres taken by the GVB to appeal to the trlbespeople. She extensive use' of artillery and aerial bombard™ itisnt and other apparently excessive and Indiscriminate ffie&snros by GVN military and gscurltgr Itoees in attenuating to eliminate tita Vict Cong have tmdaubtedly killed man;/ innaeezat peasants and made many others teore irilling than before to cooperate with tho Viet Cong, pgBpticrilaarly in areas vhere the gowacment has conducted extensive military operations* but has failed to follow up by providing the means .for poriaanent socueilgr* ; * lj. ffl affig. Pfr affiioa tn Tffban t Center e « "Bitem's legitiraa^r ae South Vietnam's S^SS^L leader may be, at best, a vagus and tap arson xl concept . in the countryside. It is seriously questioned, hotzever, ^:ong r^j:y elements of the urban society, principally gmong professionals, intellectuals and formsr politicians in Saigon. \fis in the resent past, this questioning largely continues to t tho form of dissent and private criticise rather than openly organised exposition* Within this educated s$d politically sensitive sector of the Vietnamese society, there in a wi'ds Yarieiy of political sentiaents. Including varying degrees of -Vietnar^o nationalise, neutralism, coaswnism, pro-IB and anti-US, and^pro«Ffceineh and anti-Ereneh 5he coition thamea among: these critics and active opponents of Diem continue to be related to his sv m and manner of rule. Repeats of opes critieisa and opposition to fiiesi among th3 Salgin civilian slits, already on ths decline by early 1961, havo decreased further during this year, littla has been heard, for exsB§jflLe, of Er. Bisu Quang IXmfs Republican Party of Vietnam (Dan himself has been in prisaa since the 1i3 g neutralist sentiment among then and, by forcing many of them under cover, have made it extremely difficult to estimate tholr real strength and disruptive potential, In addition to tho growing appeal of neutralism araong Hiera, thoir pro -US orientation nay also be rapidly declining. IV. EC0K0HIC TR3HBS ! \ There has been little inflationary pressure in Soutie Vietnam as yet. Prices have been stable and tho money sitpply has been nearly constant for over a year. For example, in August 1962, "total raoney supply, made up of demand deposits in the banks and currency in circulation, vzs only fraction- ally above vihat it had boon in March 1961* Further, prices havo been generally stabl^ and tho cost of living in tho cities has risen only very slowly. Tho stability in rconay supply and prices that has boon such a marked feature of tho Vietnamese economy has baen the diroct result of vary con- servative .15711 policies with respect to prices, wages, and fiscal management, So long as the immediate problem In, South Vietnam was reconstruction, lee., tho restoration of production to pro-World $&r II lovels, it was possible to obtain substantial iner oases in output at relatively small cost, and conservative price-Sage and fiscal policies Mere not only useful but also to some extent necessary • * Although GVH policies have been more conservative in nature than was really required (for example, budget swpluses from l&k to 1959 amounted to a total of 2.7 billion i>i^sto^s) they have kept the spseter of inflation from adding yet another element of Instability to the scene.. * •. , SECAST/1X)?GRN • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECHEi/JX)?a:>r trt 23 Shice the rscesistruction phase ended In about 1959* Cf7N economic * policy hay preserved tha status quo In the eotmtays ida$ including the* traditional- disparl% osteon rttP&I sad xnrban living standard^ and has pot stiEvulatad oec Lc dtfrdopsuHit, Thero g3?e soma indications, in fact^ feat ihore has recently been not disinvestpat hi agriculture, ' Given tha security situation in tfc* CQ®£facysIdc and tho current depressed state of tr&da there- j rovised policies directed tttrsrd increasing rural income and production would' be an essential element in p^suadtqg tha peasants to cast th$fip lot with tho govor- nt alld &ot with tha Viet Cong. Two GSicowagiBg dw&lop kts have occurred in the economic field in South Vicing In the last BOTaral JMnthSq Flrstp tha Second Five -Year Plan >ras endorsed by- tho Kkticnal /.: :£rn.bly SLa Jbsm Wi approved by Resident Diem* Tm Plan calls Tor t&e te ^ 'of U5 billion piasters over the period 1962-1966 &ed ©ssphssisas tho d©ysloj5ma»$ of agrienlturo, public im I ^.&nd J* ista^Ta On 3 30 ihs Jfeilc 1 Am&ably appropriated an irdiiai 1*2 blllloea p tutors to finaiic-a the piaster costs of several pro J[dct0$ii3&fi0 of thca in the "hgriociltural sector Second^ IVoildcnt Siem, Nations b uiao p. „ — „ „ „„ ^^vwMgsu *-iam i-'iv(u;-j« w*« *' from making needs arising from 2LT25SL to 5»»t of its rubber replanting 2g2 ^J^SSSSSSSi 5 Restates, there is little prospect gr^r^ov^oat in the rubber situation until security improves goner ally. It can also-ho ejected that Viet Cong harassment will continue to totJtor?^ to* transport system, especially tho railroads. Eha r,:! "* irrhfc oassengcr operations between Saigon and Hue on SS2^#«2£55 JUi on any improvement to security but Sept^sDer i> vas ^ ^ "sabotage trains carrying passengers. on toe ^f.^.f.t.ie also been due to the fact that additional revenues art SS£ ^^JTcFS. 10 Billion P iastor aontaly deficit on railway operations. If President Diem' s statements on October 1 are followed by the necessary measures to stimulate development of the agricunural sector in South Vietnam, which accounts for the employment of 80* of tto population, important steps will have boon taken not only to provide the peasantry ' with the motivation to side with the government but also to diroco economic , ' development along tha lines most promising for tho economic tuturo of Soxxth Vietnam, This will be particularly tho case if the GVN's economic devel opmonfc program also emphasizes industries utilizing domestically , produced raw materiels, particularly agricultural ones, as well as those that provide import substitutes but are based solely on imported raw mater iris. ■ * In short, the G7N is showing a new arcarenass of tho necessity of direcii&g its attention to programs which will directly benefit tho rural population. It has not as yet put into effect any concrete measures to carry out its prcgrau Its actions in tha next six months to a year will indicate how deep its new-found conviction iff. V* OUTLOOK At foromunist Actions ■ There sean^ littlo prospect that tha Viet Cong will be able to achieve a take-over of South Vietnam by armed force during tho next year* The Communists ara obviously prepared for a long struggle . Even though the strengthened GVH response and increased US assistance have apparently necessitated sorao modification of plans, it is not likely that the Cormnmists will diminish their diversified campaign of guerrilla warfare, f terrorism, and subversion* They can be expected to make every effort to maintain, consolidate, and expand .their control of tha coitvtrvaidoj increase their overall armed strength, the number of organised fighting i . units,* and tha percentage of hard-coro personnel in these units; improve their weapons capability particularly against helicopters; 'and increase Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . SSCRKT/KOfmii - 25 - their attaofcs against strategic har.ilsts. Acts of terror is% particularly against '&r.or leans, and sabotage* par ticuZUrly of trains and li^ortant installations, may veil increase to unprecedented proper t ions in an effort to tie doim more GW military and seciarity forces and thus relieve the pressia:e against the Viet Con; C Hanoi can also be expected to continue to infiltrate personnel and raterial into South Vietnam r.nd has the capability to stop up infiltration, as the situation warrants^ vith relatively little danger of detection and no great difficulty. The W8*S capability is further enha&cad by the nature of the border terrain and the limited border- control capabilities of the South Vietnamese, Lao, and Cambodian gG\'ernmenta 4 H^we^er^ because of tactics! and strategic military end political considerations s Hanoi Kill probably continue to infiltrate elements primarily from the pool of regrouped South Vietnamese rather than from the Vietnamese Communist forces in Laos aoffi Of vjhom are believed to be North Viettta&3£3 or ToDkinese, ■ It is entirely possible that the Viet Cong v?DJ. step up its armed operations daring the next month or so with the advent of the dry season, in the belief that further military escalation is necessary in order to counter the growing response and effectiveness of the GV3J forces and U3 support. There are a number of indicators that support this ej^asctationj noserous earlier intelligence reports of Viet Gong" ragro^jpisant £ con- solidation of forces; a slight increase in the ntnaber of armed incidents during roughly the last week of October; and two Viet Gong battalion-size attacks in the Mekong River delta area in late October and early Hbvemher 1962, the first since July 1962. Farther military escalation daring the next several months night involve the formation of regimental-siae units, including the transformation of some guerrilla units into conventional units with heavier weapons^ selected and simultaneous large attacks aeainst oneor more targets, including military installations and towns; establish- ment of "liberated areas" in South Vietnam) the ersailoa of ress-va baZZT in Communist-held areas in southern Laos; end UwrtS* l3l5£^ particularly if Coamunist forces in southern tS S pl^StdeqSte protection along infiltration routes. (It does not ajWlLelv SSt inspection by the International Control Commission in ilos JSlLSSLlt Politica^aStSindl 5£52**5JK '&*&*?«* ^ ■ *VI1 make incr easod^f f or ts to ££*«£ tie St ^^ ?* Vlet *>«* ^d security units, recoup its psyXJogicS S^FS***? "? *** ' «* m general suhvert the GVtfs effort^ l^£^J&*&; SECRET/KOFOJtH ) ± o Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 i tlf ssgrst/koforn ~ 26 - * * In urban areas, the Viet Cong wiH rely on terrorism, to Serialize the Xtilenry^ on increased propaganda end subversion to Umpire anti- SeW SnSrations and coup plots, encourage neutralist sentiment end oppositionists and youth and labor grougS« Outside South Vietnam, Hanoi will probably increr.se its diplomatic and propaganda effort, to gain support particularly among neutr^ nations for S «|ational Front for the Liberation of South Jftetnaja* (SFXS7). It aa7havt sons success in establishing "unofficial" relations between the Wm and Laotian and Cambodian leaders, in gaining support for the KPLSV amon* Vietnamese minorities in Lacs, Csmbodia, 1 and Thailand, and in persuadin" prominent Vietnamese eapatrtatea in France to suppor & a change of government in South Vietnam. In addition to advocating the reunification of Vietr i sooi and the WLSV can be expected to continue nronagaada support for the neutralisation of South Vietnam, Knraver, tne extent to which neutralisation is emphasised will depend on the course of the war in South Vietnam and the degree to which the concept is found to . appeal to the elements in and cuts ids South Vietnam, as well as on develoj • Bents in the Bloc itself* The pattern of events relating to the creation end devalopmairt of * the Wi&V? as wall as tho pattern of CosmBunist political tactiea pad strategy in similar situations in other comtrtes in tho par>t^^ indicates that Hanoi and tho Viet Cons are preparing the groundwork for tra imtox nation of the HB1S7 into a shadow or t? libc-u ?ation govocmonV 3 In South Vietnam* However, it is exfee emely difficult to predict when, tihatfcer.j or uadsr ^aat conditions this Kill occur* Hanoi might find it politically r.dv^ntjgGous to create c shadow government •under any one of the following circi vtr^ieoss during a period of internal political crisis in South Vietnam following a successful or near-successful, coup atteraptj during a period when there has been a series of i:ujor and drastic Viet COMg military scccegsesj during r> period of serious military cr diplomatic' reverses for the US in the Par Bsstj or at r- t^une >:hen several neutralist countries had given assistances of diplomatic recognition of a new "government* 3 in South TTietsam* Oader any clrcuisstancss, however, the decision voiud be considerably influenced by Moscow sad Fsiping raid their estimate of the general international situation* B* QV1I Counter insurgency Effort The elimination and even ths significant reduction of the ©sasaialst insurgency in South Vietnam will almost certainly require several years, Bswever, in addition to continuing IS assistance, a considerably greater effort by tha G¥B is crucial. Jxi effective strategic military apolitical concept for impleaentlng tho GTO counter insurgency plan has been developed and is now boing acted upon, and the armed and security forces have been enlarged and inprored. GY1J success will in large aeaswe depend on t^a manner and speed with which it continues to irroler^at this concept. $1- XatET/KOFCRN c;i 7 1/7 ;•. • _ *? Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 - 27 ~ Ultimately, ho ^jr 5 t&e effectiveness o? Its iraplcir . it&tion will depend on the idllingnees of III era and his family to utilise fully the basic resources available to the G7N. Ihe GVN military leaders are anong the bpst in Sbs&east JUia sad the rank and file have the spirit &nd villiog^ ness to fight; ths 'civilian bureaucratic leadaarsjiip is strongly anti- (bnasainistj e^eia though its effectiveness continues to ba iiapeded by Inadequate delegation of autfcrltyj there are as yet no serious trends toward neutaLi3m or toward a political accomodation vith Hanoij sr-d finally, the ITletnaaiese pess&ntSj however politically apathetic and discontented tdth tke government, are by no means re^dy to surrender thesiselves to the Viet Ocmg, given greater effort by the govarn^nt to protect then £rom C nratst Intimidation said ircprovo their economic end political status* Daring the mx& yo:r- 5 the OW probably mil not be able to halt completely the deteriorating security trends , let alone reverse the tide against the Viot Cong, unless Saigon significantly accelerates and improve its response to the inirorgency. itaong other things, the govern nfc leader- ship !•;. give much greater e-uphasis to political, social, end economic measures in i, orb of its: military op pitions, make a substantially greater offo 1 3 end capabilities, including increased reliance on r... .Il~un5.t actions read restriction of 1 t ^tical use of airpcrfer and artillery,, Rjilure to do this will seriously- 1 ' : n the -strategic hamlet program* partioularly since the Viet Cong eon bo expected to stop up it* effori against the program during the next year. Such failure will also greatly restrict th particularly sssoisg the peasfchts a the needed greater sense of stake Jn &e gpvermmt's fortunes. Indeed, the continuation of such taction ae&sures as extensive use of airpo»er and crop destruction, however carefully controlled Kay veil contribute to ike development of militant opposition a , tfce ' peasants end positive identification with the Viet Co: o -l2. Progress egiinst the insurgents will probably remain diff ievi t to evaluate accurately. There are many indicators on the br.sis of Weh Peeress can be jud^d} the more meaningful would aopear to be t^re"^i- Jftrt Gong attacks, and Viet Cbng mapons leasee, shortages of food and J»f"ine, and defections. In this respect, a national program by X ' CTH to encourage Viet Cong defections, with the promise of fSrLeaLent of the defectors is long overdue and could be eaSreaslv °?f~^v?Z SrafeJ? 1 2!£*~! -* •-«* Viet c^^i;; 10 ^ t S on casualties, while helpful a3 an toSite afSi ^^inl^de of "firfflSi should continue to be treated with extreme eauti^ JSES v ^f I1ST: ' oiil g* undoubtedly iijclude masv c-nl ,> ^^ V • p U/ boc ^° *^ .. supportor/of the Viet Cong': " ^^ P 8 ^^* 8 W «««««« * " ■ * SEG^J^/jVOFOJlir K1 P, Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 1 - 28 - C, The U3 Role Ths cotffse of US-GYN relations Kill bo an Important element in the a- end assistance is th-3 controlling factor in Gf?H relations and attitudes toward tho U3» Daspit© considerable improvement in relations between the IB and the GVH during the past year or so 5 disagreements end frnstr tiono can bo expected to continue over a number of issues, including the Im*leB»niation of tho counter insurgency plan and GVH relations with Laps and Car&odia, Blein trill elrcosfc certainly continue to press for increased aid and remain adamant against a^y OS pressures upon him to delogato appreciably mora authority to his cabinet and military advisors or to expand tho political base of his government to any sign If icc.nt c oefcent. Ebroovor, Khlle ho has Kalcoroad tho increased VS presence in South Vietnam and generally approved of tho activities of IB advisers in tho countryside, MLcra and hi* f ciaily Kill continue to maintain & close Kateh over those activities in tho interests of protecting their an thor iiy . at tho local level. Diem and. particularly Ehu may also reiaain oxtrcrnaly rpluctant to accept possible " U3 proposers directed i d further intonation of tho strategic haraiot and systematic pacification programs or directed toicvrd substantially altering tho present balance between esaphasis on puroly miliary measure; to defeat tho Viot Cong and emphasis on political, social, and economic measures • .s ■ i - Dion probably still has soma lingering suspicion of the extent of confidence in and support of his leadership. In -the event of another coup atterapt, Dion rould o^pect qnipk and strong manifestations of U3 support and Kould regard tho absence of SttcJi manifestations as demonstra- ting lack of VS confidence. lie SChere is considerable evidence that tho substantia increase in u5 presence in South fietnam has improved morale at all lords of tho G administration. Eolations between individual US advisers and tbeir ffis coimtcrp^ts especially at the local level have generally boon good and ctoGpi.o Vxot Cong propaganda efforts, have not resulted in any neticeab j ^ong th 8 probable m$ox considerations are tho fact that IS pdotmJ? «aite the French Ln tho past, are acting as advisors rather lm a7 ' afrr^* P&MU&W of an policy, and tho apparent wUlli-ness tomt^parts, assisting i-oro hy example rathw than by persuasion sa ^j^xs:^ ^s^st^sl ■* . SEGBBT/KOFCRH £1 in Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3,3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 : SSCR3T/K0F0RN n 29 a D« Politic*! Situation The fit-ability of the go' nmsttt during tka next year will continue to dapand principally on Diem* is fa&i&lfig of the internal security fiituatioru If Diem can demonstrate a continuing Inprcvamont -In security conditions^ ha should ba able to ^Deviate concern and boost rcor^le idthiii bis bureaucracy and military es&^lsbss&t, Bomvw, if tba figtyt against tho Viet Cong goes badly* if tha Viet Cong launches a scries of successful and' dramatic military operational or if South Viobnaaoso ansy casualties imr«ssa appreciably over a promoted period^ tha cfcsacas of & coup attempt against Biain could ineraasa atfestantially« Moreover, tha possibility of a conp attempt at a^y tfoaa cannot bo ©xctwlsda Ifesy "officials and oppositionists fool that^ despite tho govern -> & e military victor iss and improved military cay Abilities aad ihitiattvaj tha GVIT ia not winning tha ttar principally basalt a of Dlom-3 virtiml cir-.: i rula and his failure to follow through with tho political and .jsS&aomio m nacosssry to gain tha support of tho peasant? OS l^o It is moro difficult now than at zmj tint* sinco tho crisis in South Vietnam bagaii in lata X9>9 "to eattaata raXiably tho dopants that wraOLd bo Btost likely to praoipitata a co^p atteeot 5 tha prospects for tho auocesa of a coup attempt, or tho effects of such an attempt on intomal stability and on tha coimtarkisixrgoney effort itself 9 frying tha past year 02 so* tho Viet Gong presumably has improved its ability to initiate a ootzp and ■kigfat attarapt to do so, Bbi*aver s the Viet Goi2g probably i;ould not ba abl3 to oarsy out £ successful Gotsp 3 £>n& tho odds that it could gain co&teoi of a soccassftil coup, although somanfaat bettor than last y©ar s appear to ba less than ovon. Hid coup most likely to succeed vould be ©na vith non-Ccauiaualet tha govaassmaat* 32ha aborfciva coup attempt in Kbveaab&r i960 &v>d tho f uuw " "» »«^«aaitv 1 y x«i- oowap praxmmian and broader poa?tieixstloa ' tha Silltsry. Any f urburo iKja-CesBEniai^t ec-ap grot® probably would Sot b» as deficient to this reqpet and its laadara, uallfca tha leaders o?19& coup aaans certain,' a major polarization of tha G71J military loadvriifn * M +. coup gad anti-coup groups doos not appear likely **"™M» into ?*? f Dl; T, ol °?* *° ^""a 1 ? weeraiited at tela outsat m giv.3 their tacit or active coup od anti-coup groups doos not appear likely. Most of ««» ^ald apparently did in fcn** lc£o, J vouWtS"* ** "^ "^ ^ *** SECRm/BQF-QRX t~ r\ *-\ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . SSCRET/KOFORN 30 o» Dlora's removal — i&&thar by a military coup^ assassination, or death tram ^ecidsntal or natural esusos -- vould probably considerably strengthen tho potto? of tho military* Tho odds apponr about evan bctueon a govcrrjn&nt loci by a military jEata or by Vico President Tho, with tho erffijr^ in tho latter cassij playing a major If not tho predominant rolo behind tho scenzs* On tho o:io hand, tfaa military might conciiido that a milita3*3r-l©d government vonld bo bettor abla to laalntaln national unity and iatfearaal political cohesion &n& s more importantly, to conduct a doterminod and effective campaign against the Viot Cong* On tho other hand^ they night eoncl\ui? thnt 23io, i^ho apparently has boon on good terms with soma of ths present top military loaders, K>nld not disagree with their vio^s on tho maimer of conducting tho fight against tho CoTfLr^nists and that his constitutional succssaioaa iroDld legalize the change in goveriBaant and possibly avert a sorious povror struggle, (Although Biota 1 s brothors^ Em and Can 5 viould probably also bo removed by a coup > If Blsm loft tho scone for other reasons his brothers Bight attempt to retain roal politic?! power*) In any ovont, a govornmsnt led by tha military, by Tho, or by any* other civilian approved by tho military ■•Jould probably maintain South Viotna^s pro-CS orientation* ■ If there is a sorious disruption of govor;: iaant leadership as a result of a military coup or as a result of Dicm's death, aiy ncaiantiOB fail IXndsr most of tho foreseeable circumstances involving a coup tho rolo of tho 05 would bo extremely torpor t ant. Although this"is by no means certain, US military raid intelligence officials might well have advance notice of an kapeading coup and might bo able to restrain tha eovo plotters from precipitous action. Evon if unable to restrain .such action hoover, tB officials night have greater success in averting widespread *rt£S 21!, * i0 2 ET* f^TS* l hiCh wuld lo * d to ^ccssivo blood- shea and weaken the front, against tho Viet Cong. She US could -l^n h* helpful to achieving agreement aaong the coup loader's as to ^olLu^d h^d * SECfST/l-0?0RN •1 ny Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ' i ' /« ■ ■ RECEIVED ■ SECRET CONTROLLED DISSEM N1E 53-63 17 April 1963 •i * 1964 FEB 15 11 07 CFf SECY OF DEFENSE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER 53-63 ■ • • (Supersedes NIE 14.3/53-61) HO m Kz^iy u tit! l&mGm Submitted by the DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Concurred in by the UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD ■ As indicated over /a of 17 APRIL 1963 4 • „ i f % 5* i ! *r * .•*%«*»* 3 i » * : . « , , *"*• t i-' *-v «"% ^ *i **^ /O" . -*• «*** * *», . — • "'-" .• — .r~r~ :, , . !"*"> CONTROLLED DIS8EM Wi % . w »*** •— or ScoDef Control Mo,_£\ << J - / / \* . The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff # - ^ SUBJECT: Laos Planning ' • ' « V ' -fV. • i 1. At a meeting on June 19, 1963 the President considered the Memorandum addressed to him from the Department of State dated June 17, 1963 ("Memorandum"). ' •-.-:•-, 2. The President approved Phase 1 of the plan outlined in the Memo- randurn and authorized that the steps outlined therein might be taken at such time and in such manner as the appropriate officials concerned might direct. * l \^ J ■ 3- The President directed the Department of State to consult with the L/ . 4 French and British before initiating any action under the Memorandum. - He wished to obtain their suggestions for action in Laos in light of the deteriorating situation there. ■ * , 4. The President approved Phase 2 of the Memorandum for planning purposes, but directed that none of the steps outlined in Phase 2 be ",\ ' put into final execution until after further consultation with him. * • ■5. The President directed that the steps described in Phase 3 of the Memorandum be further refined and reviewed; and he asked that the question be explored whether additional U. S. actions should be taken in Laos before any actior^be directed against North Vietnam", . ,* Carl Kays en ; Copies furnished: Governor Karriman ' General McKee . *•' " Mr. Colby General Clay- { V ■% . ■ '. TOPS2CRS1 • • *"" ^ C Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 /& *: .*;Hilsman:mk S3 & S 07 jo • This (foeumeat consisls cf T0PSSCE5T nrj ±s_± ^ Copies, Ssriss DEPARTMENT OF STATE Spft (T!"?3 i ; C" S£:y Cr ffiF0JSg I SU3JZCT: /Aemorcsnd'jm of Conversation FOR THE RECORD Q Situation in South Viet- Nam 3 . July 4, IS}/ TIME : 11 : uO to 11 : 50 a. ra, . PLACE: The White House PARTICIPANTS: COPIES TO: The President Mr, BaU Mr. Earriman Mr. MeGeorge Bandy Mr. Hilsmaa . Mr, Forres tal I 1 . ■ i — - • - ■ — k The President was briefed on developments in Indonesia, Laos and ^ Viet- Nam. The portion en Viet- Nam follows: ■ A joint agreement was signed on June 18 in which the Government nut the Buddhists 4 five demands. The Buddhists and the Government then worked together on the funeral arrangements for the bonze who burned himself to death so that incidents could be avoided. The funeral came off without trouble. > Since then there have been rumors circulating in Saigon that the Govern- ment does not intend to live uj to the agreement. These rumors were given credence by an article appearing in the English language "Times' 1 of Viet-K&m, which is dominated by the JEflxoa. The article contained a veiled attack on the US and on the Buddhists. There v/as a suggestion that file Monk who burned himself, to death was dragged and a provocative challenge to the Buddhists that, if no further demonstrations occurred on July 2, this would amount to an admission oj the Buddhists that they were satisfied with the Governments - action, {The President injected questions on the possibility of drugging, to which ^H Mr. Hilsman replied that religious fervor v/as an adequate explanation. ) At this point there was a discussion of the possibility of retting rid of ^ the Nhus in which the combined judgment v/as that it would not be possible, A /A* ■ V IT DS-125-UT) ^ 9 *» TO? SECRET \&> •> SEC D&2 $ coki m*J\Z-i3J£sl w .^. ~* C* 01)31 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ 127 ■ i TCP SECRET -2- ■ - - Continuing the briefing, Mr. Hilsman said that the Buddhists contained an activist element which undoubtedly favored increasing demands as v/oll as charging the Government with dragging its feet. There was thus an element of truth In Diera's view that the Buddhists might push their demands so far as to make his fall inevitable. During these events the US had put extremely heavy pressure on Diem to take political actions. Most recently we had' urged Diem to make a speech which w-^uld include announcements that he intended to meet with Buddhist leaders, permit Buddhist chaplains In the army and so on. If Diem did not make such a speech and there were further demonstrations, the US could be compelled publicly to disassociate itself from the GVIVs Buddhist policy. Mr. Hilsman reported that Diem had received this approach with what seemed to be excessive politeness but had said he would consider maldno such a speech. ■ * Dor estimate was that no matter what Diem did there will be coup attempts over the next four months. Whether or not any of these attempts will be successful Is impossible to say. * Mr. Hilsman said that everyone agreed that the chances of chaos in the wake of a coup are considerably less than they were a year ago. An encouraging sign, relative to this point is that the war between the Vietnamese forces and the Viet Cong has been pursued throughout the Buddhist crisis without noticeable let-up. At this point lar, Forrestal reported on General Krulak's views that, - even if there were chaos in Saigon, the military units in the field would continue- to confront the Communists, Mr. Hilsman went on to say that Ambassador Inciting believes that foe most likely result of a coup attempt that succeeded in killing Diem was civil war. Mr. Hilsman disagreed with tills view slightly in that he thought civil war wag not the most likely result but that it was certainly a possible result. The timing of Ambassador Kolting's return and Ambassador Lodge's assumption of duty was then discussed. The Presidents initial view was that .. Ambassador Bolting should return immediately and that Ambassador Lccre should assume his duties as soon thereafter as possible. The President volunteered that Ambassador Molting had done an outstanding job, that it was almost miraculous the way he had succeeded in turning the war around from the L TOP SECRET 17 Ik-classified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 ST * ( * P r - Li • .* TOP SECRET :■•"•. • -s- .* . ;.... disastrously lovr point la relations between Diem and ourselves that existed v/hen Ambassador Kolting took: over, Mr, Hilsmaii pointed out the personal sacrifices that Ambassador Halting had been forced to make during this period, and the President said that he hoped a way could be found to commend Ambassador Halting publicly so as to snake clear the fine job he had done and that he hoped an appropriate position could be found for him in Washington so that he could gStre his children a suitable home in the years immediately ahead. ~ :• The President's decision was to delegate the authority to decide on the timing of Ambassador Koltin-j's return to the Assistant Secretary for Far Eastern Affairs; that Ambassador Ledge should report to Washington no later , than July 15 so that he could take the Coimterinsurgency Course simultaneously with the normal briefings for an ambassador; and that Ambassador Lcclce should arrive in Saigon as soon as possible following completion of the CI Course on August 14. Arrangements v/ere made for Ambassador Holting to see the President at 4:00 p.m. on I.loaday, July 8. • ' ••' I f I •TOP SECRET I f r» I Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 m ! ! ' SECRET CONTROLLED DISSEM CASE FILE' COPY niAQT-l RETURN TO DIAbC-l SNIE 53-2-63 10 July 1963 . SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER 53-2-63 I . ( L li ti SOS ,-\ o.j3 134 Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 * > • SECRET % i I GVJNTs initial handling of the issue gave the US ground for serious em- barrassment and concern which, in turn, produced a succession of force- ful US demarches. The Diem family has bitterly resented these US actions and may well feel that the Buddhist protests were at least in- directly due to the US presence. Under the circumstances, further pres- sure to reduce that presence is likely. I 12. A key role in this regard will be played by Diem's brother, Ngo dinli Nhu. He has always been Diem's chief political lieutenant, but the years since 1954 have witnessed a steady accretion of Nhu's personal power and authority — an accretion due partly to circumstance and primarily to deliberate effort on Nhu's part. Nhu has political ambitions of his own and almost certainly envisages himself as his brother's suc- cessor. For a variety of reasons, Nhu has long privately viewed the -US with some hostility and suspicion. American criticism of the GVN has especially irritated Nhu, for he is aware that he and his wife are often its primary targets. Above all, Nhu almost certainly doubts whether the support which the US has given to his brother would be transferred to him. 13. In the negotiations with the Buddhists, Nhu urged his brother to take a firm line and is, by his own statement, wholly out of sympathy with the concessions made. On the basis of past performance, \vc think it unlikely that he will help to implement the settlement; his influence on- Diem will be rather in the direction of delaying and hedging on commitments, a tendency to which Diem himself is already disposed. This will be the more likely since not only the Nhus and Diem, but also his brothers Archbishop Thuc and Ngo dinh Can, the political boss of the central provinces, obviously continue to doubt the legitimacy of Buddhist complaints and to underestimate the intensity of the crisis. IV. THE OUTLOOK 14. If the Diem government moves effectively to fulfil its 16 June commitments, much of the resentment aroused by the Buddhist con- troversy could be allayed. However, even if relations between the GVN and the Buddhists are smoothed over, the general discontent with the Diem regime which the crisis has exacerbated and brought to the fore is likely to persist. Further, if — as is probable — the regime is dilatory, inept, and insincere in handling Buddhist matters, there will probably be renewed demonstrations, and South Vietnam will probably remain in a state of domestic political tension. Under these circumstances, the chances of a non-Communist assassination or coup attempt against Diem will be better than even. We cannot exclude the possibility of an attempted Communist coup, but a Communist attempt will have appreciably less likelihood of success so long as the majority of the 'government's opponents and critics remain— as they are now — alert to the Communist peril. SECRET i . *- 1 fi o >-j v< Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 1 3b ' L - SECRET ■ m 9 15. The chances of a non-Communist coup — and of its success — would become greater in the event renewed GVN/Buddhist confrontation should lead to large-scale demonstrations in Saigon. More or less prolonged riot and general disorder would probably result— -v.ith the security forces confused over which side to support. Under such circumstances, a small group, particularly one with prior contingency plans for such an eventuality, might prove able to topple the government. Conversely, a continued or resumed truce between the GVN and the Buddhists would serve to reduce the likelihood of such an overthrow. • 16. Any attempt to remove Diem will almost certainly be directed against Nhu as well, but should Nhu survive Diem, we are virtually certain that he would attempt to gain power — in the first instance prob- ably by manipulating the constitutional machinery. We do not believe that Nhu's bid would succeed, despite the personal political base he has sought to build through the Republican Youth (of which he is the. overt, uniformed head), the strategic hamlet program (whose directing Inter- ministerial Committee he chairs), and in the army. He and his wife have become too much the living symbols of all that is disliked in the present regime for Nhu's personal political power to long outlive his brother. There might be a struggle with no little violence, but enough of the army would almost certainly move to take charge of the situation, either rallying behind the constitutional successor to install Vice Presi- dent Tho or backing another non-Communist civil leader or a military junta. 17. A non-Communist successor regime might prove no more effective than Diem in fighting the Viet Cong; indeed at least initially it might well prove considerably less effective, and the counterinsurgency effort would probably be temporarily disrupted. However, there is a reason- ably large pool of under-utilized but experienced and trained manpower not only within the military and civilian sectors of the present govern- ment but also, to some extent, outside. These elements, given continued support from the US, could provide reasonably effective leadership for the government and the war effort. 6 ** SECRET *"■ H r? o 3 5 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 Hi : W k~a „_»< . __^ j Vi^iS ouMoItivL STATE 2^3 STATE TO LODGE BEF: CAS 265 - TAB E State 316, 320 & 329 TAB B It is now clear that whether military proposed martial law or whether Nhu tricked them into it, Nhu took advantage of its imposition to smash pagodas with police and Tung's Special Forces loyal to him, thus placing onus on military in eyes of world and Vietnamese people. Also clear that Nhu has maneuvered himself into commanding position. US Government cannot tolerate situation in "which power lies in Nhu T s hands. Diem must be given chance to rid himself of Nhu and his coterie and replace them with best military and political personalities available* If, in spite of all of your efforts, Diem remains obdurate and refuses, then we must face the possibility that Diem himself cannot be preserved. We now believe immediate action must be taken to prevent Nhu from consolidating his position further. Therefore, unless you in consultation with Harkins perceive overriding objections you are authorized to proceed along following lines: (1) First, we must press on appropriate levels of GVN following line: (a) USG cannot accept actions against Buddhists taken by Nhu and his collaborators under cover martial law. (b) Prompt dramatic actions redress situation must be taken, including repeal of decree 10, release of arrested monks, nuns , etc . (2) We must at same time also tell key military leaders that US would find it impossible to continue support GVN militarily and economically unless above steps are taken immediately which we recognize requires removal of Nhus from the scene. We wish give Diem reasonable opportunity to remove Nhus, but if he remains obdurate, then we are prepared to accept the obvious implication that we can no longer support Diem. You may also tell appropriate military commanders we will give them direct support in any interim period of breakdown central government mechanism. (3) We recognize the necessity of removing taint on military for pagoda raids and placing blame squarely on _Nhu. You are authorized to have such statements made in Saigon as you consider desirable to achieve this objective. We are prepared to take same line here and to have Voice of America make statement along lines contained in next numbered telegram whenever you give the word, preferably as soon as possible. Concurrently j with above, Ambassador and country team should urgently examine all possible alternative leadership and make detailed plans as to how we might bring about Diem's replacement if this should become necessary. ■ Assume you will consult with General Harkins re any precautions necessary protect American personnel during crisis period. You will understand that we cannot from Washington give you detailed instructions as to how this operation should proceed, but you will also know we will back you to the hilt on actions you take to achieve our objectives. £ "N — % -=»5.-» . , 536 c *- - N it O s J ; Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 633 J 6. By: NWD Date: 201 131 r ,-^ ._ M . -..— , ■ U JO -t - -— : i 4 ns> i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ^ ^ „ ? — , ... J' »i ^ — • - - J - J V i« 9. General Taylor asked what Kattenburg meant when he said that we would be forced out of Vietnam within six months. Kattenburg re- plied that in from six months to a year, as the people see we are losing the war, they will gradually go to the other side and we will be obliged to leave. Ambassador Nolting expressed general disagreement with Mr. Kattenburg* He said that the unfavorable activity which motivated Kattenburg r s remarks was confined to the city and, while city support of Diem is doubtless less now, it is not greatly so. He said that it is improper to overlook the fact that we have done a tremendous job toward winning the Vietnam war, working with this same imperfect, annoying government. 10. Mr. Kattenburg added that there is one new factor - the popula- tion, which was in high hopes of expelling the Nhus after the VOA announcement regarding cessation of aid; now, under the heel of Nhu's military repression, they would quickly lose heart. 11. Secretary Rusk commented that Kattenburg 1 s recital was largely speculative; that it would be far better for us to start on the firm basis of two things - that we will not pull out of Vietnam until the war is won, and that we will not run a coup. Mr. McHamara expressed agreement with this view. 12; Mr. Rusk then said that we should present questions to Lodge which fall within these parameters. He added that he believes we have good proof that we have been winning the war, particularly the contrast between the first six months of 1962 and the first six months of 1963. He then asked the Vice President if he had any contribution to make. 13. The Vice President stated that he agreed with Secretary Rusk's conclusions completely; that he had great reservations himself with respect to a coup, particularly so because he had never really seen a* genuine alternative to Diem. He stated that from both a practical and a political viewpoint, it would be a disaster to pull out; that we should stop playing cops and robbers and get back to talking straight to the GVN, and that we should once again go about winning the war. He I stated that after our communications with them are genuinely reestab lished, it may be necessary for someone to talk rough to them - perhaps General Taylor. He said further that he had been greatly • impressed with Ambassador Nolting's views and agreed with Mr. McNamara's conclusions. 5^3 'T" < J ■ — .- ■ "— * • t T~* Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 m w-> v»v — s #*s «— » r* — v — ; —a r> -.-*• ^N, -** f\ **^ <*"" — -. —J -T| - vl [Or ;r 14. General Taylor raised the question of whether we should change the disposition of the forces which had been set in motion as a result of the crisis. It was agreed that there should be no change in the existing disposition for the time being. V. H. KRULAK Major General, USMC i . 5kk jpft?* fvojanr c vie Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3?> NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 20 1 I 5 . ..--. ...._ CT U I I t if Li CAP 63516 (EEF: Saigon 523 - TAB B) • • MUTE HOUSE TO LODGE 17 September 1963 n 1. Highest level meeting today has approved broad outline of an action proposals program designed to obtain from GVN, if possible , reforms and changes in personnel necessary to maintain support of Vietnamese and US opinion in war 1 against Viet Cong. This cable reports this program and our thinking for I your comment before a final decision. Your comment requested soonest, 2. We see no good opportunity for action to remove present government in immediate future; therefore fl as your most recent messages suggest, we must * 5^5 r - lilt/!" Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 J 6. By: NWD Date: 201 JVC 1 for the present apply such pressures as are available to secure whatever modest improvements on the scene may be possible. We think it likely that such improvements can make a difference, at least in the short run. Such a course* moreover, is consistent with more drastic effort as and when means become available, and we will be in touch on other channels on this problem. 3* We share view in your 5^3 that best available reinforcement to your bargaining position in this interim period is clear evidence that all U.S. assistance is granted only on your say-so. Separate telegram discusses details of this problem, but in this message we specifically authorize you to apply any controls you think helpful for this purpose. You are authorized to delay any delivery of supplies or transfer of funds by any agency until you are satisfied that delivery is in U.S. interest, bearing in mind that it is not our current policy to cut off aid, entirely. In other words, we share your view that it will be helpful for GVN to understand that your personal approval is a necessary part of ail U.S. assistance. We think it may be particularly desirable for you to use this authority in limiting or rerouting any and all forms of assistance and support which now go to or through Whu or individuals like Tung who are associated with him. This authorization specifically includes aid actions currently held in abeyance and you are authorized to set those in train or hold them up further in your discretion. We leave entirely in your hands decisions on the degree of privacy or publicity you wish to give to this process. k. Subject to your comment and amendment our own list of possible helpful action by government runs as follows in approximate order of importance: A. Clear the air — Diem should get everyone back to work and get them to focus on winning the war. He should be broadminded and compassionate in his attitude toward those who have, for understandable reasons , found it difficult under recent circumstances fully to support him. A real spirit of reconciliation could work wonders on the people he leads; a punitive, harsh or autocratic attitude could only lead to further resistance. B. Buddhists and students — Let them out and leave them unmolested. This more than anything else would demonstrate the return of a better day and the refocusing on the main job at hand, the war. C. Press; The press should be allowed full latitude of expression. Diem will be criticized, but leniency and cooperation with the i domestic and foreign press at this time would bring praise for his leadership in due course- While tendentious reporting is irritating, suppression of news leads to much more serious trouble. D. Secret and combat police — Confine its role to operations against the VC and abandon operations against non-Communist opposition groups thereby indicating clearly that a period of reconciliation and political stability has returned. E. Cabinet changes to inject new untainted blood, remove targets of popular discontent. F. Elections — These should be held, should be free, and should be widely observed. G. Assembly — Assembly should be convoked soon after the elections. The government should submit its policies to it and should receive its confidence. An assembly resolution would be most useful for external image purposes. H. Party — Can Lao party should not be covert or semi- covert but a broad association of supporters engaged in a common, winning cause. 5k6 - T > '-71 "J ^ . -J -I 01 n/i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 IH .^3 U I i. j. K. L. 5. a ; wis iiua I 1 Vl, This could perhaps be best accomplished by disbanding the party and starting afresh. Repeal or suitable amendment Decree 10. Rehabilitation by ARVN of pagodas. Establishment of Ministry of Religious Affairs. Liberation of passport issuances and currency restrictions enabling all to leave who wish to. Acceptance of Buddhist Inquiry Mission from World Federation to report true facts of situation to world. You may wish to add or subtract from the above list, but need to set , psychological tone and image is paramount. Diem has taken positive actions in past of greater or less scope than those listed, but they have had little practical political effect since they were carried out in such a way as to make them hollow or, even if real, unbelievable (e.g., martial law already nominally lifted, Assembly elections scheduled, and puppet bonzes established). 6. Specific "re forms" are apt to have little impact without dramatic, symbolic move which convinces Vietnamese that reforms are real. As practical matter we share your view that this can best be achieved by some visible reduction in influence of Nhus, who are symbol to disaffected of all that they dislike in GVN. This we think would require Nhus departure from Saigon and preferably Vietnam at least for extended vacation. We recognize the strong possibility that these and other pressures may not produce this result, but we are convinced that it is necessary to try. 7» In Washington, in this phase, we would plan to maintain a posture of disapproval of recent GTO actions, but we would not expect to make public our specific requests of Diem. Your comment on public aspects of this phase is particularly needed, 8.. We note your reluctance to continue dialogue with Diem until you have more to say, but we continue to believe that discussions with him are at a minimum an important source of intelligence and may conceivably be a means of exerting some persuasive effect even in his present state of mind. If you believe that full control of U.S. assistance provides you with means of resuming dialogue, we hope you will do so. We ourselves can see much virtue in effort to reason even with an unreasonable man when he is on a collision course. We repeat, however, that this is a matter for your judgment. 9. Meanwhile, there is increasing concern here with strictly military aspects of the problem, both in terms of actual progress of operations and of need to make effective case with Congress for continued prosecution of the effort. To meet these needs, President has decided to send Secretary of Defense and General Taylor to Vietnam, arriving early next week. It will be emphasized here that it is a military mission and that all political decisions are being handled through you as President's Senior Representative. 10. We repeat that political program outlined above awaits your continent before final decision. President particularly emphasizes that it is fully open to your criticism and amendment. It is obviously an interim plan and further decisions may become necessary very soon. - J : *Ju sL. 5hl S ClVOij t Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 i ■- J •--- * * STATE U31 18 September I963 FROM THE PRESIDENT TO LODGE I appreciate your prompt comment and I quite understand the problem you see in visit of McNamara and Taylor. At the same time my need for this visit is very great indeed, and I believe we can work out an arrangement which takes care of your basic concerns. Will you let me have your comment on the following as soon as possible: 1. We can make it clear here, and McNamara and Taylor can make it clear in Saigon to the GVN, that this visit is not designed to bring comfort to Diem. My own thought is "that in any visit McNamara makes to Diem he will want to speak some home truths on the military consequences of the current difficulties , and also to make it clear that the United States Government is not open to oriental divisive tactics. 2. We can readily set up this visit as one which you and I have decided on together, or even one which is sent in response to your own concern about winning the war in the current situation. For example , we could announce that the purpose of the mission is to consider with you the practical ways and means of carrying out my announced policy that we will support activities which will further the war effort in South Vietnam and avoid supporting activities which do not. The whole cast of the visit will be that of military consultation with you on the execution of the policy which you and I have determined. 3. As our last message said, my own central concern in sending this mission is to make sure that my senior military advisors are equipped with a solid on- the-spot understanding of the situation, as a basis both for their participation in our councils here, and for the Administrations accounting to the Congress on this critically important contest with the Communists. Having grown up in an Ambassador's house, I am well trained in the importance of protecting the effectiveness of the man on-the-spot, and I want to handle this particular visit in a way which contributes to and does not detract from your own responsibilities. But in the tough weeks which I see ahead, I just do not see any substitute for the ammunition I will- get from an on-the-spot and authoritative military appraisal. k m I do not think I can delay announcement of the McNamara mission beyond Saturday, and I will be grateful for a further prompt comment on this message so that we can be firmly together on the best possible handling of the announce- ment and of the mission itself. 5^8 g ^ 1 w rs tott* - - « Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 nt T _ "* "* ! SAIGC:l 5U4 JO? SEBSI •# (Ref White House Msg CAP 63516 atchd at Wash Guidance TAB) FROM LODGE TO STATl FOH PRESIDENT 0'!LY 1 qsfp 1963 2 * ■> i . ■ i 1. Agre«2 that no good opportunity for' action to remove present government in irurediate future is apparent and that we should, therefore, t* - — * * » do whatever we can aj an interim measure pending, such an eventuality. 2 , Virtually all the topics under paragraph 4, letters A to M t have T " * •" ken up with Diem and' Nhu at one time or another, most of them by me *\V^ lly. They think that most of them would either involve destroying been-ta persona the political structure on which they rest or loss of face or both. We, therefore, could not realistically hope for more than lip service, Frankly, I see no opportunity at all for substantive changes. Detailed comments on items A to M are contained in separate telegram* 3, There are signs that Diem-Hhu are somewhat bothered by my silence. According to one well placed source, they are guessing and off-balance and ''desperately anxious" to know what U*5, posture is to be* They may be pre- paring seme kind of a public relations package, possibly to be opened after the elections. I believe that for me to press Diem onthings which are not in the cards and to repeat what we have said several times already would be a little shrill and would make us look weak, particularly in view of my talk with Mhu last night at a dinner where I had a golden opportunity to make the main points of your CAP 63bl6 as reported in 541 t 4, Also, I doubt that a public relations package will meet needs of situation which seems particularly grave to me, notably in the light of General Dig Minh's opinion expressed very privately yesterday that the Viet Cong are steadily gaining in strength; have more of the population on their side than has the GVU; that arrests are continuing and that the prisons are full; that more and more students are going over to the Viet Cong; that there is great graft and corruption in the Vietnamese administration of our aid; and that the "Heart of the Amy is not in the war". All this by Vietnamese Wo, 1 General is now echoed by Secretary of Defense Thuan (See my 542), who wants to leave the country. 5, As regards your paragraph 3 on withholding of aid, I still hope that I may be in formed of methods, as requested in my 478, September 11, which will enable vis to apply sanctions in a way which will really affect Diem and IJhu without precipitating an economic collapse and without impeding the war effort, VJe are studying this here and have not yet found a solution, If a way to do this were to be found, it would be one of the greatest dis- coveries since the enactment of the Marshall Plan in 1947 because, so far as I know, the C T ,S. hod never yet been able to control any of the very unsatis- factory governments through which we have had to work in our many very success- ful attempts to make these countries strong enough to stand alone, 6, I also believe that whatever sanctions we may discover should be directly tied to a promising coup d'etat and should not be applied without such a coup being in prospect, In this connection, I believe that we should pursue contact with Big Hinh and ur^e him along if he looks like acting, I particularly think thdt the idea of supporting a Vietnamese Army independent of the government should be energetically studied. ' - - Ik-classified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3,3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■JSl> * V r-»/"s (?>*■"***:■ • 1? SEES I ! 7, I will, of c cur- jo, give instructions that programs which one can be effectively held up should be held up and not released without ny approval provided that this can be done without serious harmful effect to the people and to the war effort. Technical assistance and (omission) support to communications support programs nay be one way* This would be a fly-speck in the present situation rind would have no immediate effect, but I hope that U.S. (omission) may get Vietnamese officials into the habit of asking me to release items which are held up and that, over a long period of time, it might create opportunities for us to get little things done, " 8, But it is not even within the realm of possibility that such a technique could lead then to do anything which causes loss of face or weakening of their political organization. In fact, to threaten them with suppression of aid might well defeat our purposes and might make a bad situation very much wcrse. 9. There should in any event be no publicity whatever about this pro- cedure, If it is possible (omission) a prcsjram, I intend to (omission). 10. As regards your paragraph 6 and "dramatic symbolic moves", I really do not think they could understand this even if Thao wanted to f al- though I have talked about it to Diem f and to Nhu last night (See my 541), They have scant comprehension of what it is to appeal to public opinion as they have really no Interest in any other opinion than their own. I have repeatedly brought up the question of Nhu's" departure and have stressed that if he would just stay away until after Christmas! it mi^ht help get the Appropriation Bill through. This seems like a small thing to us but to them it seems tremendous as they are quite sure that the Army would take over if he even stepped out of the country i 11. Your paragraph 8, ' I have, of course, no objection to seeing Diem at any time that it would be helpful. But I would rather let him sweat for awhile and not go to see him unless I have something really new to bring up, I would much prefer to wait until I find some part of the AID program to hold up in which he is interested and then have him ask me to come and see him. For example, last night's dinner which I suspect Nhu of stimulating is infinitely better than for me to take the Initiative for an appointment and to call at the office. Perhaps ny silence had something to do with it, * .550 i t •" TOP SSCR3T Declassified per Executive Order iw« c^ , -, NNDP,.„ je ,, Nl , mto:NND6 „;^ B ; : ;;:^™o„3, ^.. THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON' ■ * September 21, 1963 'MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE :& i ~i f ■ ■ ■', i ( 1 ■ I I . -I . f t * * * i • » •, .(. * • - • , * It may be useful to put on paper our under standing of the purpose of your visit to South Vietnam, I am asking you to go. because of my desire to have the best -oossible en -the- spot appraisal of the military and paramilitary effort to defeat the Vie.t Cong. The program developed alter General Taylor's mission and carried forward under your close supervision has brought heartening re suit s a at least until recently. The events in South Vietnam since May have now raised serious questions both about the present r>ro streets for success against the Viet Cone; jLnd still jnore about the future effectiveness of this si£QX% todies S thsre can be iAvpo^ilaht 'policial improvement in the country. It is in this context £ha* I now need your atroraisal of the situation. If the oro^nosis in your judgment is not hopeful, I would like your views on what action must be taken by the South Vietnamese Government and what stet>s our Government should take to lead the Vietnamese* to that action. Ambassador Lod^e has joined heartily in sua^wrting this mission and I will rely on you both for the closest exchange * of views. It is obvious that the overall political situation J 43 •*» T m * <• ■ fl* *-_%„ S^*^-* an«i me military ana paramilitary enor: are ciosery inter- connected in all sorts cf ways, and in executing your responsibility £03? appraisal of the military and paramilitary problem I expect" that you will consult fully with Ambassador Lod^e en related political and social Questions* I will also expect you to examine with Ambassador Lodge ways and means of fashioning all forms of our assistance to South Vietnam so that it will support our foreign policy objectives more precisely. * I am providing you separately with a letter from me to President Diem which Ambassador Lodge and you should discuss and which the Ambassador should deliver on the occasion of a call on President Diem if after discussion and reference to me I conclude that such a letter is desi'rabie. • * <■ - .*• ,- ■ * i t * < . * : , • * f ► « * TOP S3CB.3T 1 • . • " - m _ • " Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ ,0 • THE WMITlv IlOUSii WASHINGTON" TOP SECRET -2- • t * i t * ! • t I I ■* » 1 ; * I . "i r I t * ! 1 i In my judgment the question of the progress of the contest in South Vietnam is of the first importance and in executing 1 this mission you should take as much time as is necessary for a thorough examination both in Saigon and in the field. » .•* * * ••• . • « »s ■ - * I . • 1 John F. Kennedy m * <■ .t • * * ^ % • ^ . * - ■* , * .^ v- TOP S2CR3T •> ■» * •■* * • \j %J / Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 l£3 * STATE fcjS, 22 September I963 2Y23 OKLY FC3 AM;I\G3AD0R D3D02 *7£M BALL Understand dec ire for caudancc expressed your 577- Pending further ituation by President ;:hich ir5.ll follor your consultation reviev oi s vlth KcSemara and TayJLor vc vioh to 31 vc you following interim guidance: 1. The United States intends to continue its efforts to assist the Vietnamese people in their struggle against the Viet Cone* 2. Recent events have put in question the possibility of success in these efforts unless there en be important improvements in the government of South Vietnam. 1 r 3- It is the policy of the United States to bring about such improve- ments - Further specific Guidance on your meeting frith Diem being dcvclped here and will be subject further consultation with you. In any event the President believes object of this meeting should be to increase your authority and leverage with Diem goverjiment. In meantime CAP 63516 still represents Washington's current thinking on specifics- A possible Presidential letter to Diem is in preparation and will be forwarded for your comments before a decision on delivery. - * r- r* '"v ISH Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 I - ■ - ' - '< or i " r THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON 2 October I963 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT Subject: Report of McNamara-Taylor Mission to South Vietnam Your memorandum of 21 September 19&3 directed that General Taylor and Secretary McNamara proceed to South Vietnam to appraise the military and para-military effort to defeat the Viet Cong and to consider , in consultation with Ambassador Lodge, related political and social questions. You further directed that, if the prognosis in our judgment was not hope- ful , we should present our views of what action must be taken by the South Vietnam Government and what steps our Government should take to lead the Vietnamese to that action, , Accompanied by representatives of the State Department, CIA, and your Staff, we have conducted an intensive program of visits to key operational areas, supplemented by discussions with U.S. officials in all major U.S. Agencies as well as officials of the GVN and third countries. We have also discussed our findings in detail with Ambassador Lodge, and with General Harkins and Admiral Felt. The following report is concurred in by the Staff Members of the mission as individuals, subject to the exceptions noted. I. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. Conclusions. 1. The military campaign has made great progress and continues to progress. 2. There are serious political tensions in Saigon(and perhaps elsewhere in South Vietnam) where the Diem-Nhu government is becoming increasingly unpopular. 3» There is no solid evidence of the possibility of a successful coup, although assassination of Diem or Nhu is always a possibility. U. Although some, and perhaps an increasing number, of GVN military officers are becoming hostile to the government, they are more hostile to the Viet Cong than to the government and at least for the near future they will continue to perform their military duties. 5. Further repressive actions by Diem and Nhu could change the present favorable military trends. On the other hand, a return to more moderate methods of control and administration, unlikely though it may be, would substantially mitigate the political crisis. ssu « — > i v^u •-' . : 1 - r\t C Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 6- It is 'not clear that pressures exerted by the U.S. will move Diem and Nhu toward moderation. Indeed, pressures may increase their obduracy. But unless such pressures are exerted, they are almost certain to continue past patterns of behavior. B. Recommendations . We recommend that: 1. General Harkins review with Diem the military changes necessary to complete the military campaign in the Northern and Central areas (I, II, and III Corps) by the end of 195^ and in the Delta (IV Corps) by the end of 1965 . This review would consider the need for such changes as; a. A further shift of military emphasis and strength to the Delta (IV Corps). b. An increase in the military tempo in all corps areas, so that all combat troops are in the Field an average of 20 days out of 3Q an -d static missions are ended. c. Emphasis on "clear and hold operations" instead of terrain sweeps which have little permanent value* d* The expansion of personnel in combat units to full authorized strength . e. The training and arming of hamlet militia at an accelerated rate, especially in the Delta. f . A consolidation of the strategic hamlet program, especially in the Delta, and action to insure that future strategic hamlets are not built until they can be protected, and until civic action programs can be introduced. 2. A program be established to train Vietnamese so that Essential functions now performed by U.S. military personnel can be carried out by Vietnamese by the end of 1965- It should be possible to withdraw the bulk of U.S. personnel by that time. 3- In accordance with the program to train progressively Vietnamese to take over military functions, the Defense Department should announce in the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1Q63- This action should be explained in low key as an initial step in a long-term program to replace U.S. personnel with trained Vietnamese without impairment of the war effort h. The following actions be taken to impress upon Diem our disapproval of his political program. a. Continue to withhold commitment of funds in the commoc .cy import program, but avoid a formal announcement. The potential significance of the withholding of commitments for the 1964 military budget should be brought home to the top military officers in working level contacts between US0M and MACV and the Joint General Staff j up to now we have stated $95 million may *be used by the Vietnamese as a planning level for the commodity import program for 1964. Henceforth we could make clear that this is uncertain both because of lack of final appropriation action by the Congress and because of executive policy. I 555 — — rr - v • ;r Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 p*-f /at. b. Suspend approval of the pending AID loans for the Saigon- Cholon Waterworks and Saigon Electric Power Project. We should state clearly that we are doing so as a matter of policy. c. Advise Diem that MAP and CIA support for designated units, now under Colonel Tung's control (mostly held in or near the Saigon area for political reasons) will be cut off unless these units are promptly assigned to the full authority of the Joint General Staff and transferred to the field, d- Maintain the present purely "correct" relations with the top GVN, and specifically between the Ambassador and Diem. Contact between General Harkins and Diem and Defense Secretary Thuan on military matters should not, however, be suspended, as this remains an important channel of advice. USOM and USIA should also seek to maintain contacts where these are needed to push forward programs in support of the effort in the field, while taking care not to cut across the basic picture of U.S* disapproval and uncertainty of U.S. aid intentions. We should work with the Diem government but not support it.* As we pursue these courses of action, the situation must be closely watched to see what steps Diem is taking to reduce repressive practices and to improve the effectiveness of the military effort. We should set no fixed criteria, but recognize that we would have to decide in 2 - k months whether to move to more drastic action or try to carry on with Diem even if he had not taken significant steps. 5. At this time, no initiative should be taken to encourage actively a change in government. Our policy should be to seek urgently to identify and build contacts with an alternative leadership if and when it appears. 6. The following statement be approved as current U.S. policy toward South Vietnam and constitute the substance of the government position to be presented both in Congressional testimony and in public statements. a. The security of South Vietnam remains vital to United States security. For this reason, we adhere to the overriding objective of denying this country to Communism and of suppressing the Viet Cong insurgency as promptly as possible. (By suppressing the insurgency we mean reducing it to proportions manageable by the national security forces of the GVN, unassisted by the presence of U.S. military forces.) We believe the U.S. part of the task ! can be completed by the end of 1965* ^ he terminal date which we are taking as the time objective of our counterinsurgency programs, b. The military program in Vietnam has made progress and is sound in principle. c. The political situation in Vietnam remains deeply seri .-us. It has not yet significantly affected the military effort, but could do so at some time in the future. If the result is a GVN ineffective in the conduct of the war, the U.S. will review its attitude toward 1 *Mr. Colby believes that the official 'correct" relationship should be supplemented by selected and restricted unofficial and personal relation- ships with individuals in the GVN, approved by the Ambassador, where persuasion could be fruitful without derogation of the official U.S, posture . 556 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 'Of J ■— «• t <— i I support for the government. Although we are deeply concerned by repressive practices, effective performance in the conduct of the war should be the determining factor in our relations with the GVN. d. The U.S. has expressed its disapproval of certain actions of the Diem-Nhu regime and will do so again if required. Our policy is to seek to bring about the abandonment of repression because of its effect on the popular will to resist. Our means consist of expres- sions of disapproval and the withholding of support from GVN activities that are not clearly contributing to the war effort. We will use these means as required to assure an effective military program. II. MILITARY SITUATION AND TRENDS A. The Standards of Measure. m The test of the military situation is whether the GVN is succeeding in widening its area of effective control of the population and the country- side. This is difficult to measure, and cannot be stated simply in terms of the number of stragetic hamlets built or the number of roads that can now be travelled without escort. Nor can the overall situation be gauged solely In terms of the extent of GVN offensive action, relative weapon losses and defections, VC strength figures, or other measures of military performance. All of these factors are important and must be taken into account; however, a great deal of judgment is required in their inter- pretation. We have looked at these factors carefully, but we have also given great weight to the evidence of the men on the spot — the U.S. military advisors and the USOM field representatives — as to whether government control is in fact extending and becoming more accepted and solid in the various areas. We have been greatly impressed with the variation of the situation from area to area and from province to province; there is a different war in each area and province, and an example can be found somewhere to support any attitude toward the state of the counterinsurgency campaign. Our task has "been to observe the situation as broadly as possible to avoid giving exaggerated importance to any single angle of observation. B. Overall Progress. With allowance for all uncertainties, it is our firm conclusion that the GVN military program has made great progress In the last year and a half, and that this progress has continued at a fairly steady rate in the past six months even through the period of greatest political unrest in Saigon. The tactics and techniques employed by the Vietnamese under U.S. monitor ship are sound and give promise of ultimate victory. Specifically, progress is most clear in the northern areas (l and II Corps); especially noteworthy work has been done in key coastal provinces where VC strength once threatened to cut the country in half but has now been substantially reduced. In the central area and the highlands (ill Corps), progress has been steady though slower, and the situation remains difficult in the provinces to the west and north of Saigon itself. 557 *~* »-i f, ■ 8 * i-J&L&J --.-< ', ' i J - • Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 /it **■*. •— • »3mt 'L i l& J -—* -* i " Throughout the northern two-thirds of the country the strategic hamlet program has matured effectively and freedom of rural movement has grown steadily. The Delta remains the toughest area of all, and now requires top priority in both GVN and U.S. efforts* Approximately hO'fo of the people live there; the area is rich and has traditionally resisted central authority ; it is the center of Viet Cong strength — over one- third of the "hard core" are found there; and the maritime nature of the terrain renders it much the most difficult region to pacify. A first step has just been taken by the move of a third division to the Delta, but further major actions are needed. They include priority decisions by the GVN in the use of its resources, the consolidation rather than further spread of strategic hamlets in many areas, the elimination of many fixed outposts, better hamlet defenses and more trained hamlet militia. Regular army units should be reserved for use in mobile actions and for clear and hold operations in support of the strategic hamlet program. Though there are unresolved problems in several key provinces close to Saigon, as well as in the southernmost parts where the VC are strongly established, it is clear that the Delta situation has generally improved over the past year, even* with the limited resources allocated to it. Despite recent evidences of greater VC effort and better weapons, the Delta campaign can continue to go forward if the essential priority is assigned to Delta requirements, < C. Military Indicators. From a more strictly military standpoint, it should be noted that this overall progress is being achieved against a Viet Cong effort that has not yet been seriously reduced in the aggregate, and that is putting up a formidable fight notably in the Delta and key provinces near Saigon. The military indicators are mixed, reflecting greater and more effective GVN effort but also the continued toughness of the fight. 558 £*%! "-. U -^j! J O . si iivjr Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 7^4 .4 ■■'IHDHCAT.OBS " " * ' U No. of government Initiated: June July August September Mo. Ave. (estimated) Year ago Small operations Large operations Viet Cong Killed GVN Killed GVN Weapons Lost VC Weapons Captured Viet Cong Military Defectors 851 781 733 906 1+90 125 163 166 l4l 71 1896 1918 1685 2034 2000 413 521 410 525 431 590 780 720 802 390 390 375 430 1+00 450 420 Viet Cong Initiated Incidents of all Typesl310 Viet Cong Attacks Estimated Viet Cong Strength Hard Core Irregular 410 310 1380 Uio 220 1375 385 519 1675 467 21000 21000 21000 85OOO 82000 76000 21000 70000 90 1660 410 22000 98000 I Recent days have been characterized by reports of greater Viet Cong activity, countrywide, coupled with evidence of improved weaponry in their hands. Some U.S. advisors, as well as some Vietnamese, view this increased activity as a logical reaction to the steadily growing strategic hamlet - ' program, which they believe is progressively separating the Viet Cong from the rural population and from their sources of food and reinforcements. Others view it as a delayed effort to capitalize upon the political trouble All agree that it reflects a continuing capability for offensive actio". D. The Strategic Hamlet Program. I In this generally favorable military picture ? two main factors h~ve been the strategic hamlet program and the effectiveness of the U.S. advisory and support effort. We found unanimous agreement that the strategic hamlet program is sound in concept, and generally effective in execution although it has been overextended in some areas of the Delta. The. teamwork of U.S. military men and civilians is generally excellent , and on the GVN side a number of the province chiefs who handled the program poorly in its initial phases have been replaced by men who appear t9 have a better grasp of the central 559 1 * *; f and he ray well * \ have the designs imputed to him of succeeding his brother in due course. Diem is still quite a long way from being* a figurehead > and * 'his personal prestige in the country has survived remarkably well. * But Diem does depend heavily on Nhu, their central ideas are very i close if not identical^ and it would be remarkable, if Diem dropped, I Khu from a commanding position. Until the Buddhist and stud gat crises > it was probably true that the alienation -between Diem and the elite Was more a matter of basically divergent views of the right social structure and of Diem and Hhu v s handling of individuals in the government than it was a matter of reac- f tion to repressions. However* the crises have now brought the repressions "jso directly into the lives of -many of the elite that more orderly methods, ] . [which might previously have kept the loyalty of the needed amount of 'il3.XCRt g now probably cannot do no without a convincing degree of resto- ration of personal security , Yet both. more orderly methods and a . . restoration of personal* security cut diametrically across the grain of Diem's and especially Nhu's view of what is necessary to maintain their power and move toward -their idea of social revolution, * . • Thus, the discontent of the elite' — reflected chiefly in the I progressive loss of responsible men — • has now reached the point where- --•>■ jit is uncertain that Diem can keep or enlist enough talent to run the [ . * - ;war. The loss of such men as Kau and Tuycn', and the deeply disturbed 'attitude of such-S-^c^ucial-f-igureas Thuan. are the strongest evidences * of the seriousness of the situation. - 1 » -. V This is not to discount groups other than the elite. However, the Buddhists and students cannot in themselves cither threaten the -regime or do more than focus issues — although of course they seriously "damage the regime's standing in the U.S. and elsewhere* with uninhibited , i press reactions that contribute further to the persecution complex "that drives Diem and Nhu into repression. .The business community is a passive factor only. Urban labor is simply trying to hold its posi- tion, being anti-regime but not to the point of being an independent" ■ source of trouble. The rural peasantry appear little affected even by the Buddhist issue, If these groups can be kept 'even in an acquies- cent state the war could go forward, .. .;■• 1 > As matters stand, political tension in the, urban centers is so high that it could boil over at any time into another cycle of riots *■ ., repressions j and resignations. This tension would disappear in a very short time if Khu wqre removed. Whether it could be reduced to accept- * . r » * Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 icsr / but it is clear that such measures would havo to include both more moderate control methods and a better government climate particularly for civilian officials. ■ . \ effect or political tension • r • ■ I .♦■*' • . I * : * >• • ■ ■ tA. On Military Operations.. So far this has not significantly affected countryside operations in any area* U.S» personnel in the field testified that a few officer r or civilian counterparts showed concern over the Buddhist and student -issues, but not tQ the extent, as yet, of materially affecting their doing their jobs. The rural population has. been almost untouched, .The pace of GVK operations v/ss sharply cut for a short period at the end of August by transfers of units and general uncertainty, but has now largely renewed .its previous intensity. The Delta particularly has been so Concerned with the war that it has been virtually unaffected. *■ •* # >■ v*-. •"* SftJ. : - ■ f Kt Basically, ■ the unifying factors embodied in the hatred of the mili- tary for Communism remain very sharp. -This hatred is real and pervasive. It transcends domestic policies in the minds of most officers. However, there, are disturbing elements that could change this picture greatly unless the political tension can be reduced. Certain high officers have been heavily preoccupied with coup possibilities* Those who have had relatives directly involved in the regime's repressions . are deeply disturbed though not necessarily ready to act against Diem."**' Presentment of Hhu exists in top military circles and probably to some - -extent at middle levels. The fact that the great bulk of military 'officers — and" Province Chiefs — come from*- urban areas (simply be- up - ■ » 'cause of educational requirements in 'many cases) clearly does open u .-the possibility of , progressive loss of morale and effectiveness, as well as*, coup participation, if 'the regime does not cease its oppression ^against 3uddhists, students, and real or supposed opposition individual s s. _. ■ r - - -a 3 * On -Ci vrlian'Orf ic iais '• * * On the civilian 6fficial side, which. is also relevant to, the war 1 effort t the reaction to .the regime's actions has been sharper,. The # ' t: i ■ ♦ v »* ~A specific example of this is the Commandant of, the Marine Corps in Saigon. His brother, along with many other relatives of military officers and cabinet' members , was picked up in the student roundups of early September. Some were tortured, and — as in the case of the ". Commandant's brother — released enly after intercession. However, the Commandant shows no inclination to take action against the Diem. govern- - » K ment . * I {L . '* * Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 * ■ ■ Embassy and USOM report unanimously that their normal counterparts have become afraid of associating too closely with Americans, and that there is a general atmosphere of watch-and-wait , just going through the motions of the job but failing to exert what limited initiative and imagination they had previously been ready to exert ■ in face of the constant and power-directed interventions of Su, The decline in the contribution of these officials is less serious than any similar decline among the military- and province chiefs, but is nonetheless a potentially significant and growing factor if tension persists because these officials play a substantial role in the strategic hamlet program* ';■'•/ In summary >* the political tension has not yet significantly affected progress in the field ^ nor does it seer* likely to have major effects in the near future. Beyond that, however t the prog- nosis- must -be considered uncertain if political tension persists or mounts , • \ ; /- VI, OVERALL EVALUATION ■ * From the above analysis it is clear that the situation requires a constant effort by the U.S. ~o obtain a reduction, of .political tensions and improved performance by the Vietnamese Government, We cannot say with assurance whether the effort against the Viet Cong will ultimately fail in the absence of major political improvements. However 9 it does seem clear that after another period of repressive action progress may, be reduced and indeed reversed. Although the present momentum /.light . ; conceivably continue to carry the effort forward even if Diem remains in power and political tensions continue t any significant ©lowing in . J. the rate of progress would surely have a serious effect on U.S. popu-. [lar support for the U.S. effort,/ VII. U.S. LEVERAGES TO 03 TAIN DESIRED CHANGES IN THE DIEM REGIME... ».«..« ■ M— W « - A, Conduct of U.S, Representatives , - *, f - U.S. personnel, in Saigon might adopt an attitude of coolness toward their Vietnamese counterparts, maintaining only those contacts ann communications which are necessary for the actual conduct of ope; :tions in the field. To some extent this is the attitude already adopted by the Ambassador himself 9 but it could be extended to the civilian and mili- "*" tary agencies located in Saigon, The effect of such action would be largely psychological. , * .,; *% 3. Economic Leverage. Together, USOM's Commodity Import Program (CI?) and" the PL K&Q program account for between 60 and 70 percent of imports into Vietnam. .The commitment of funds under "the CI? has already been. suspended, CI? .V* ■a^ .* ' • » -. .= . ;■/-■•*>"••; Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I ICI ■ • Tp9 KHVM * ♦ . • 'A ■ deliveries -result £h the generation of piastres, most of which f,o 'to the support of the defense budget. It is- estimated that'CI?' ' * . ■ r i f - ft V, * t. ';:"•' *.**• forced ;o craw down its. foreign- exchange r^sorvos or curtail its mill- *"\ *1 *■•,** ,•••,■*. # . . ., ■ » • .• * * T*\***\r ►* v-s •*■» "A r 1 i t** *¥*£» <: * , • •* # » * . wo* y lajlwuj, t,ui ^ • * Within the domestic economy the existing large pipelines would wear, .what there would be no material reason for "inflation to berin 4 ?f - "'in the short terra period , However 9 " .the psychological effect of growing, fu . j realization that the* CI?, program has been suspended migjvt: be substantial , - 'f .; : _in 2-^ siotiths. Saigon has a large number. of speculative traders, and '-. ♦*'.""- although there is considerable police effort to control prices, this ; : ;■; might "not be able to contain a general trend of speculation and hoard- *'./. ■ ing. Once inflation did develop., it could have a 'serious effect on the . :>'.'■'/] GVtf budget and the conduce of the war. . . | ■• . . f ■ : . ;V. Apart item CI? fc two rr.ajor AID projects are up for final approval - .' ". ' the Saigon -Choi on Waterworks (09 Tni.ll ion) and the Saigon Electric Power, Project C$ l t million) • Suspension of these projects would be a : r possible A- , means of demonstrating to Congress and the v;orld that we disapprove of. "; ■'■;. GVN policies and are not providing additional" aid not directly essential • 1 '7 " ; to the war effort, . ' • • • .- - i J ' ;-C. Paramilitary and Other Assistance: ** • .:**. : • i • « • i\ ■ "* (1) USOM assistance to the Combat Police and 0SOK and USIS *-;. : ; "assistance to the- Director General of Information and the ARV:; Psyttar.j . I :_-.- : -Program could be suspended.- These projects involve a relatively sralt ; - . amount of local currency but their 1 suspension a particularly in the case .- of .USIS ;* might adversely affect programs which' the^U.S.^isnes to see. 1 . / .V : progress. '' .. * • . • *• ■ ■ - * m * (2) However > there would be merit in a gesture aimed at Colonel y the Special Forces Corrm'ar.cer s < whose forces in or near 'Saigon ; played a conspicuous "part in the pagoda affair and are a continuing '' support for Diem- Colonel Tung commands a- mixed complex of forces, **' sOftT.e of which are "sunDorted by KA? and others presently through CIA,: ■ —'.BAM -Ob % >:'■ could 'inform Diem thafwe would cut off MA? and CIA support unless tney • # • r were placed directly under Joint General Staff and were ccrnrutted to «■-.'■" . . >J£ field, operations. - '-■' -* . »'• * J :.; \ s - , V '• "/. ! ' "The practical effect of the 'cut-off : would probably bo srall, /.\ The ecuiprrint cannot be .taken our of the hands of the units, and the ; " . •• .» -'■' Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . . - tea e;.v,';;?.J of the U.S.', and would.. probably also be welcomed ' by the high military . ofricers t- £a,Victnaa > _atidLjecrtainly--by the disaffected groups in Sairon," * At the same tiwOj support should continue, but through General. Karkins rather than CIA, for border surveillance and other similar •field operations that are contributing io the war effort. • • . ' We have weighed this cut-off action carefully. It runs a risk that Colonel Tung would refuse to carry out external operations* .- ♦- •' "■* against the Lao corridor and North Vietnam, Ix night also limit CIA's' .' <* access to the military • "However^ U.S, liaison with high military 'officers could probably be fully maintained through the U.S. military advisors. On balance,, we conclude that these possible disadvantages * ".* .. ■ ■ /".are outweighed by the gains imollcit in this action.,- i • * • * *• (3) Consideration has been given both by USCK and the military * w (principally the JCS. in hashing ton) to the possibility of redirecting • ■ *. ; economic and military assistance in such a fashion as to bypass the central government in Saigon.. Military studies have shewn the technical ** „■_ feasibility v though with' great difficulty and cost a of supplying the war effort in the countryside over lines of ccrrnunications which do not involve Saigon > and it is assumed that the. same conclusions would £pply to USOM deliveries to the field under the rural strategic hamlet propraa 1 - - ' y However a there 'is a consensus among U.S. agencies in S^ gen that such an effort Is not Dractical In the fc.ee of determined ODoosition by the • » '* GVK unless a of course a a situation hac developed where the central V government was no longer in control of some areas of the country. Kor Is It at all clear that "such diversion would operate to build up the position of -the military or to cut down Nhu's position** * # • • D. Propaganda. ♦ ■ 7 - ■ ■ * *. : Although -the capability of USIS to support the United States cam- paign of pressure against the regir.>e would be sntalXj the Ambassador believes consideration must. ie given to the content and timing of the United States pronouncements outside the country. Ke has already -suggested the' use of the Voice of America In stimulating^ in its broad- casts. to Vietnamese % discussions of democratic political philosophies. '.This mediura could, be used to exploit a wide range of ascending politica pressure. In addition., a phased program of United -States official' _:.- pronouncements could* be developed for use in conjunction' with ^he other leverages as they are. applied. We must recognize .the possibility that ' r i ♦ ♦ i *• sures, ■ / t ■* " • •' . '.. ■ < * « ••• . • . - *. • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 Itf . '• :••••'■ • • * • ■ ■ . 8**4 Th - T. • • ?r i r.e Leverage. of Conditioning Our Military Aid on Satisfactory > ^ ."S r" >^ /"i •""■ «* ' * ■ ■ # # * 1 : - or toe insurgency,. • - . < : F* Conclusions, — o c; . axresGy cs.usxno concern to ..•7 Diem. Howe.ves* t the effect of pressures *hat can be carried cut ever ; i,an extended period without detriment to the war effort is Probably ( - ■ ^limited with respect/.to the possibility of Diem mqkinc necessary 7 o . We have r.ot analyzed with care what the effect night be of -* more intensive level of pressure such as cessation, of MA?- deliveries f J ,% or long continued suspension of the commodity import 'program,-' If the *'\ Diem government should* fail to make major improvements % serious ccr.~ ' sideration would have zc be given to this possible course of /action. but we believe its effect on the war effort would Se so serious - in . .;osycholo2ical if not in immediate material- terms - that it should not " -. be undertaken at the present time. >*•' ' VIII / "'COU? POSSIBILITIES » * 1 .;,A, Prospects -of a Spontaneous Coup. *• * . .* • f '-,../ The prospects of ' an early, spontaneous replacement of the Diem " ■'• Ke?ime are not high* The. two Drinciaal sources of such an attempt. ' L.»*C b»l.-U. Mil J . tCl V C-- -L XvLi O C..*~ v...«w i ww^i-,-. Li> . ..CvO JUl..j JLt.i xCUL* QIXmCU /■by a combination of their* own inability and the regime's effective countenneasures of. control, ' The student organizations have been emas-./ '♦ -\ . culatec,- _ The students themselves have displayed" more emotion than .-."■ • determination and they are apparently being handled with sufficient . police sophistication to avoid an explosion < • ■ . . .. ..■•■ * The cenerals aooear to have little -stomach for the difficult job of secretly arranging the necessary coalescence of force to upset the Regime, '. f . V • 1 ' - ■ • * ■ I ♦ Diem/}**hu are keenly aware of the capability of the generals to .take over the country, .utilising the tremendous 1 power now vested in ■ • • . * ■ • ' -*< '-;.*■ • « - . ■* . .■ . .*.'• * ■ ^ * . * - . - * * . *• ••■••.• : •.•;• ■■ : I . . * • • -' !■••■.* V - • esq: • • . •■ :••: .t • ■*••. II".. - , • - • Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 170. : l lull v^ r - ; ^-- -1 J -.v, t.*a niilitary forces. They % therefore j concentrate their manipulative i * ■ * 1 ' :ithe unity of the Array and the Establishment itself. i i Despite these unfavorable prospects for action in the short tons' jnevj factors could quickly arise, such as the death of Diem or en unpredictable and even irrational attack launched by a junior officer j " -whom arrangements could be developed for 'a more permanent replacement after a transitional ocricd. • * 3, Prospects for improvement uncer an Aj.tema.tive Government. • ■ * i \ - < [ The prospects that a reolaeen&nt regime would be an improvement : appear to be about 50-50 .* .Initially 7 only a strongly authoritarian ' regime would be able to pull the gqverns&n? together and maintain order. In- view of the pre-eminent role c:" the military in Vietnam today, it * > is probable that this role would be filled by a military officer s per- haps taking power after the selective process of a junta dispute • Such - • . an authoritarian military regime., perhaps after an initial perici of euphoria at the departure of Eiem/Nhu, would be aot to entail a resump- : :;tion of the regression at' least of Diem, the' corruDtion of the Vietnamese % Establishment before Diem 3 and an emphasis on' conventional military ^"".rather than social > economic ar£ political, considerations > with at u * ' * 'least an ecuivaient degree 'of xenophobic nationalism. ■- ■ > * These' features must be weighed ,- however s against- the possible \ results of growing dominance or succession by Khu a which" would con- tinue and even magnify "the present dissension^ unhappiness and_jjnrest. i ■ fc .- - * » 1 1 * I •i » * 3 ** i * ; ■ C, Possible U.S. Actions. -.t e point of action, or what kind of government mirint emerne. We- there- o fore need an intensive clandestine effort , under the Ambassador's # « *. . i ,. \ > ■ *KTi Sullivan (State) believes that a replacement regime which does not suffer from the. overriding 'danger' of tfnu T s -ambition .to establish a totalitarian state -(the control of which he might easily lose to the Ccmmunistsfin the course of his* flirtations) would.be inevitably better;., than the current regime even if the former did have the., deficiencies : described « • • i t i * ■ *- * t i i ft I ■ I IT" - "\. <-> r% T-J *-\ ■S-' *-l I • t Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 111 i direction, to establish, necessary contacts to allow U.S. to con- tinuously appraise coup pi-ospects. If and when we have a better picture, the choice will still remain difficult whether we would prefer to take our chances on a spontaneous coup (assuming some action by Diem and Nhu would trigger it) or to risk U.S. prestige and having the U.S. hand show with a coup group which appeared likely to be a better alternative government. Any regime that was identified from the outset as a U.S. "puppet" would have disadvantages both within South Vietnam and in significant areas of the world, including other underdeveloped nations where the U.S. has a major role. In any case, whether or not it proves to be wise to promote a coup at a later time, we maist be ready for the possibility of a spon- taneous coup, and this too requires clandestine contacts on an intensive basis. IX. ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES Broadly speaking, we believe there are three alternative policies the U.S. could pursue to achieve its political and military objectives: 1. Return to avowed support of the Diem regime and attempt to obtain the necessary improvements through persuasion from a posture of "reconciliation." This would not mean any expression of approval of the repressive actions of the regime, but simply that we would go back in practice to business as usual. 2. Follow a policy of selective pressures: "purely correct" relationships at the top official level, continuing to withhold further ! actions in the commodity import program, and making clear our disapproval of the regime. A further element in this policy is letting the present impression stand that the U.S. would not be averse to a change of Govern- ment -- although we would not take any immediate actions to initiate a ■ coup, 3„ Start immediately to promote a coup by high ranking military officers. This policy mig^rt involve more extended suspensions of aid and sharp denouncxations of the regime's actions so timed as to fit with coup prospects and planning - Our analysis of these alternatives is as follows: 1. Reconciliation. We believe that this course of action would be ineffective from the standpoint of events in South Vietnam alone, and would also greatly increase our difficulties in justifying the present U.S. support effort both to the Congress and generally to significant third nations. We are most unlikely, after recent events, to get Diem to make the necessary changes; on the contrary, he would almost certainly regard 571 n\fr - t Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Dale: 201 1 i our reconciliation as an evidence that the U.S. would sit still for just about anything he did- The result would probably be not only a continuation of the destructive elements in the Regime's policies but a return to larger scale repressions as and when Diem and Nhu thought they were necessary. The result would probably be sharp deterioration in the military situation in a fairly short period. 2. Selective Pressures. We have examined numerous possibilities of applying pressures to Diem in order to incline him to the direction of our policies. The most powerful instrument at our disposal is the con- trol of military and economic aid but any consideration of its use reveals the double-edged nature of its effects. Any long term reduc- tion of aid cannot but have an eventual adverse effect on the military campaign since both the military and the economic programs have been consciously designed and justified in terms of their contribution to the war effort. Hence, immediate reductions must be selected carefully and be left in effect only for short periods. We believe that the present level of pressures is causing, and will cause , Diem some concern, while at the same time not signifi- cantly impairing the military effort. We are not hopeful that this level (or indeed any level) of pressure will actually induce Diem to remove Nhu from the picture completely. However, there is a better chance that Diem will at least be deterred from resuming large scale oppressions, ■ At the same time, there are various factors that set a time limit to pursuing this course of action in its present form. Within 2-h months we have to make critical decisions with the GW about its 196^4 budget and our economic support level. In addition, there is a significant and growing possibility that even the present limited actions in the economic field -- more for psychological than for eco- nomic reasons -- would start a wave of speculation and inflation that would be difficult to control or bring back into proper shape. As to when we would reverse our present course, the resumption of the full program of ecoi jmic and military aid should be tied to the actions of the Diem government. , As a foundation for the development of our long-term economic and military aid programs, we believe it may be possible to develop specific military objectives to be achieved on an agreed schedule. The extent to which such objectives are met, in conjunction with an evaluation of the regime's political performance, would determine the level of aid for the following period. .3- Organizing a Coup. For the reasons stated earlier, we believe this course 572 ■ - - - - J ,. r sf t Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 m * -. # • ■ of action . should not be undertaken at the present tine. r f • . j». * • .; -Or. bc.iar.ee we consider that the most prcsiisinp course of action to iidoot at this ~cir.ie is an application .of selective chert- . - ' - ccr - pressures v principally economic ^ &ud the conditioning of long-- .tcr"i aid ca the satisfactory performance by the.uierr. government in rr.eetir*£ military and political objectives which in the ssfSPCgate eeuate to the recuirer;\ents of final victory," The specific actions record ended in Section. I of this resort are consistent with this r * * t X . ' I* * riefs of Starr * » ■ / '■ ■ .» - • • * secretary or ^ez--:;se . • * r c « -■ * • ■ •. ,» . ■ . . - * \ : * * . . .* • •• * , . «. .: ■ - . -v >■ • : » * •- -• ' * ■ ■ * ■ * . • •- ./ ,' • , » . . * .* ■ * ■V. ' ■•■»-. . . * .' * * + • • » • ■ ■ ■ a ■ - - J J ■ . » : ■ . : — «• . . • .V ►"-* ■ •* - - .' . . - • \ , _ * - • '. ■ . . . -•■ f i >:.,-: •* ♦ » ■ ■■■ • « ■ ■ *\ ■■ • > s * - * '. • > - ' . •' * •" ■ * ". ■* 1 ' " / ' ' ' » 1 _ ■ _ " • ■* "^ . 1 ■ t .- ;: • - ■ ' r. l>' « * * i t ■ * ■ * * 1 . ■ • # f I .' . ■ • * • . 1 ' . * ■ 4b + - *■ ■ * ■ * ■K • » - ^,. i-T •" . : . V • 1 ," •* -* , r - '. .]■■• * . * ** r 4 • •* v * f i ■ • * I . , m , -' ' 1 * " . - 1 - ■ . •. : - * ■ m • ' * * * i > * ' ■ * •* * • 4 .'".. '.-*■ ■. .-.if/ ' ' # > > t •« * i #• ■ IT ;-•-■ •• • » • • * ** » . . .42 " * .. .v * ■ -i «:. * • •. * . / - * ■ • • t . . . ♦ * * . • - ■* * ■ • » • . • " . *■'■ ■ - i -: ■ • • • * ■ • * * * ' 7* ■ •' ^ • • - '■?.'. :.■ . r , :• . . ■•■■ * . */ .S-. JiO. . .: •L - - ■■ : ■ ■■■:;/■ ; • • « ■ P 4 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number. NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 in i * [ O ' 1 *~, *-t --* »^ *-:>-£* RL : .J .- • i <-* J s~ -O '_**■ ■» ,, j J P 0C5 /"-- */X In conjunction Trith decisions and rocc ^eii&atiorj* in separate E333SL. President today approved reaa&aienda&lG!! that no initiative should ttSOT be taker* to give any active covert eiiccaxresest&nt to a coup, Euspo should,, towareEj be -ardent covert effort with closest sec^ity.ml&er broad guidance of MbassaSor to identify c.i i "build extracts vith possible alternative leadership as anc 3 . -*rhen it appears* Sssantial th?„t this effdTfc be totally secure and fully deniable and sefoars&ed entirely fr&* nciu.al political analysis and reporting and other activities of pcurti^ ?SS3U We repeat that this effort is not repeat not to be a&ied at active promotion of coup but only at survei" l^uce and readiness. In order to provide plausibility to denial surest you end no one else in Sribassy issue these instructions orally to Acting Station Chief and held Mas responsible to you alone for making appropriate contacts and reporting to you alone ic* All report; s to WasMngfcQaj on this stibject should be on this channel* [ c L C •* ^ 3 • ■- ■ » ** \ C : ■^*v— * - • -^ ~ - ■* *. o*j J * y ■s Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ ■ i — s SAIGON (CAS JM5), 5 October 1963 TO STATE FROM LODGE 1. lit. Col. Conein met with Gen Duong Van Minh at Gen. Minh's Headquarters on Le Van Duyet for one hour and ten minutes morning of 5 Oct 63 • This meeting was at the initiative of Gen Minh and has been specifically cleared in advance by Ambassador Lodge. No other persons were present. The con- versation was conducted in French. - 2. Gen* Minh stated that he must know American Government's position with respect to a change in the Government of Vietnam within the very near future. Gen. Minh added the Generals were aware of the situation is deteriorating rapidly and that action to change the Government must be taken or the war will be lost to the Viet Cong because the Government no longer has the support of the people. Gen. Minh identified among the other Generals participating with him in this plan: Maj . Gen . Tran Van Don Brig. Gen. Tran Thien Khiem Maj. Gen. Tran Van Kim 3. Gen. Minh made it clear that he did not expect any specific American support for an effort on the part of himself and his colleagues to change the Government but he stated he does need American assurances that the USG will not rpt not attempt to thwart this plan. h* Gen. Minh also stated that he himself has no political ambitions nor do any of the other General Officers except perhaps, he said laughingly, Gen. Ton That Dinh. Gen. Minh insisted that his only purpose is to win the war. He added emphatically that to do this continuation of American Military and Economic Aid at the present level (He said one and one half million dollars per day) is necessary. 5. Gen. Minh outlined three possible plans for the accomplishment of the change of Government: a. Assassination of Ngo Dinh Nhu and Ngo Dinh Can keeping President Diem in Office Gen. Minh said this was the easiest plan to accomplish. b. The encirclement of Saigon by various military units particularly the unit at Ben Cat. (Comment: Fifth Division elements commanded by Gen. Dinh). c. Direct confrontation between military units involved in the coup and loyalist military units in Saigon. In effect 5 dividing the city of Saigon into sectors and cleaning it out pocket by pocket. Gen. Minh claims under the circumstances Diem and Nhu could count on the loyalty of 5,500 troops within the city of Saigon. 6- Conein replied to Gen. Minh that he could not answer specific questions as to USG non-interference nor could he give any advice with respect to tactical planning. He added that he could not advise concerning the best of the three plans . 575 j ; ■ . ,....,} '-• Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 t - [ I ! I ^ V - \^> •**.-—.! iJ.1 ±J*J\ P. - .-;- ves formerly a Comaunist end still has Co.v~unist sympathies, f&ss Col. iad considered Col. Sun. - ? ^s cr.^ of the r^ore dangerous i individuals, Ce?.+ J&ksSx sts vill be on hi 3 hnees before zrte« J*~-r-o.-*T I, ^*f* T '••*— tr leu. Col. Tur.3 \ S. Gen. Minh also stated that he T .ns worried as to ths role" of C-^:i. Sran m r « * 7i < • »^ *• Thien Khien since Xhlez: ray have played, a double role in August, Gen. Mi: rested that copies of the documents previously passed to G^o.i-uibui jl*i hj.s rep— j* c^^i. i^xx^ji u-iv-c* »— ^*-*j-h j — • — lv-i-.^j^ i2^.^> u^ £.e~ s* vaxi.L j, ani stated that he. ^ro\:ld arranae to contact Conein in the near future end hoped that Conein vould be able to sset ifith hisa and giva the assurance outlined above * ■ ' . 1 ^?~. SAIGOS CAS 3U025, ^ October l?o3 • [ c TO STAGS JSOM L0DG2 3Y23 OSLY 70^ S2CR52AS2T BUSK FROM L0DS (RS?: CA5. SAIGOrl 1^5) I Reference Bis Minh-Conein neetins (Cas Saigon l-r-^5). -riiile neither General Esx&ins nor I have great faith J.n Bis Minh^ ve need instructions on his approach. Ky recoxmendation^ in which General Harhins concurs^, is that Conain vhen next approached by Icinh should: - - 1- Assure hin that US will not attempt to. thwart his plans. . -2. Offer to review his plans } other than assassination plans. 3. Assure Minh that U3 aid^.riil be continued to Vietnesa under Goverra:-3nt vhich gives promise of -ainins suppor-o of' people and winning ths war against the Corziunists. Point cut that tz is ova: vie:r that this is nest lihely %o ce J. &ne case if Government includes ^ood proportion of *, r ell. cualified civilian leaders in hey positions. ( Conein should press Minh for "details hi He composition future Government) . 1 surest the above be discussed vith Seorettiry Keicmnra and General Saylor ::ho contacted Minh in recent visit. s fchiskin'* I TAD iOR St Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ITJ -*i 7* , — — * * \~ . .-♦ . - . . MM 6 Oct 1963 FROM: TO : 7^228 Re CAS IUU5 CIA Lodge 1. Believe CAP 63560 gives general guidance requested REFILL. We have following additional general thoughts which have been discussed with President. While we do not wish to stimulate coup, we also do not wish to leave impression that U.S. would thwart a change of government or deny economic and military assistance to a new regime if it appeared capable of increasing effectiveness of military effort, ensuring popular support to win war and improving working relations with U.S. We would like to be informed on what is being contemplated but we should avoid being drawn into reviewing or advising on operational plans or any other act which might tend to identify U.S. too closely with change in govern- ment. We would, however, welcome information which would help us assess character of any alternate leadership. 2. With reference to specific problem of General Minh you should seriously consider having contact take position that in present state his knowledge he is unable present Minh T s case to responsible policy officials with any degree of seriousness. In order to get responsible officials even to consider Minh f s problem, contact would have to have detailed information clearly indicating that Minh ! s plans offer a high prospect of success. At present contact sees no such prospect in the information so far provided. 3. You should also consider with Acting Station Chief whether it would be desirable in order to preserve security and deniability in this as well as similar approaches to others whether appropriate arrangements could be made for follow-up contacts by individuals brought in especially from outside Vietnam. As we indicated in CAP 6356O we are most concerned about security problem and we are confining knowledge these sensitive matters in Washington to extremely limited group, high officials in White House, State, Defense and CIA with whom this message cleared. 577 -• -N — * J ' J r rr'O I7& * ■ ■ 1 1 ■ ■ ■ ■ * 1 Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 7HZ WHITE KOUSS WASHINGTON TO? S2C3 - hyss ONLY .October 11, 19=3 i i i ! i I 1 .- , * r. ■ ■ \ v '"MD A NATIONAL S2CURITY ACTION 2/2MORAXDUM NO. 253 0\ f *«V 1 z* TO: 3 Secretary cf Stat., Secretary cf Defense «/ - Chairman of zhe Joint Chiefs of Staff SUBJECT: South. Vietnam meeting or. October 5, 19o3, zhe President considered th© "•recommendations contained in the report of Secretary McNamara and General Taylor on their mission to South Vietnam. T'n^ President approved the military recommendations contained- * in Section I S (X~3) of the report, ■ but directed that no formal announcement be made of the implementation of nlans to with- ■■;*• draw 1, 000 U, S. milzitary personnel by the end of 1963. After discussion of the remaining recommendations of the report, the President approved an instruction to Ambassador Lodge which ~is set forth, in State Deoartment telegram. No. 534 to Saigon. * **. ■ ■ ■ ft v{^y. ' C^-i •. McC-eorce Bur.cv ** t US S\ ( Jj •' • ■ . Copy furnished: * - Director of Central Intelligence •■ * Administrator, Agency for International Develct • • TOP SSCS.3T - 2Y25 ONLY * «; \ * T >- m . Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 SECRET/KG F0PJ5I0K DiSSE'M Sr - £ Research l&sorand^! SPE-90, October 22- l^c3 TO : TKROUC-I-I: FROM : n Thi Secretary s / s ' - l U**>J kML IEJ - Items L. Hughes ...,-.„> W lXm n **F ^ v SIBJ3SCT: Statist ic;s on tb» Uar IKTort in Sou!:: Vietr^i: Show C^-Yocteb-I-? Trends 4 This* report " reviews the more significant statistics on the Communist insurgency in South Vietnam as indicators of trends in the military situation since July 19o3- * ABSTRACT ■ * Statistics on the insurgency in South Vietnsr^ although neither thoroughly trustworthy nor entirely satisfactory as criteria ., indicate sn unf&iror&ble shift in the military "balance. Since July 19^3; the trend in Viet Cong casualties } weapons losses / and defections fess been downward while the nur-iber of "Viet Cong arsed attacks and other incidents has been upward. Cornparison with earlier periods suggests that the military position of the government of Vietna-rt may have been set back to the point it occupied six sionths to a year ago. These trends coincide in time with the shttrp deterioration of the political situation. At the saiae time, even without the Buddhist issue and the attending government crisis., it is. possible tftat - the Di^vr. regime would have been unable to rjiintain the favorable trends of previous periods in the face of the accelerated Viet Cong effort. * .'***- ■ Statis tics as Indicators . ■ mm* ■ * - * Statistics j in general, are only partial and not entirely satisfactory ir.&icators of progress in the total counter ins urgency effort in South Vietnas.* Fir it j some statistics are incomplete 3 as for example ; those relating to Viet Cong attacks against strategic harvilets and desertions within the South Vietnamese military and security services. Second, all statistics are ■ acquired largely if not entirely from official South Vietnamese sources. &s such, their validity castj to sozss degree at leastj rerrain questionable^ even though the efforts of the United States military and civilise advisers * have improved the quality of this data during the past year or . * * r ■ * wrne st atiSwics \i*±d in tilts paper trere cc;:;jiloa by the Defense I-itelVi" Kice Agency (D_A; and by the Office of the Special Assistant for Co\ir.terinsi:r^*Bcy i» GSOS? S _ Dovmsraded at 12 year . x 3^Jj intervals! noz SECfGT/T^O ?GS3jm DiSSEM automatically declassified n Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I * i * . secret/mo foreign dissem - 2 Third, there are several other important indicators which are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to handle statistically. These include: morale and efficiency within the bureaucracy and the armed services, the degree of locally acquired or volunteered intelligence , popular attitudes toward the Viet Cong and the government, and the status and impact of the government's political, social, and economic activities in support of the strategic hamlet program. Nonetheless, statistics touch on some significant aspects of the military situation and provide a guide at least to trends in the fighting. Viet Cong Incidents Statistics show that the Viet Cong have accelerated their military and subversive effort since July 1963- From January 1962 until July 1963, the total number of Viet Cong armed attacks, as well as all other incidents (sabotage, terrorism, and propaganda) , dropped consistently. However, since July of this year, total incidents and armed attacks have increased appreciably. If the present trend continues through the end of this year, total incidents will exceed by more than 10$ the level for the period July-December 1962. Large Viet Cong attacks (company-size or larger) have also increased appreciably since July of this year, and, if the trend continues, could exceed by almost 30$ the level for July-December 1962 . In addition, the Viet Cong during the last half of I963 have shown increased daring, planning, and coordination in their attacks. This has been evidenced by an attack against a United States helicopter base, and by simultaneous actions against two or more strategic hamlets and even against two district capitals* Until this period, towns had not been attached since September 1961, when the capital of Phuoc Thanh province was raided by a large Viet Cong force. Casualties Although the Viet Cong have incurred relatively heavy losses during some of their more daring recent attacks, their overall casualties since July of this year have not been correspondingly high. If the accelerated Viet Cong effort and losses suffered are maintained at present levels during the rest of this year, casualties will remain about 10$ below the level in July-Dec ember 1962, the peak period in Viet Cong casualties last year. In contrast, casualties among the South Vietnamese military and security forces since July of this year are increasing and, at the present rate, could exceed by about 20$ the level for the preceding six-month period. This would raise the total casualties for 1963 by some 30$ above the 1961 and 1962 levels. Indeed, the ratio of Viet Cong to South Vietnamese forces killed and captured dropped from five-to-one for the last half of 1962 to three-to-one for the period July-September 18, 1963. This ratio would be still less favorable to the government if casualties among such secret/no FOREIGN DISSEM 580 _' «. *- \j ih>i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 - secret/wo foreign dissem - 3 - paramilitary groups as the Tillage militia and Montagnard scouts were taken into account- Casualty statistics on these groups are not complete and are not shown in this report* During the period August-September 18, 1963 , however , their casualties exceeded 500 as compared with the combined total of more than 2,300 casualties among the Army, Civil Guard, and Self Defense Corps for the same period. Weapons Losses During 1962, weapons losses among both the Viet Cong and government forces increased progressively, although government losses were somewhat greater than those of the Viet Cong- The increase continued during January-April 1963? but losses on both sides were about even- However, during May-August, Viet Cong weapons losses dropped by more than 10%, while losses among government forces increased by about 15%. If the trend noted during the last three weeks of September should continue throughout the year, the Viet Cong will lose almost 70% fewer weapons than the govern- ment- Moreover, a large number of the Viet Cong weapons lost are of the home-made variety while the great bulk of government weapons losses are of standard or modern-type pieces. ■ Defections and Desertions Viet Cong military defections increased progressively during 1963 until June, dropping from a high of 4l^ in May to a low of 107 for about the first I three weeks of September. (These Viet Cong are usually members of the insurgent armed forces, although only a small percentage are believed to be hard-core cadres. They generally defect to South Vietnamese military forces who interrogate and screen them and determine their disposition.) In addition to the military defectors, some 13,700 persons "rallied" to the government from April through August 1963 under a national surrender and amnesty campaign. This campaign, known as "Chieu Hoi," was officially inaugurated on April 19* The South Vietnamese government regards the bulk of these as Viet Cong. United States officials, who do not screen these statistics, believe the vast majority to be refugees and persons who, for one reason or another, have left areas controlled or formerly controll i by the Viet Cong- Many of them, however, may well have assisted the V^et Cong in some way voluntarily or under duress- The number of "Chieu Hoi" returnees increased progressively from April 19 to June 1963, when a high of about 3,200 was reached. By August, returnees dropped to a low of >out 1,600- Complete statistics are not yet available for September- Until June 1963, statistics on South Vietnamese desertions included all military and security personnel who had been absent from duty without official leave for any reason or for any length of time. Moreover, there was apparently no attempt to adjust these all-inclusive statistics to account for persons who had returned to duty. Including "awols," the I962 monthly average of deserters was .7% of the combined strength of the military secret/no FOREIGN DISSEM 581 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3 J NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 [ • ■ . SKcr^T/i-ro for^xg:-; dissem a - - lv - [ [ and security services. On this, oasis } there vas no charge in the ir.or:t?iIy average during the first five month.- of 19o3* 3e£innin£ in June, hovraver^ statistics on deserters excluded ^rcls" altttdugh thsy vera, still not adjusted to cover returnees. Even so ; on the rev basis 3 the monthly average of * deserters increased from .c-i in June ISoS to .8$ in August I963 . Comolete statistics are not yet available £or September. »■ * * Conclusion * ■ ■ — ■ ...,•■- On the basis of available statistical treads, there appear to have been a number of significant and unfavorable changes in the military situation in South Vietnam since July of this year. Indeed, virtually all of the indicators noted in this report suggest that the military position of the Vietnam Government E£y have reverted to the point it had reached s to a year ago. While it is difficult to relate precisely cause six iuGiv<;n and effect for adverse changes in the military situation in SouVn Vietnam their occurrence at a tirne when the political situation has deteriorated must be considered as r.jre than coincidental.- At the sar_e tlT.e^ even vithcv.t the Buddhist crisis and the more serious political difficulties following in its vakej it is possible that the Diem government \rould have been unable to maintain the favorable trends of preceding periods in the face of the accelerated Viet Cong effort since July I9S3. * ■ i (1 r L .» . £KC^t/::o ? 1 ■»> — TV** '82 ■ * I. STATISTICAL TRENDS, 1962-1963 Jan . 1- June 30, 1962 1. Viet Cong Incidents (total) 10,481 July 1- Dec. 30, 1962 (and % of change) 8,595 (-18*) Jan . 1- June 30, 1963, (and $ of change) 6,81+7 (-20*) July 1- $ of Sept. 18, previous I963* period 3,777 55$ 2. Viet Cong armed Attacks (total) 3,024 2,44l (-19$) l,94l (-20$) 1,067 '0 OD CO w o Si o 3 03 3. k. Company- s i ze and larger Viet Cong Casualties (total) GVW Casualties (total) Viet Cong Weapons Losses 156 Jan,- April 1962 1,202 GVK Weapons Losses 1,777 63 (-U0*) 13,755 17,338 (+26%) 6,036 6,846 (+13$) May Aug. 1962 Sept Dec. 1962 72 (+11$) 13,9^ (-20*) 8,056 (+18$) Jan.- April 1963 3^ 6,425 4,220 May - Aug^ 1963 (and $ of change ) *+7$ ■■> 52$ Thru Sept. 18, 1963 (and $ of previous period) 1,526 1,806 1,88U 1^53)1 6. Viet Cong Defections** 1962 Total: 1,956 1,917 1,97^ 1,178 1,703 (-11$) 335 (20$) 2,260 (+15$) 644 (28$) 1,307 (+10$) 107 (8$) *A1 though only 42$ of this period has elapsed, the statistics in this column are already 46$-55$ of the total figures for the previous six-month period, as shown in the last column. ** This exclude- s lf Chieu Hoi 11 returnees which have totalled 13,664 through August 1963 but which have declined sharply since July 1963- CO o a O HI CO CO - 2. — — > f ft 5* « O - 1 <* a 3 r* 3 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 ■ • 6 - /f. II. CONDENSED FIGURES Oil MILITARY ACTIVITY FROM JAHUAKY 1, 19&2 1. Viet Cong -Initiated Incidents i Large -Scale Attacks Total (Company-Gize ■ Total 1952* Attacks and larger) Terrorism Sabotage Prop Incidents Jan, • *- . ■ • 21 .. 839 180 257 1,825 Feb. 500 • 20 613 137 210 1,1160 Mar. 588 27 660 * 290 423 l,96l Apr, 497 27 1,024 220 192 1,933 May . 528 38 892 154 251 1,8?5 June 362 23 736 . 157 • 222 • 1,477 July 448 • 12 4 735 ' 158 223 1,564 Aug. 378 10 • 885 146 233 1,642 'Sept. 391 10 624 178 182 1,375 Oct. 1*19 l^ 583 189 166 1,357 Mov, 421 8 ■ 61 4 144 • 132 . 1,311 Dec, 384 9 670 107 I85 1,346 ■ Total' " 5,465 219 ... _ 8,875 2,0o0 2,676 19, 076 *These figures closely parallel year-end figures furnished by C0MI3SMACV. 1963 ' Jan. 252 Feb. 195 Jfetr . 344 Apr. 383 • Fay 357 June 4l0 July 407 Aug. 319 • Sep. 18 341 10 14 11 12 13 12 9 12 13 447 433 653 688 608 652 695 569 613 49 69 131 105 93 107 80 93 115 Total ' 3,003 10S 5,36"! 2. Casualties** 179 927 91 . 738 154 1,282 155 1,331 ' 150 1,203 142 1,311 183 1,368 186 . 1,167 173 1,242 842 1 , 413 10,624 Jan. 19o2 KK" GVN T?M Cap/Miss Total KET Viet Cong Tor - Cap. Total ARVK - Army of Vietnam ll6 CG - Civil Guard 76 SDC - Self-Defense Corps. 107 299 221 103 146 V?5 8 43 65 116 890 1,294 212 390 1^9o" *«C0M0SMCV has reported the following statistics for 1962 on Viet C casualties: Killed - 20,919; wounded - 4,235; captured - 5,518;' total 30,673. ' * ' ' TO fi ong t . ■ ; Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316, By: NWD Date: 201 I /CO i * p - 7 - V 2. Casualties (continued) — - ■ - February 1962 GVN Viet Cong KIA ARVN" - Army of Vietnam 72 CG - Civil Guard -68 'SDC - Self -Defense Corps 1<* Total s Totals May 1962 * ii ■■ 1 ■■■> ■ ■ ■ ■ ARVN CG SDC Totals June 1962 ARVN CG. ' SDC ■ • .. t • * m Totals July 1962 ARVN CG SDC v m Totals V/IA 118 76 106 ■■^ b2 131 197 1^0 215 3'90 509 Cap/Miss. Total KIA WIA -'Cap. 7 k2 75 2hh 300 12^ torch 1962 * * - ■ Ar^n CG SDC ft * 97 160 t 266 219 223 .295 1 28 27 65 ■ Total 523 737 1^0 . April '1962 ■p- 1 ; ARVN CG. • SDC •' *'• ' • 9b. 108 ' "105 Ibh 222 * 1 66 fcfc - - 2 2*1 68 9 1 " eh 91 150 133 186 291 13 19 ^5 230 296 U89 325 613 77 . 1,015 1,666 86 62 236. 165 . 1U9 372 13 ' 153 2bk 257 76l 36k 686 212 SECRHT/lIO FOREIGN DISS3M Tota 668 ; 1,205 316 353 1,87^ W m :.i,i»oo 1^56 551 523 '2,530 '3B7 532 151 : 1,070 1,596* 292 U15 i?,303 993 1,756* 352 52^ 2,632 lH3 4Ui • 2,520 ■\ 1,282 1,5^ I12U 542 2,510 Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 Wo . • ' \ ■ r I ! 1 ■I - • ... - Total Oct. 1962 if* Nov. 19&2 Total Dec. 1962 SECRET/HO FOREIGN DISSEM • * - 8 - 2, Ca sualt ies (continued) GVN Viet Cong KIA w in ARVN • 67 * 149 . 2 CG ' 103 170 15 SDC 1 207 307 h6 • Total ■ > * 377 "' 626 63 ft * Sept. 1962 . • . ARVN .125 . 231 . 2 • CG I k6 101 3 SDC 2lt8 31 J i 5* Cap/Miss. Total 218 KIA WIA Cap . 288 560 1(19 6h6 59 ► I i * i ARVN CG 77 63 ■ 238 11*2 #■ 2 3 • 317 208 * ! SDC 225 239 59- 523 • 1 1 Total 365 619 64 . i,c48 1,967 286 ARVN 66 233 15 ' 314 CG 72 156 6 23^ SDC 272 Mi 5 71 . 788 1*10 831* 92 ARVN ft 50 232 • 1 283 CG ' • ' 50 118 ' • r 175 SDC 194 268 70 532 Total 29^ 6l8 78 Totals, ^19o2 4,1(17 7,195 ' '1,270 Jan. 1963 ARVN . CG SDC + Total 153 83 217 1*53 lt32 152 324 1 9Q3 10 12 80 595 21(7 621 102 * • * SECRET/NO FOREIGN .DISS3M v»OC * Total 1,066 2,271 367 669 3,307 . 358 150 6l6 l,l2l( . 2,218 365 hh6 . 3,029 373 2,626 1,336 1,982 368 561 2,913 990 2,203 289 1(63 " 2,95! 12,882 21,158 U,235 5,700 ' 31, C9." 1,^63 . 1,754 318 379 2,45 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 /$7 Feb. JL9b3 • k ARVi ff CG SDC M 4 Total i\ RVN CG ♦ l-ferch 1963 SDC • Total • April 19o3 ftHVH CG SDC ■ * > Total 1 KXA 82 87 210 379 * 75 161 Ilk 4J.U * 192 91 223 Tor -■ 9 - Casualties (continued) GVn' 225 139 293 oT6~ * . 306 259 286 851 •352 136 390 WXAi Cap/M iss. Total KIA 6 10 66 "62" 11 51 "55 15 13 68 9*6* 312 236 _569 l,llf 385 U31 511 l,32f 559 25 681 l,58o Total 55: viet Cong WJA Cap. Total . l708)| 303 ' 292 l7oT9 1,553 3o8 205 2,016 1,6*60 25B" ' 388 2,30't iT^TS" ii§95 2~9T *6~95 *2 , 85$ . '£, June 19&3 * n VH SDC Total July 1963 ARVN CG SDC Total August 1963 ARVN • CG : SDC .. Total Sept. 18, 1963 ARVN CG SDC Total ;als. 1963* 99 89 201 389 m. r . 178 103 258 92 6Q 150 310 83 101 3,756 256 158 358 772 1*76 198 397 529 1,071 313 105 218 65 2 6 82 •90" 23 51 232 3C5 1U 151 179 . 357 ■ 253 _65l 1,251 677 352 877 •1,906 * *». - ■186 __519 1,125" 251 2 336 221 8fc 5 Co 211 JS6_ _U8_ T83 172 1,190 EEI CT57 12 ; 27o» 57862 310 537 .2,609 * B. 1,918 372 3"87 2,6Tf , 275$7 *"2Co' 5T6~" 2,069 I72F9 101 329 2,529 '3,523" iii^a 2C.3fe9 *These figures do not induce G V I'l casit<ies for other paramilitary forces, --.'hich • are Incomplete but which in August and September 19o3 totalled 571. SECRKT/NO EORKIQN MESSEM •~i P, 7" VfiS • 1. t ;{ l * * i » Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 33 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 .~ , 19&- Total Vict Cone; 2,753 ' "1962 • Jan. - Apr. 1,202 May - Aug, 1,526 Sept, - Dec. 1,806 Total • M3 1 ? 1963 ■m January 683 February 399 torch 367 April ■ A68 Kay 5& June 39^ July 37 1 * August 371 Sept. l8 335 3,955 secrht/no foreign dissem - 10 - 3-. WEAPOK LOSSES* GVN 5,982 ■ » 1,777 1,88>+ Jj£$ 5,195 *157 253 h6l 191 k63 ■ 580 ■ 663 y 55U 6UU It, 878 ■ *Kany VC weapons lost are of the homerra&e variety. .1 / • ■ • 1*. VXBT CONG DEFECTIONS** - i i 1 - . 1962 1,956 1963 * January • 168 February 2*15 l&rch 39^ April 371 May June 39H July 303 August 191 Sept. 18 107 Total 2,592 " It II **This do-^s not include "defectors coming* in under the "Chieu Hoi" or amnesty progr&ni* .. , * ■ • * SECR5t/':0 FOPETQI-: pispem « J O G . I&1 • K Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 i SECIST/iTO FOREIGN DISSEM - 11 - III* DSSERTIOKS IK TIE SOUTH VIESEM-ESE MILITARY AED SECURITY SERVICES* t ■ ! i ■ I I c VI ! > J : 1 ' ! Date 19o2 January February Karch April tear June July August September October Koveiober December Total 1963* ■ ■ ■ ■ . January February terch April Kay June July Augus 4. J'otal RVfiAF** 933 If83 .1,168 1,273 1,3^ 1,160 855 867 629 767 8^7 §77 11,203 865 723 656 853 999 877 686 830 Civil Guard and Sc-lf Defense Corp • 6,^89 1,553 1,032 2,110 1,057 1,638 1,997 2,105 1,269 1,505 1,7H 1,270 1 ^ ■ 1 ■■■■ - i\ \ m * 18,721 l,8lU 1,389 2,260 2,018 2,165 2,289 2,501 m hi ■* ■ - - * 15,877 - Total ■ . 2, If 86 1,565 3,278 2,697 2, If 01 2,793 2,852 2,972 1,898 2,272. 2,558 29, 92^ 2,679 2,122 2,916 2,871 3,l6H 2,318 2,975 3,331 22,376 Percent of Combined ' Strength of KVflAF, Civil Guard , Self Defense Corps*-** .8 • .5 1.0 .8 .7 " .8 .8 • .8 . :I .7 . .6 Average : . 7 .7 .5 ■ .7 .7 .8 .6 .7 .8 j Average:. ,7 I : * *From January 19^2 through lay 19o3> the above statistics include, in addition, - : - to. deserters all other persons vho have been absent without official *ave * ( ,: avol") for any length of tirre or for any reason. The statistics have not been adjusted to take into account those persons vho returned to duty. From June through August 19o3> the statistics consist entirely of do sorters 'and exclude tr avols, n but still have not been adjusted to account for returnees 1 **Army, Kavy, R&xdtaes* and Airforce. , [ **-*Fro;a January through December 19o2, the combined strength of these services increased front 315, ^ to 390,220. From January through Au-ust 19S3, the increase was from 392^60 to kCh, r (§9. * , ' ^ - , SECFST/KO FOSEIGSf DISSEM • • ■ * * . rpe - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 . ^- '. r i s SAIGON 196U, 25 Oct. 63 FROM LODGE TO McG. BUKDY 1, I appreciate the concern expressed by you in ref. a relative to the Gen. Don/ Conein relationship , and also the present lack of firm intelligence on the details of the general's plot. I hope that ref. b will assist in clearing up some of the doubts relative to general's plans, and I am hopeful that the detailed plans promised for two days before the coup attempt will clear up any remaining doubts. 2. CAS has been punctilious in carrying out my instructions. I have personally approved each meeting between Gen. Don and Conein v/ho has carried out my orders in each instance explicitly. While I share your concern about the continued involvement of Conein in this matter, a suitable substitute for Conein as the principal contact is not presently available. Conein, as you know, is a friend of some eighteen years' standing with Gen. Don, and General Don has expressed extreme reluctance to deal with anyone else. I do not believe the involvement of another American in close contact with the generals would be productive. We are, however, considering the feasibility of a plan for the introduction of an additional officer as a cut-out between Conein and a designee of Gen. Don for communication ptirposes only. This officer is completely unwitting of any details of past or present coup activities and will remain so, 3» With reference to Gen. Harkins ' comment to Gen. Don which Don reports to have referred to a presidential directive and the proposal for a meeting with me, this may have served the useful purpose of allaying the General's fears as to our interest. If this were a provocation the GVN could have assumed and manufactured any variations of the same theme. As a precautionary measure, however, I of course refused to see Gen. Don. As to the lack of information as to General Don's real backing, and the lack of evidence that any real capabilities for action have been developed, ref. b provides only part of the answer. I feel sure that the reluctance of the generals to provide the U.S. with full details of their plans at this time, is a reflection of their own sense of security and a lack of confidence that in the large American community present in Saijon their plans will not be prematurely revealed. if. The best evidence available to the Embassy, which I grant you is not as complete as we would like it, is that Gen. Don and the other generals involved with him are seriously attempting to effect a change in the government. I do not believe that this is a provocation by Ngo Dinh Hhu, although we shall continue to assess the planning as well as possible. In the event that the coup aborts, or in the event that Khu has mastermined a provocation, I believe that our involvement to date through Conein is still within the realm of plausible denial. CAS is 590 1 s Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 i 19/ SAIGON 1964 (Coii't) Page 2 • . t ! . ( f \ . oerfectly prepared to have me disavow Conein at any time it may servo the national interest. 5. I welcome your reaffirming instructions contained in CAS Washington 7422S. It is viral thzt we neither thwart a co-oo nor that \yq are even in a position where we do not know what is going on. 6. "We should not thwart a coup for two reasons. First, it s&cms at least an even bet that the next government would not bangle and stumble as much as the present one has. Secondly, it is extremely unwise in th<^ long range tor us to pour cold water on attempts at a coup, particularly when they are just in their beginning stages. \V\ .should remember that this is the only way in which the people in Vietne.m can possibly get a change of government. Whenever we thv. ur: attempts at a coup, as we have done in the past, we are incurring very Ion** lasting resentments, we are assuming an undue responsibility for keeping the incumbents in office, and in general are setting ourselves in judgment over the affairs of Vietnam, Merely to keep in touch with this situation, and a policy merely limited to "not thwarting" are courses both of which entail some risZcs but these are lesser risks than either thwarting ail coups while they are stillborn or our not being informed cl what is happening. All the above is totally distinct from not wanting , U.S. military advisors to be distracted by matters which are not in their domain, with which! heartily a.gree'. But obviously this does net conflict with a policy of not thwarting. In judging propose:, coups, we must consider the' effect on the war effort* Certainly a succession of fights for control of the Government of Vietnam, .would interfere with the war effort. It must also be said that the war effort ha. s been interfered with already by the incompetence of the present government and the uproar which this has caused. . ;-, 7. Gen. Don's intention to have no religious discrimination in a ■ future government is commendable and I applaud his desire not to be "a vassal" of the U.S. Hut I do not think his promise of a democratic election is realistic. This country simply is not ready for that procedure. I would ^.dd two other requirements. First, that there be no wholesale curves of personnel in the government. Individuals who were particularly reprehensible could be dealt with later by the regular legal process. Then I would be impractical, but I am. thinking of a government which might include Tri Quang and which certainly should include- men of the stature * of Mr. 3uu, the labor leader.. , ■ ' • Copy to Gen. Harkins. / * . • . X^rf —J •>_*» U «• ^_J J v: \ • — .... Ot3 l * Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3-3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 20 1 I m wj i "■' * •. fro:: : . -3 .i*—- KcGeorge Buftdy to Lou& 25 Oct 63 £"~. A? 63590 Your 1964 mcrri helpful. * * - We vill continue to "be grateful for all additions! Information Sivins Increaaed clarity to 1 prospects of action "by Bon or others, and ve look forward to discussing T .ri th 3^ou the irhole question of control ex& cut out on your return 3 always assuirdns that one of thece D-Days doe.?> not turn out to be Veal- we are particularly concerned about hazard that &*&. unsuccessful coup, however carefully we avoid direct en^ajerr.e-nt/ v.dll he laid at our door by public opinion almost everywhere . 'therefore, while sharing your view that ve should not be In position of thwartir.g coup, v vould like to have option of judging and warning on any. plan, with poor pre ;pocts of success. He recognize that this is a large order ; but President wants you to knew of our concern. y y K . \ \ y *. * m ^ \ ( s i 1 - 1 I" i \ :^.^ i- ■• . tv < \°z I Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 633 16. By: NWD Date: 201 1 i s ( 30 Oct 1963 ■ 1 1 • » PROM: JfdSSGRGS HJNDY TO : L03GS CAS 79109 "\ * * S "l. Your 2023, 2C&0, 20^1 and 20*1 3 examined with care at highest levels here. You should promptly discuss this reply and associated messages with Berlins whose responsibilities toward any coup arc very heavy especially after you leave (see para* 7 below). They give much clearer picture group's alleged plans and also indicate chances of action with or without our approval new so significant that we should urgently consider our attitude and contingency plans. We note parti- cularly Don's curiosity your departure and his Insistence Conein he available from Wednesday night on, which suggests -date might he as early as Thursday. " 2. Believe our attitude to coup group" can still have decisive effect on its decisions, We believe that 'what we say to coup group car! produce delay of coup and that betrayal of coup plans to Diem is not repeat not our only way of stopping coup. We therefore need urgently your combined assessment with Harkins and CAS (including their separate coznents if they desire). We concerned that our line-up of forces in Saigon (being cabled in ne:cb message) indicates appro:-: Ii:ately equal balance of forces, with substantial possibility serious and prolonged fighting or even defeat. Either of these "could be serious or even disastrous -for u.S« interests, so that we nust have assurance balance of forces clearly .favorable. 1 3. With your assessment in hand/ we nighty feel that we should con- vey message to Bon # whether or not he gives k or k& hours notice that woul (A) continue escplicit hands-eff policy, (3) positively entourage coup, or (c) discourage. - ■• lv. In any case, believe Conein should find earliest opportunity express to Son that we do not find presently revealed plans give clear prospect of cuick results. This conversation should call- attention iiraortant Saigon units sti 11. apparently Idyal to Diem and raise serious issue as to what neans coup group has to deal with then. . 5, From operational standpoint, we also deeply, concerned Don only s"ookesr;.an for group and possibility cannot be discounted he Stay not be in good faith. We badly need some corroborative evidence whether Mifeh and others directly and completely Involved. In view Don's claim he doesn't handle ''military planning" could not. Conein tell Don that we need better military picture &rA that Big Minh cculd boT^unicate this most naturally and easily to Srillwell? ^We -recognize desirability involving ¥ACV to minimum, but believe Stillwell far hiore. desirable this purpose than using Conein both ways. • . ' :""*■** ( v, \ V > - _ ■ _ ■ r*v *r - - -w -r - - .y. . ... .._„.„_ I Li •" 3 r- r> rt *-- \J K-- Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 V . ^-^2^ * * x 6. Complexity above actions raises question "hither you should ire to present Thursday schedule- Colour you c.:~d other U.S. elements should take no action that could indicate 11*3. awareness coup possi- bility, Eo T /rever ; DOD is sending berth- equipped military aircraft th&t will arrive Saigon Thursday and could tskd you out thereafter az l&tcj _ Saturday afternoon in time to ir.eet your presently proposed arrival Washington Sunday.. You could explain this being done as convenience and that your Washington arrival is se/.ie. A further advantage such air- craft is that it would permit your prcirvpt return. from any poinu en" rouvc it necessary* To reduce time in transit; you sho\u.d use this plane, out we recognize delaying your departure may involve greater risk that you XJersonally would appear involved if any action -tool: place. Kowevar, advantages vour having extra two days in Saigon may outweigh this and we leave timing of flight to your juagnieni:, . • x 7, Whether you leave Thursday or later, believe it essential that prior your departure there "be fullest consultation Harkins and CAS and thsrc there "be clear arrangements for handling (A), normal activity, (3) continued coup contacts, (c) action 'in event a coup starts. ¥e assusie you will vish •I'ruehart as charge to be head of country tean in nor.r.al situation, "but highest authority desires it clearly understood thau after your departure Earkins should participate in supervision- of all coup contacts and that in event a coup begins^ he. become head of country team and direct repre- sentative, of President, with Truehart in effect acting as PGLAD. On coup contacts we will maintain continuous guidance and will expect equally con- tinuous reporting with prcr:rot account of any important divergences in assessments of Barkins and Snith. - ' . .. . 8- If coup should start, question of protecting U*S* nationals at once arises* We can move Marine Battalion into Saigon hy air from Okinawa within 2^ hours if available. We are sending instructions to C1KCPAC to arrange orderly novenenu of seaborne Marine Battalion to waters adjacent to South Vietnasie in position .to close Saigcn Within a-o-oro:-: irately 2k hours, \ . \ ■ 9* 5?3 are now examining post-coup contingencies here^and request your imnediate recc^rieridations on position to be 'adopted after coup begins, especially with respect to requests for assistance of .different sorts fron one side or the other also request you forward contingency recommendations for action if coup (A) succeeds, (3) fails, (c) is indecisive. 10. We reiterate burden of proof must be on coup group to show a substantial possibility of quick success; otherwise, we should discourage them, from proceeding since a miscalculation could result in jeopardizing U„S„ position in Southeast Asia* * y ' r - -: ~r- r r- '* f | :t -T • I » » il * **• -■ _ •J - --~^ d * * S * m Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NMD 633 16, By: NWD Date: 201 1 Hb TOP SZCRET 30 OctOC :* 1953 FROM: KarkinSj Saigon To: " Taylor, Washington, D. NR 202S C Your JCS 4183-63 arrived as I was in the process of drafting one for you a: or. 3 the same lines. I share your concern, I have not as yet seen SAIGON* 768, I s. . to the Embassy for a copy at 0S30 this morning - as of now 1100 - the Embassy has not released it. Also CINCPAC 0-300040Z infor JCS came: as a surprise to me as I am unaware of any .change in local situation which indicates necessity for ac.lo.as directed. v Perhaps I f ll find the answer in SAIGON 76S. Or perhaps actions directed £n CINCPAC 300040 Z are precautionary in light of Gen. Don's statement report cl in CAS 1925 that a coup .would take place in any case.net later than 2 November. It rnigi be noted Don also is supposed to have said CAS SAIGON- 1956 - that though, the cc, committee would not release the details, the Ambassador would receive the complete plan for study two days prior to the scheduled times for the coup. I have not been informed by the Ambassador that; he has received any such plait**, I talked to hirn yesterday on my return from 3angkok and he offered no additional infc mation. Ke has agreed to keep me completely informed-.if anything new turns up. . Incidentally he leaves for Washington tomorrow (31st) afternoon. If the coup is to happen before the second he's hardly going to get two days notice. One thine I have found out, Don is eithe_r'Tyi^g -or playing both ends againsi the middle. What he told me is diametrically opposed to what he told Col. Coneim Hi :.-■ Conein the couo will be before November 2nd. He told me he \vas not planning a :c . p., I sat with Don and Big'Minh for 2 hours during the parade last Saturday. No one rr.er.- .tioned coups. To go on: * ' " _- - . * ■ . Both CAS SAIGON 1896 and "1925 were sent first and "delivered to me after cfispa^ Mv 1991 was discussed with the Ambassador prior to disp&tciu My 1993 was not, basically because I had not seem CAS SAIGON 1925 before dispacch and I just wante-r ze'C the record straight from my side'and where my name was involved. * \ The Ambassador and I are certainly in to'ueh.with each other but whether the gc: . tications between us are effective is something else.' I will say Cabot T s methods cf operations are entirely different from Amb Noltings as 'far as reporting in the military is concerned. ,* ■ ' Fritz would always clear messages concerning the military with me or my star: prior to dispatch* So would John Richardson if MACV was concerned. This is not tix today. Cite CAS 1896 and 1925 for examples. Also you will recall I was not the 1 recipient of several messages you held when you were here. 1 CINCPAC brought this matter up again when I saw him in Bangkok* this past wee end. He is going to make a check, when he returns to see if he holds messages I have not received. Have just received SAI.GON 7oS* I will have to report you are correct w» in believing that she Ambassador is forwarding military reports and evaluations wiihou consulting me. For his weekly, report to the President, at his request, I furnish hint a short military statement. For preparation of 7oS I made no mention of the Delta* I will answer 76S separately today.* TOP.SEGR2T r- f> ot>5 Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 % • % i r TOP SECRET - There is a basic difference apparently between the Ambassadors * thinking and mine on the interpretation of the guidance contained in CAP 63560 dated 6 October and the additional thoughts, I repeat, thoughts expressed in CAS Washington 74228 dated J) October. I interpret CAP 63560 as our basic guidance and that CAS 74228 being additional thoughts did not change the, basic 'guidance in that no initiative should now be taken to give any active covert encouragement "to a coup. The Ambassador feels that 74228 does change 63560 and that a change of government is desired and feels as stated in CAS SAIGON 1964 that the only way to bring about such a change is by a coup. I'm not opposed to a change in government, no indeed, but I'm inclined to feel that at this time the change should be in methods of governing rather than complete change of personnel. I ha,ve seen no battin^ order proposed by any ox the coup groups, I think We should take a hard look at any proposed list before we make any decisions. In my contacts here I have seen no one with the- strength of character of Diem 3 at least in fighting communists. Certainly there are no Generals qualifi* to take over in my opinion, I am not a Diem man per se. I certainly see the faults in his character. I am here to back 14$ million SVN people in their fight again, communism and it just happens that Diem is their leader at this time.- Most of the Generals I have talked to agree they can go along with Diem, all say its the Nhu family they are opposed to. Perhaps the pressures we have begun to apply will cause Die in and Nhu to change their ways- This is apparently not" evident as yet. I'm sure the pressures we have begun to apply if continued will affect the 1 war effort. To' date they have not. I am watching this closely and will report when I think they have. •■/...■ l' m ' I do not a^ree with the Ambassadors assessment in 768 thai: we are just holding our own. The GVN is a way ahead in the I, II and parts of the III corns -and making progress in the Delta. Nothing has happened in October to change the assessment you and Secretary McNamara made after your visit here. ' ^ . — ^ ~ -; \. I would suggest we hot try to change horses too quickly. Tha we continue to take persuasive actions that will make the horses change their course and methods of action. That we win the military effort as quickly as possible, then let them make any and all the changes they want. After all, rightly or wrongly, we have backed Diem for eight - lon<* hard years. To me it'seems incongruous now to get him down, kick him around and <*et rid of him. - The US has been his mother superior and father confessor since he's been in office and he has leaned on us heavily. Leaders of other under-developed countries will take a dim view of our assistance "if "they too were led to believe the same, fate lies in store for them.. .: - _ - - /"* ""3 "~* *^» ^3^*1 \ "-» 117 \ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 - h • i ¥ 1 1 - - — . ■ B • - r : - ; «-;* , * * — i* r ^^» ^ 4 ■ * - _ . • ■ 3G1030Z October 1962 FROM: General. Harkins, Saigon ",' TO: General Taylor, Washington ■ ..- NR: MAC 2033 1. Admiral Felt not addee this message but will be provided copy upon his arrival Saigon tomorrow. ' ', '-V 2. I now hold copy of SAIGON 763 and this amplifies my MAC 2 ; which initially responded to your JCS 4183-63. 3. SAIGON" 76S was Ambassador Lodge personal report to President in response to DEPTEL 576 which is possible explanation why I had not sesn. 76S until one week after dispatch and only then when I requested a copy I might intelligently respond to your JCS 4188-63 which referred to 768. 4. Upon receipt of DEPTEL 576 Ambassador Lodge requested that I / provide him brief suggested inputs for responses to questions 1 and 2 (a) I of DEPTEL 576 in that they were principally military in nature. I have done this on weekly basis but have had no knowledge as to whether my suggested / brief inputs were utilized in his persona,! report since as indicated afeot these were not opened to me. .' ■ 5. My suggested brief inputs for para 1 which were provided Hie Ambassador for use as he saw fit in drafting his personal evaluations for \ . the past three weeks follow: ' . , • '16 OCT: On balance we are gaining in the contest with the VC. There will continue to be minor up s and downs but the general trend has been and t continues upward. ' . : j 23 OCT: V/hile significant changes are, and will be, difficult to identify on a day to day or even weekly comparative basis as regards the contest with the Viet Cong, the general trend continues to be favorable. The tempo of RVN - initiated operations is increasing and recently £13 tempo of VC - initiated activity has fallen off, 30 OCT: No change from that previously reported. National day z:":VLrs this past week tended to bring about a slight reduction in the tempo p£ RVN initiated actions, however VC initiated actions also waned and on b lance the trend continues to be "favorable, . •- . . , 6. My suggested brief inputs for paragraph. 2(a) which were provided the Ambassador for use as he saw fit in drafting his personal evaluations for the oast three weeks follow: - .... 16 OCT: The government has responded at many points when we have cited need for improvement in the campaign against the VC (shift of boundaries; placement of VNSF activities in corps areas under OPCON ci corps comdr; reallocation of forces). Additionally .Gen Don a*td Gen' Stilwell ray G-3 have spent the last week in the conduct of a Corps by Corps assessment of the present situation with a view to s further desirable reallocation of forces. Based on their recommendations I will make further recommendations to Pres. Diem, (for inclusion in ANS to para 2(a) Ambassador was advised that US/GVN military relations remain good). ■ \l Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 118 I \ h ) »Nr # « *. j r. A t , I *i K iv a ,1 * *» 23 OCT: Resoonse received from the government iiv reaction to military areas where we have cited needed improvement has been favorabl/e in some areas, while in other areas no indication^! response has been received to date. In no case have they flatly resisted recommended improvements. Favorable indications are the commitment of nearly half of the general reserve to operations, plans for possible further redistribu- tion of forces, and a recognition of the requirement to effect consolidation in the strategic hamlet program. t ,., v - j ; ■ » v 30 OCT: No specific responses have been received from the govern- ment this past week in reaction to military areas where we have cited need for improvement. This is believed due in great part to their pre- occupation" with National* day affairs. - '.;:.' 7 # Comparison of my 23 October suggested brief inputs quoted above with SAIGON 768 indicates Ambassador Lodge did not see fit to utilise my suggestions to any significant degree. It also apparent that upon further reflection Ambassador determined that more detailed response was required than he initially felt necessary when he requested brief inputs on principally military items. : 8. I believe certain portions SAIGON 7^8 require specific comment. These follow: .. - — - '" ■" " Para F of answer to question 1 - View of Vice Pres The that there are onlv 15 to 20 all-around hamlets in the area south of Saigon which are really good is ridiculous and indicates need for him to gat cut of Saigon and visit countryside so as to really^know of -progress which Lj bein<* made In past two weeks I have visited nine Delta provinces, { Ninh, Binh Duong, Hau.Nghia, Long An, Kien Phong, Kien Hoa, An C . 4— ' ir-i •■ r J Phon^ Dinh, Chuong Thien) eight .ofjvvhich are south of Saigon, and I do not find the zrrovince chiefs or sector advisors J;o hold the same views as Vice Pres Tho. ". . > J Para H of answer to question 1 - I am unable to concur in statement that quote one cannot drive "as much around the country as one could two years a^o end of quote. I believe it will be some time before, if we ever do, experience mass surrenders of the VC." I am unable to concur in statement that VC is quote in fact, reckoned at a higher figure than iz v.-£,s two years ago end quote. I havfc not observed the signs thai hatred of the Government has tended to diminish the Army's vigor, enthusiasm and enterprise. I find it difficult to believe the few rumors one hears regarding Generals bein^ paid off with money and flashy cars". Most cars I see in use by Generals are same they have been using for past two years and few if any Qualify as flashy to my mind. I do not concur with the evaluation*. at the 14 October report of the Delta Subcommittee of the Committee >n Province Rehabilitation which states that the VC are gaining. Moreover I v ? % • - %.' V* ^ ooa Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 /*-! 30 Oct 106Z \ FROM: Iodge TO ' : State CAS- 20o3 ^ 1. vfe must j 02* course ; get best possible estinjats of chance 01 11 v* -:-% inking; ut ac eo.^/s success and -this estimate elu§o color ou not" think we have the power to delay or discourage a coup. Dor; has made it clear many times that this is a Vietnamese affair. It is theoretically possible for us to turn ever the information which has been given to us in confidence to Dien and this would undoubtedly stop the coup and would asafte traitors out of us. For practical purposes therefore I would say that we have very little influence on what is essentially a Vietnamese affair. In addition, this would place the heads of the Generals, their civilian supporters, and lower military officers on the spot, thereby sacrificing .a significant portion of the civilian and military leadership needed to carry the war against the VC to its successful conclusion After our efforts not to discouraga a coup and this change of heart, we would, foreclose any possibility of change of the C-VIJ for the better. Dieaa/Khu have displayed no intentions to date of a desire to change the traditional Methods of control through police action or take any repeat any actions which would uK&0?:v"-iTte the power position or solidarity of the Kjgo family, This, despite our heavy "pressures directed DEPIEL 53^ ■ If our &tte:.vot to thwart this c ._> were successful, which we doubt, it is our fir^i estimate "that ycunger officers 3 small groups of military, would then engage in* an abortive action creating chaos ideally suited to VC objectives. , ! 2. While we will attempt a combined assessment in a following message,- time has not yet perasitted substantive examination of this matter with General Earkins. 2fy general view is that the U.S, is trying to bring this medieval country into the 20th Century and that we have made considerable progress in military and economic ways but to gain victory we must also bring then into the 20th Centu?.y politically and that can only be done oy either a thoroughgoing change in the behavior of the present government or by another government. The Viet Cong -problem is partly military :uu it is also partly psychological and political. 3. .With respect to paragraph 3 Hef., I believe' that we should continue our present position of keeping hands off but continue to monitor and press for more detailed information. CAS has seen analyzing po .r.tlal couo forces for some time and it is their estimate that the Generals have probably figured their chances pretty closely and probably also expect that once they begin to- move, not only planned units, but other units will join them. We believe that Vietnam's best Generals are involved in v« \ - i Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011 ( e! * .V-i„.- 'I- •♦ - -* direct ing this effort. If they can't pull it off- it is doubtful other military leadership could do so successfully* It is understand- able that the Generals would "be reticent to reveal full details of th plan for fear of leaks to the GVDI. ^ ■ • km ' Be para- k, Ref*, we expect thst-Conein will meet Don on the night of 30 Oct or early morning 31 Oct- We "agree *rith Para. k } Kef., that we snould continue to press for details and question Don as to hi, estimate of the relative strengths of opposing forces. We do not believe, however, that we \ should show zrrr si^nc of attempting to direct this affair our selves or of giving the impression of second, thoughts on this Vietnamese initiation. In the meantime, we will respond speci- fically to CAS Washington 79126. Please note that CAS Sr-igon 2059 corrects CAS Saigon 2023 and tab regiments of the 7th Division are in- cluded in the coup forces. • 5. Apparently Para. 5, Hef ., overlooks CAS 1^5* 5 Oct 1903 which gave an account of the face to face meeting of General rr B: and Conein at Minh's instigation and through the specific arranger fient of Gen Don. Xinh specifically identified Gen Don as participating in a plan to change the government. Please note that Minh : s rem* trks parallel in every way the later statements of Gen. Don. ffes believe that the limita- tion of contact to Don and Cein is an appropriate security measure consonant with our urging that the smallest number of persons be aware of these details, . 6. tfe do not believe it vise to ark that "Big Mir.h" pass his pi 2 to Gen. Stilvell* The Vietnamese believe that there are naaabeJPS of th3 U*S. military who leak to the Government of Vietnam. I do not doubt thav this 'is an unjust suspicion but it is a fact that this suspicion exists and there is no use in pretending that it does not. J. I much appreciate your furnishing the berth- equipped military *■ • _ t_ -r j l- .? ^. « A ^4- T 2»J „J J-—. J 11 n \ jt ..- J-"**-.A ^ ~%" ..-' — . , L ..... t.i. ,. »■*--. o aircraft which I trust is a jet. I intend to tell Pan American tha jet has been diverted for my use and therefore I "will no longer need their services, this will undoubtedly leak to the newspapers and the GVN may study this move with some - suspicion. I will answer any inquiries on this score to the effect that I -am most pleased by this attention end that this is obviously done as a* measure to insure my comfort and save my time. .Do allay suspicions further 7 I will offer space on the aircraft to MACV for emergency leave cases, etcV, and handle this in as routine fashion as possible. I wish to reserve comment as to my actual time of departure until I have some additional information, hopefully tomorrow. ; \ » • •• • -■ ■;• ' L ty4 v — -i .^ 1 J Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 r \ f Sg - v y* ?v j \ i - . 8, Your para, 7- scsaettfrai pcrpj 3 ne* It does not s-em sensibi to have the military in charge of a m 2r which Is so profoundly r>; tical as a change of government. In fact, I would say to do this "/.: probably be the end of any hope for a change of government here. Thi..-. is said impersonally as a general proposition, since Con* Earkins i. u splendid General and ari o],d friend of mine to who&"2 would gladly en- trust anything I have. I assume that the Embassy and KACV are tijio - handle normal activities under A, that CAS can continue coup con:, a:- ts under 3, and as regards C, we nust simply do the very best ve can xn the light of events after the coup has started. j 9- We appreciate the steps taken as outlined in para. 8. "cv;evjr ; we should remember that the CPTK is not totally inept in its foreign soundings and that these moves should be as discreet and security con- scious as possible. I would, of course, call for these forces only in case of extreme necessity since my hope coincides "frith the Generals that this will be an all- Vietnamese affair* " -- 10. We anticipate that at the. out set of the coup, unless it ncv::; with lightning shrift ness, the GYN will request me or Gfen. Karkins to use our influence to call it off. I believe our responsibilities should be ■ that our influence certainly could not be superior to that of the President who is Commander- in- Chief and that if he is unable to call it off , we would certainly be unable to do so and would merely be risking American lives attempting to interfere in this Vietnamese problem, She Government might request aircraft. Helicopters., :Tor the evacuation of key personalities that would have to be studied closely,, but we would certainly not commit our planes and pilots between the battle lines of the opposing forces. We should, rather, state that we would "be willing to act in this fashion during a truce in which both sides agree to t!*b removal of key personalities. 1 believe that th-re would be tomsdij political problems in attempting to take these personalities to snot;: _-.■ neighboring country and probably we would be best served in deposit:, v.; them in Saip-an where the absence of press, cossm^ications, etc., wovi.. • allow us some leeway to make a further decision as to their ultimate! disposition. If senior Vietnamese personalities and their families sre- guested asylum in the Embassy or other American installations, ve ve ; " ■ probably have to grant it in light of our previous action with resp -\ to Tri Quang. This will undoubtedly present latei; problems but hop^fvlly the new government might feel disposed to help us solve this problem". Naturally, asylum would be granted on the same basis as the Buddhists, i.e., ph.ysi.cal presence at the Embassy or other location. * s I /*% "•• /"» Declassified per Executive Order 13526. Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 Qf\1 J 8 i - , : J - % -/- -. y • ' \ 11- As to requests from the Cenersls, they raay well have need ' . of funds at the last moment with which to ovy off potential opposition. To the extent that these funds can be passed discreetly , I "believe We should furnish thesij provided we* are convinced that the rjroposed coup is sufficiently Well organised to have a good chance of success* If 'they are successful, they will undoubtedly ask for prompt recognition and some assurance that military and economic aid wil l continue at cor&ai level- We should be prepared to make these statements if the issue is clear-cut predicating our position on the President's stated desi continue the War against the VC to final victory, VOA might be an *e t. Snou-ic. tne cout> i"; ->-n important means of disseminating this message. Should th we will have to pick up the pieces as best we can at that t2ae» We have a ccesmitment to the Generals from the August* episode to attempt to help ■in the evacuation of their dependents- We should try to live up to this if conditions will permit. American complicity wiH undoubtedly be charged and there might be some acts taken against specific personalities which we should anticipate and siake provision against as best we can. Should the coup prove indecisive and "a protracted struggle is in progress, we should probably offer our good offices to help resolve the issue in -;ke interest of the war against the VC* This might hold some benefit in terms of concessions by Stflf* We will naturally incur some opprobrium from both sides in our role as mediator- - However } this opprobrium WG&1& ■probably be less distasteful than a deadlock which would open the door, to the VC. We consider such a deadlock as the least likely possibility of the three- , * 12. As regards your para- 10, I do net know what acre proof can be offered than the fact these men are obviously prepared to risk their lives and that they want nothing for themselves* If I am any Judge of human nature, Don's face expressed of sincerity and determination ori *;k: rn.orr.ino" that I spoke to him. Heartily agree that a miscalculation could jewirdize position in Southeast Asia* We also run tremendous riks 'h'j doing nothing. If we were convinced that the coup was going to fail, we would, cf course, do everything we could to stop it. 13. Gen. Harkins has read this and does not concur. • ■: I * I ' ■ i ; • ' f * J •. - Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number; NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 I ? C/ / si - k - - ■ I* - »»3» . J-, CAS 79^07, 30 Oct '63 FROM BUNBY TO LODGE 1. Our reading your thoughtful 2063 leads us to believe a significant difference of shading may exist on one crucial point (see next para.) and on one or two lesser matters easily clarified. 2. We do not accept as a basis for U.S. policy that we have no power to delay or discourage a coup. In your paragraph 12 you say that if you were convinced that the coup was going to fail you would of course do everything you could to stop it. We believe that on this same basis you should take action to persuade coup leaders to stop or delay any operation which, in your best judgment , does not clearly give high prospect of success. We have not considered any betrayal of generals to Diem, and our 79109 explicitly reject that course. We recognize the danger of appearing hostile to generals, but we believe that our own position should be on as firm ground as possible, hence we cannot limit ourselves to proposition implied in your message that only conviction of certain failure justifies intervention. We believe that your standard for intervention should be that stated above. 3. Therefore, if you should conclude that there is not clearly a high propsect of success, you should communicate this doubt to generals in a way calculated to persuade them to desist at least until chances are better. In such a communication you should use the weight of U.S. best advice and explicity reject any implication that we oppose the effort of the generals because of preference for present regime. We recognize need to bear in mind general's interpretation of U.S. role in i960 coup attempt, and your agent should maintain clear distinction between strong and honest advice given as a friend and any opposition to their objectives. t k. We continue to be deeply interested in up-to-the-minute assesment of prospects and are sending this before reply to our CAS 79126. We want con- tinuous exchange latest assessments on this topic. 5. To clarify our intent, paragraph 7 of our 79109 is rescinded and we restate our desires as follows: a. While you are in Saigon you will be Chief of Country Team in all. circumstances and our only instruction is that we are sure it will help to have Harkins fully informed at all stages and to use advice from both him and Smith in framing guidance for coup contacts and assessment. We contir: s to be concerned that neither Conein nor any other reporting source is getting the clarity we would like with respect to alienment of forces and level of determi- nation among generals. b. When you leave Saigon and before there is a coup, Trueha j will be Chief of the Country Team. Our only modification of existing procedures is that in this circumstance we wish all instruction to Conein to be conducted in immediate consultation with Harkins and Smith so that all three kndw what is sold in Conein. Any disagreement among the three on such instruction should be reported to Washington and held for our resolution, * when time permits. c. If you have left and a coup occurs, we believe that emergency situation requires, pending your return, that direction of country team be vested in most senior officer with experience of military decisions, and the officer in our view is Harkins- We do 'not intend that this switch in final responsibility should be publicized in any way, and Harkins will of course be guided in basic posture by our instructions, which follow in paragraph 6. « 1 601+ Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 201 1 * w a-u i - we do not believe that this switch will have the effect suggested in your paragraph 8. * 6- This paragraph contains our present standing instructions for U.S. posture in the event of a coup. a. U.S. authorities will reject appeals foi^ direct intervention from either side, and U.S. -controlled aircraft and other resources will not be committed between the battle lines or in support of either side, without authorization from Washington. b. In event of indecisive contest, U.S. authorities may in their discretion agree to perform any acts agreeable to both sides, such as removal of key personalties or relay of information. In such actions, however, U.S. authorities will strenuously avoid appearance of pressure on either side. It is not in the interest of USG to be or appear to be either instrument of exist- ing government or instrument of coup. c. In the event of imminent or actual failure of coup, U.S. authori- ties may afford asylum in their discretion to those to whom there is any express or implied obligation of this sort. We believe however that in such a case it would be in our interest and probably in interest of those seeking asylum that they seek protection of other Embassies in addition to our own. This point should be made strongly if need arises. d. But once a coup under responsible leadership has begun, and within these restrictions, it is in the interest of the U.S. Government that it should succeed. 7. We have your message about return to Washington and we suggest that all public comment be kept as low-key and quiet as possible, and we also urge that if possible you keep open the exact time of your departure. We are strongly sensitive to great disadvantage of having you out of Saigon if this should turn out to be a week of decision, and if it can be avoided we would prefer not to see you pinned to a fixed hour of departure now. 6O5 U ti&F M ■